2017 French Presidential Election (user search)
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Author Topic: 2017 French Presidential Election  (Read 104323 times)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,752


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: March 24, 2017, 05:26:00 PM »

Are many Hamon supporters switching to Mélenchon? Or are they not bothering since Mélenchon doesn't have that much of a chance at making top two, either?
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jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,752


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2017, 04:43:53 PM »

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)

Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency.

And the only chance for Le Pen to win in the second round.

That would be Fillon.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,752


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2017, 07:03:53 AM »

A French Town Known for Picking Presidents Sees Big Upset Ahead
The foie gras town of Donzy is almost always right in picking a winner, and this year it sees Fillon beating Le Pen.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-04-09/a-french-town-known-for-picking-presidents-sees-big-upset-ahead



There are 36,000 communes in France, so there are probably others that have been good bellwethers for the last few elections, but have different results for the current election.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,752


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2017, 02:22:39 AM »

I just found out that Melenchon wants to give French citizenship to Julian Assange.

F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM F[INKS] HIM

So you'd support Le Pen over him in a runoff?
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,752


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2017, 04:42:49 PM »

 
 
Now.   
 
OpinionWay: 
 
Macron 22% (=) 
Le Pen 22% (-1%) 
Fillon 21% (+1%) 
Mélenchon 18% (+1%) 
Hamon 8% (-1%) 
Dupont-Aignan 3% (=) 
Poutou 2% (=) 
Lassalle 2% (=) 
 
2nd Round: 
Macron vs. Le Pen: 64% - 36% (+2% Macron) 
Fillon vs. Le Pen: 60% - 40% (+2% Fillon) 
 
The sample size was unusually large for OpinionWay with 2,168. Normal is ~1,400.

Amazing how close this is getting to a 4 way tie. They should poll all 6 runoff possibilities.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,752


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #5 on: April 21, 2017, 02:52:15 AM »

Poll Elabe (before the attack)

Macron: 24% (=)
Le Pen: 21.5% (-1.5)
Fillon: 20% (+0.5)
Mélenchon: 19.5% (+1.5)
Hamon: 7% (-1)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (-0,5)
The others: at or under 1%

It's the last day of polls today, I don't know if we will have a poll done after the attack.
Does France have a "no polling can be published period" like Spain? If so, will we see polling done at mysterious Andorran shops?

A giveaway will be if it's a poll for "Co-Prince of Andorra". Tongue
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