2017 French Presidential Election

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it's sadly not freedom of speech here.

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First part of the debate is over.

Fillon as present as his wife in the National Assembly
Le Pen attacked by everyone (except Fillon)
Macron a little out of the debate the first hour but he had the best attack against Le Pen
Mélenchon is quite good attacking Le Pen and Fillon
Hamon attacked Le Pen with a good punchline "you are addicted to crime news" and Macron about money.

you are hostage of your left convictions...

The 2 best are Le Pen and Melanchon. Fillon absent, Hamon in his bisounours world and Macron a little better.

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First part of the debate is over.

Fillon as present as his wife in the National Assembly
Le Pen attacked by everyone (except Fillon)
Macron a little out of the debate the first hour but he had the best attack against Le Pen
Mélenchon is quite good attacking Le Pen and Fillon
Hamon attacked Le Pen with a good punchline "you are addicted to crime news" and Macron about money.

Le Pen is the strongest for me, unfortunately, she seems to always bring the debate towards the subjects she wants to dicuss, even if they are completely unrelated to the intention of the question.

Mélenchon is the sharpest, along with Hamon, but Hamon also looks incredibly scripted compared to the former, even if the script is reasonably good for the tired socialist arguments (just heard him talk about working hours again though) - he just looks like a party guy.

Fillon and Macron by far the weakest. Macron occasionally when he gets animated shows glimpses of interest but on policy he is too vague, which is what everybody feared. Fillon is just silent, he started strongly but now looks totally irrelevant.

100 % agreed. Le Pen is lucky to have begun with her topics. Now she's lost.

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This board has certain rules which are explicitly set out, including the need to "contribute relevant content to the threads" and refraining "do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion", and as is also explicitly set out, as moderator it is to my discretion how to treat such posts - and sometimes I choose to delete posts, without giving any 'infraction points'. The quality of discussion and analysis on the forum has shamefully collapsed in recent years, and this board is one of the few boards which still retains some level of interesting and relevant intelligent analysis, and I really intend to keep it that way. Ceaseless "Let me tell you how it is done in Austria!" posts are not helpful and contribute nothing to this thread, particularly when there's already an active thread about Austria where such posts would obviously be more than welcome (and please don't pretend that you're doing comparative politics, because that's not what comparative politics is). For that reason, for example, I won't go about making "Let me tell you how it is done in Canada!" posts in a thread about Austria, because posts like that wouldn't add any insightful value to the discussion.

Throwing around your favourite little epithets willy-nilly isn't helpful to anyone here and really doesn't elevate the quality of debate, which isn't very high to begin with on this forum. Nor are little "I can do what I want!" fits.

That's all I will say on this topic. If you wish to discuss it further, you may send me a PM.

you are hostage of your left convictions...

Hashemite, I will not lecture you on how to run the forum, but the first measure that would improve the debate exponentially would be to take off the flairs. Everybody here is accused of bias.

because everybody has bias. The problem is when moderators have bias...

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Le Pen had a good start, for 30-40 minutes, but that's it. But for her it doesn't matter anyway. Her voters will vote for her, and she won't convince anybody else.

Mélenchon is really good to animate the debate, but his fight is really against Hamon. The majority will not agree with his proposals.

agree but Le Pen had a good moment now with her protectionism,...

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lol

On the figaro.fr, Fillon is the best...

What a joke, what a bias...

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Opinionway

Marine: 26 +1
Macron: 24 =
Fillon 20 +1
Melanchon 13 (-1)
Hamon 11 (=)
NDA: 3 (-1)
Lassalle: 1 (=)

Macron 61 (-2)
Marine 39 (+2)

Fillon 58 (+1)
Marine 42 (-1)

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I'm suprised by the consensus in the polls: all polls give the same result. Curious.

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Polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 26% (=)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60%, Le Pen 40%

Ifop
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Macron: 24.5% (-0.5)
Fillon: 18% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 16% (+0.5)
Hamon: 9.5% (-0.5)

Second round: Macron 59.5% (-1), Le Pen 40.5%

Elabe, after the debate
Macron: 23.5% (-2)
Le Pen: 23.5% (-0.5)
Fillon: 19% (+1)
Mélenchon: 17% (+2)
Hamon: 9% (-1)

Second round: Macron 62%, Le Pen 38%

A 4 horses race?
The dynamic around Macron worries me a bit.

To be honest I'm really surprised by the bad (non-)campaign of Macron, he is just lucky to have Fillon like his opponent and no other centrist candidates. 2 very bad campaigners for sure.  Melanchon has the momentum and can still gain on hamon voters. But I don't think that he will be qualified. Polls tend to overestimated him.

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Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-1)

Second round
Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Le Pen: 24% (=)
Macron: 23% (=)
Fillon: 19% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 8.5% (-0.5)

Second round
Macron 58.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 41.5%

Yes, it seems to stabilize. Ifop maybe a little off for the second round.

Update with a new poll
Ipsos, for France Télévisions

Macron: 24% (=, since March 27)
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (+4.5)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Hamon: 8% (-4)

Second round
Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38%

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Ifop -paris match poll

Marine 23,5 (-0,5)
Macron 22,5 (-0,5)
Fillon 19 (=)
Melanchon 18,5 (=)
Hamon 8,5 (=)
NPA 3,5 (=)
Poutou 2 (+0,5)
Lasalle 1,5 (+0,5)
Arthaud 0,5 (=)
Asselinneau 0,5 (=)

Turnout: 68 % (+6 compared to 03/28)

Opinionway

Marine 24 (=)
Macron 23 (=)
Fillon 20 (+1)
Melanchon 18 (=)
Hamon 7 (-1)
NDA 3 (=)
Poutou 2 (=)
Asselineau 1 (=)
Lasalle 2 (=)

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Opinionway

Marine 24 (=)
Macron 23 (=)
Fillon 20 (=)
Melanchon 17 (-1)
Hamon 8 (+1)
NDA 3 (=)
Poutou 2 (=)
Lasalle 2 (=)
Asselineau 1 (=)

I think that Marine and Macron have lost a little due to small candidates, who take 5 % of votes.

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Nate Silver says he's worried about pollster herding. Look at how consistent these numbers are:



https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

I share his doubts...

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Elabe poll

04/16-17

Macron 24 (+0,5)
Marine 23 (+0,5)
Fillon 19,5 (-0,5)
Melanchon 18 (-0,5)

Hamon 8 (-1)

NDA 4 (+1)
Poutou 2
Lasalle 0,5
Artaud 0,5
Asselineau 0,5
Cheminade 0

68 % sure to vote (+5)

73 % sure of their choice (Marine 89, Fillon 76, Macron 72, Melanchon 74, Hamon 53

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Ifop poll

Macron 23 (+0,5)
Marine 22,5 (-0,5)
Fillon 19,5 (+0,5)
Melanchon 19,5 (+0,5)
Hamon 7,5 (-0,5)
NDA 4 (=)
Poutou 1,5 (-0,5)
Asselineau 1 (=)
Lasalle 1 (=)

Turnout: 70 % (+1)

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Opinionway

Macron 22 (=)
Marine 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melanchon 18 (+1)
Hamon 8 (-1)
NDA 3 (=)
Lasalle 2 (=)
Poutou 2 (=)
Asselineau 1 (-1)
Arthaud 1 (+1)

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Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate.

I bet on Lasalle

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bva poll (thursday and friday)

Macron 23 (-1)
Marine 23 (=)
Melanchon 19,5 (+0,5)
Fillon 19 (=)
Hamon 8 (-0,5)
NDA 4 (+0,5)

6 % did not express
29% dit not express or can change their vote

86% (=) of Le Pen voters are sure
85 (+4) of Fillon voters
73 (-1) of Macron voters
70 (-5) of Melanchon voters
62 (+4) of Hamon voters

Odoxa poll (60 % of the poll after the terrorist attack)

Macron 24,5
Marine 23 (+1)
Fillon 19
Melanchon 19
Hamon 7,5

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What time should exit polls be expected again?

The projections (which is based on real results, not a poll) will be released at 8pm, if everything is okay.

There are two uncertainties:
-Will the pollsters have enough time to collect the result and calculate their projections? This year they will have only one hour, not two. I read that to be sure to have a projection at 8pm the pollsters will double their selected polling stations where they collect the first results. At 8pm it will be also the first projection while in the past it was the second or third actualization, it might be less accurate.
-We always had in France a clear picture of the result at 8pm, this time it could be different, the media are preparing for a "too close to call" situation, so instead of 2 faces at 8pm we could see one (if only one candidate is sure to be in the runoff), or three, or four.

Also the pollsters have confirmed to the national commission of polls that they will not conduct any exit poll Sunday, so there is absolutely no way to have any idea of the result before 8pm.

In 2002, was it considered certain at 8pm that Jospin was out of the runoff and Le Pen in?

yes

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last poll (the newspaper "tribune de genève" doesn't say wich polling firm is). The majority of polled after the terrorist attack.

Macron 24 (-0,5)
Marine 23 (+1)
Fillon 20,5 (+1)
Melanchon (-0,5)
Hamon 7
NDA 3
Asselineau 1
Lasalle 1

the pollster say that there is a (minor) boost for Marine and Fillon due to the terrorist attack.

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Is there any chance of a further squeeze on Hamon and/or Dupont-Aignan voters towards the four front runners?

it's a possibility...

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I think the Macron and Melenchon vote from the polls will not fully materialize tomorrow, much like the VdB and Griss* votes did not. Macron's 2-3% will likely go to Fillon in the end and Melenchon's 3-4% will go to Le Pen. As well as 1% from Dupont.

*I voted for centrist Griss in round one here, but I knew that it wouldn't be enough for her to reach the runoff. I'd also vote for Macron, but I don't think he might get there after all.

A month or 2 ago I thought that Le Pen vs. Fillon would never happen, but tomorrow we might just get that ...

I bet again on macron. His voters are Bayrou-Hollande 2012 and it was 37 % of the voters.