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Author Topic: Florida 1996  (Read 513 times)
libertpaulian
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« on: March 19, 2017, 10:19:17 am »
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I was watching the CNN coverage of the 1996 Presidential Election, and the first thing I noticed was how different CNN was.  However, something else caught my eyes and ears as well.  As soon as the polls closed in Florida, CNN was able to call it for President Clinton.

In the post-Reagan era, which I define as the 1992 Election and onward, Florida is usually a swing state that doesn't get called until late into the night (or a month later, in the case of 2000).  However, Florida was able to be called all but immediately in 1996. 

Why was Florida decided so quickly?  Did Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade liberalize that much in a few years?  Were there enough rednecks in Northern Florida that still had some semblance of loyalty to the Democratic Party?  Were the elderly voters in Florida galvanized about Medicare and Social Security?  Some combination of the three?
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Region Rat.  Yes, Indiana, we're Hoosiers too!

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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2017, 12:59:02 pm »
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1996:



2004:


2012:


2016:

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Nym90
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2017, 01:24:56 pm »
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Well for starters, Clinton won it by 6 points, and it's been closer than that in every election since.

Looking at the county map, it's amazing how much the Gulf Coast north of Tampa has swung towards the GOP. That seems to be a less discussed aspect of Florida's political geography that has kept the GOP competitive despite massive Dem gains in the I-4 corridor and in the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach area.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2017, 01:37:57 pm »
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Well for starters, Clinton won it by 6 points, and it's been closer than that in every election since.

Looking at the county map, it's amazing how much the Gulf Coast north of Tampa has swung towards the GOP. That seems to be a less discussed aspect of Florida's political geography that has kept the GOP competitive despite massive Dem gains in the I-4 corridor and in the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach area.
Well, that also contributes to my question.  How was WJC able to win FL so handily, which in turn enabled Florida to be called right away?
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Region Rat.  Yes, Indiana, we're Hoosiers too!

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Computer89
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2017, 01:43:16 pm »
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look at the county difference between 1996 and the others
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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2017, 03:59:38 pm »
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Well for starters, Clinton won it by 6 points, and it's been closer than that in every election since.

Looking at the county map, it's amazing how much the Gulf Coast north of Tampa has swung towards the GOP. That seems to be a less discussed aspect of Florida's political geography that has kept the GOP competitive despite massive Dem gains in the I-4 corridor and in the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/Palm Beach area.
Well, that also contributes to my question.  How was WJC able to win FL so handily, which in turn enabled Florida to be called right away?


This was around the time that Gingrich was heavily pushing cuts in Medicare and seniors were still largely of the New Deal generation in 1996.

Also, as the maps computer89 posted show a lot of counties in the mid-Panhandle and the western part of the state were still Democratic at the time.
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