2017 French Presidential Election

[windjammer]

Well, who was the creator of the former thread?

[windjammer]

OK, Hamon is f**ked.

I would vote for Mélenchon if he has a chance to reach the run off.
A d you?

[windjammer]

Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

For the record he was assassinated.

Bérégovoy was a very strange suicide and totally different to Fillon. He's completely lost it but the LR is not powerful enough.

[windjammer]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

This. There will be some recomposition between 3 poles: the left (Mélenchon/Hamon electorate) , the center (around Macron) and the far right (Fillon/Le Pen)

[windjammer]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

This. There will be some recomposition between 3 poles: the left (Mélenchon/Hamon electorate) , the center (around Macron) and the far right (Fillon/Le Pen)

Melencon/Hamon is far left if Fillon is far right. Melenchon is almost as left wing as Le Pen is right wing, and Hamon is just as left wing as Fillon was right wing pre-Penelopegate.

No this is totally bullsh**t what you're saying

[windjammer]

Thanks, parochial boy, very interesting! According to ifop turnout would only be 65%, and that percentage is relatively stable. Weird. In 2012, turnout in the first round was 79%.

By the way, 5 years ago, we expected as well a low turnout, in the end it was fine. I think turnout will go down, but 65% is really to low to be considered as a scenario.

[windjammer]

Yesterday, Fillon compared himself to Vercingetorix, winner of battle of Gergovia (52 BC) against Julius Caesar "the frontrunner in the polls".

The downside of this is that he did not say that ultimately Julius Caesar won the second round in Alesia.

A fitting comparison to be honest. Vercingetorix was literally betrayed by his "clan".

[windjammer]

Final prediction
First Round
Macron 28 (+5) ✓
Le Pen 23 ✓
Melenchon 19 X
Fillon 17 X
Hamon 11 X
Minor candidates 2 X

Second Round
Safe EM-Solid
Macron 68-32

How do you guys think?

Totally wrong

[windjammer]

About the Fillon's suits. After the controversy he claimed that he gave back the suits to the man who had offered them.

Mediapart says that Fillon did not gave back the real luxury suits, but gave back 3 others suits, less prestigious.

Robert Bourgi (who offered the suits) also says that Fillon asked him to lie.

This is just amazing. I mean wow.

He's not only corrupt, but a big cretin as well.

[windjammer]

Turnout at noon nationwide: 28,54% (+0.25)

And in my polling station: 35.8%. In my city in 2012 turnout was 3pts lower than the national rate

In which area do you live?

[windjammer]

Just voted!

[windjammer]

Any good live updates website to read tidbits throughout the day as they come live?

Also, side note. I saw video of Le Pen leaving her vehicle to vote. She seemed to be in a one car motorcade. Is that typical in France? In the US, even more minor candidates would at least have like a black SUV with some security.

Isn't a one-car motorcade just a car?

But to your question, you must ask yourself: when was the last time a French president or presidential candidate has been assassinated? I'm guessing it's not that frequent.

The last one assassinate was in the 1920's/1930's

[windjammer]

Radio Londres:
https://twitter.com/RadioLondres_fr/status/856140298216460289

"Mehr
En Amérique du Nord, c'est leur projet. Je répète, en Amérique du Nord, c'est leur projet #RadioLondres"

Marine Le Pen won North America?

Macron I think