2017 French Presidential Election

[MAINEiac4434]

Bizarre.

[MAINEiac4434]

Wow, surprising people have very strong negative opinions about Hamon. Also suffixing that Macron is the only candidate above 30%.

[MAINEiac4434]

https://twitter.com/xfrison/status/843939495544274946

Point d'étape : #Fillon, l'air absent, inaudible, le grand perdant de la soirée pour le moment. #LeGrandDebat

Fillon is basically absent.

[MAINEiac4434]

Well there's a not so secret one on the payroll too:

[MAINEiac4434]

Fillon got paid 50k to arrange a meeting between a Lebanese millionaire and Putin.

Jesus Christ

[MAINEiac4434]

At this point I feel like we're a week away from a headline reading "Fillon pimped out daughter for $20 and a McDonald's gift card"

[MAINEiac4434]

Fillon had access to his mobile phone during the debate and received texts from his communications advisor (Le Figaro, Le Parisien)

This is a joke right?

What the hell François!!!

[MAINEiac4434]

macron 63% lol same polls who said that brexit will fail and trump will lose.

first round will be le pen 30%, fillon and macron at about 20% each, and in second round it's all possible, le pen vs either fillon or macron 50-50. now laugh like you all laugh at trump chances to win. this site and pollsters are highly biased.

Le Pen can't be bailed out by the electoral college in France.

[MAINEiac4434]

A new low.

Fillon accuses Hollande to be behind the revelations on him. "Never a head of State went so far in illegality"

"That Donald guy won in America, let's be more like him."

[MAINEiac4434]

I find all this right-wing PS support of Macron funny, because the PRG – which itself is to the right of the right of the PS – is backing Hamon, at least according to their website.

[MAINEiac4434]

Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it.

Strong debate performance

[MAINEiac4434]

Why are people suddenly falling in love with Melenchon? If he becomes the new French left, I will never be able to support it.

Strong debate performance

Not to mention a majority of people are just now starting to pay attention to the whole circus. Up until now it was just all background noise about Fillon's and Le Pen's judicial troubles, but with the first debate the campaign has actually started and people are now aware of at least 5 candidates instead of just 3 or 4.

If that were true wouldn't Hamon have also seen a rise in his polling numbers? (Assuming the 3  "well known ones" were Fillon, Macron and Le Pen)

Hamon didn't expand his base while Melenchon began taking it away.

[MAINEiac4434]

1. Will Valls endorsement hurt Macron?

2. Will the Socialist Party falter (kind of like the Dutch Labour Party), and if so, will En Marche! take its place?

1. Maybe. I'm inclined to believe that those that dislike Manuel Valls already dislike Emmanuel Macron.

2. Yes, it will falter. But the left-wing parties (Parti de Gauche or Parti Communiste or Front de Gauche) will take the lefties and En Marche ! will take the rest, a bit like how the PvdA support split between GroenLinks and D66.

[MAINEiac4434]

Well those second round numbers could certainly be better...

[MAINEiac4434]

What about Royal? Was she a good candidate?

Ségolène was slightly less moderate than François.

[MAINEiac4434]

Macron just radiates Hillary Clinton vibes to me. 

on the contrary.

valls would have been much more like hillary, with the difference, that he seems to be much more principled and there aren't enough push-forces behind him in france, to get him into round 2.

macron is a charismatic outsider and a new force, while le pen is politically old and her ideas and her presence are rusty and well-known.

Yeah, comparing Macron with Hillary is odd. She was a terribly flawed candidate from the start with low favourable ratings. Macron can be compared with a younger version of Alexander Van der Bellen. Macron should get at least what the polls show. The question is if Le Pen underpolls or not. I guess not.

Macron is more the Obama type: Mostly the same as Hillary ideological but for some unknown reason people think he represents change.

Because he's not running under the PS or LR banner.

[MAINEiac4434]

For once, someone using "literally" on the Internet isn't exaggerating. LaRouchies are crackpots.

[MAINEiac4434]

These are usually more amusing than anything else you can glean from them, but France24 has made an English-version Vote Compass for the election.

I got Arthaud first (retch), Hamon second (cool), Poutou third, Macron and Cheminade tied for fourth, Melenchon fifth, Dupont-Aignan sixth, Fillon seventh and Le Pen (unsurprisingly) eighth.

[MAINEiac4434]

It's funny, I always feel like I'm doing "good" in these polls. Did a similar one for the German state of Schleswig-Holstein the other day and had the CDU down at 25%. In the one for Baden-Würtemberg before the last election I had Die Linke at 96,2% - I was virtually a walking Die Linke program.  
  
Well, here are my results. I expected Hamon to be first but then again I have no idea about Arthaud:  
  
Arthaud: 78%  
Hamon: 76%  
Poutou: 73%  
Mélenchon: 70%  
Macron: 62%  
Chiminade: 55%  
Dupont-Aigner: 49%  
Fillon: 45%  
Le Pen: 44%  
  
Somewhat funny that beautiful flawless Emmanuel is rather low in this while on the political landscape thingy my point is basically on his.  
  

Arthaud's the candidate for Lutte Ouvrier - Workers' Struggle. It's a Trotskyist party.

[MAINEiac4434]

Why hasn't Poutou dropped and endorsed Mélenchon? I understand where it wouldn't matter if he didn't look likely to win, but now that he's breaking 20 that extra 2% could go a long way.

Poutou has like 2%. And most of his support would go to Arthaud.

[MAINEiac4434]

Remind me again what FBM is supposed to stand for?

The status quo.

[MAINEiac4434]

I found in a portuguese blogue this graphic which shows the support of immigrant sons to the different candidates: (Macron, Fillon and Hamon aren't in it, so don't know if it's shows an acurate picture but here goes.)



Portuguese immigrant descent are more likely to vote Le Pen... Yikes

That's from the 2012 election.

[MAINEiac4434]

  How on earth are the Le Pen odds to win the presidency so high?

No one wants to give her no chance after Brexit and Trump.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.

Didn't you vote for Jill Stein?

[MAINEiac4434]

Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.

Didn't you vote for Jill Stein?

Can you blame him when a fraud like Hillary was on the ticket for Dems? Never understood how someone so radically left with -8 odd Eco score can support a centrist like HRC, but

CENTRISTS ARE BETTER THAN FASCISTS

Under the American electoral system, only Hillary Clinton could've prevented a xenophobic nationalist from becoming President. So her platform wasn't perfectly socialist? I don't care, she's miles goddamn better than the alternative.