What's More Likely? An Independent Scotland or a Reunited Ireland?

[Frodo]

What's more likely to happen sooner -assuming it happens at all?  Scotland eventually (I'm not just talking about 2018 or 2024, or whatever year is eventually decided on) voting for independence, or Northern Ireland deciding in a referendum to unite with the Republic of Ireland?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The former, but neither will.

[ApatheticAustrian]

The former, but neither will.

this

"europe of regions" would be the biggest chance, i guess.

[Cashew]

The fact is that an independent Scotland is basically a prerequisite for weakening to connection of the Ulster Scots to the UK, and making Irish reunification a seriously debated topic, option 1 obviously.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm going against the grain and saying the latter.

The fact is that an independent Scotland is basically a prerequisite for weakening to connection of the Ulster Scots to the UK, and making Irish reunification a seriously debated topic, option 1 obviously.

No.

[parochial boy]

Looming Catholic majority in Northern Ireland

[Lord Halifax]

Looming Catholic majority in Northern Ireland

Yes, and if the British government ever gets tired of subsidizing NI on a massive scale (the place has a bloated public sector, a lot of people on welfare and very little industry left) the tacit Catholic support of the status quo might start to dwindle. Add the effects of Brexit and a hard border and a United Ireland could become a realistic option at some point.   

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looming Catholic majority in Northern Ireland

Yes, and if the British government ever gets tired of subsidizing NI on a massive scale (the place has a bloated public sector, a lot of people on welfare and very little industry left) the tacit Catholic support of the status quo might start to dwindle. Add the effects of Brexit and a hard border and a United Ireland could become a realistic option at some point.   

Never underestimate the power of jingoism. That's the only sentiment more powerful in Little England than its urge to mortify the poor.

[TDAS04]

Option 1, but most likely neither.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Option one, and it's not even remotely close.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Option one, and it's not even remotely close.

[Intell]

Option one, and it's not even remotely close.

[Clyde1998]

Option one, and it's not even remotely close.

[afleitch]

Option one, and it's not even remotely close.

I think it will facilitate a united Ireland however. Northern Ireland would be isolated with no effective 'border' between it and the rest of the UK.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Actually now that I reread the question, the first. If you assume both happen, Scottish independence would have happened sooner (I think Irish reunification is more likely to occur, but not within the next decade.)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Option one, and it's not even remotely close.

I think it will facilitate a united Ireland however. Northern Ireland would be isolated with no effective 'border' between it and the rest of the UK.

That's correct. I think Scottish Independence is a necessary precondition for UI to even be considered.

[Slow Learner]

The former by a yuge margin.

Looming Catholic majority in Northern Ireland

About half of catholics support the union. Only a quarter want reunification.

[afleitch]

Option one, and it's not even remotely close.

I think it will facilitate a united Ireland however. Northern Ireland would be isolated with no effective 'border' between it and the rest of the UK.

That's correct. I think Scottish Independence is a necessary precondition for UI to even be considered.

I was also initially concerned about any relationship between Ireland and Scotland in the event of independence (competition wise) but Brexit has shifted that. Northern Ireland would probably end up in the centre of a fairly balanced economic 'bloc'.

[parochial boy]

The former by a yuge margin.

Looming Catholic majority in Northern Ireland

About half of catholics support the union. Only a quarter want reunification.

Yeah, I have seen that before, but to what extend is this conditional on the Good Friday agreement holding up, and not be demolished by the DUP?

Also, it's interesting that it seems like most Sinn Fein voters don't actually want reunification.

[ObserverIE]

The former by a yuge margin.

Looming Catholic majority in Northern Ireland

About half of catholics support the union. Only a quarter want reunification.

Yeah, I have seen that before, but to what extend is this conditional on the Good Friday agreement holding up, and not be demolished by the DUP?

Also, it's interesting that it seems like most Sinn Fein voters don't actually want reunification.

I would have said that it's a mixture of pragmatic support for the status quo and an underlying worry about how unionists would react to being outvoted in a referendum.

All that, however, requires the GFA to hold up, and it also requires British government policies not to actively f*** up things (i.e. through a catastrophic Brexit). It would be a mistake to view the "support" as being based on emotional attachment; it isn't.

Unionists (and the British government) need to be aware that the demographics are shifting in the long-term (last month's result should have brought this home) and that it is going to be necessary for unionism to accept a progressive "greening" of the structures. The most secure border is the least visible one; the longest-lasting British Northern Ireland is one where Irishness can be comfortably expressed, and not just in ways laid down by unionism.

[kyc0705]

The latter only becomes likely if the former is pulled off relatively smoothly.