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| |-+  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, Justice TJ)
| | |-+  What would be your EV map prediction for Trump vs. Warren?
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Author Topic: What would be your EV map prediction for Trump vs. Warren?  (Read 931 times)
DPKdebator
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« on: March 19, 2017, 05:10:49 pm »
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What would your prediction be for the 2020 election in the case of a Trump vs. Warren matchup?


D/R >90%: safe
D/R >50%: likely
D/R >30%: lean

355 - 183
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 05:47:01 pm by DPKdebator »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2017, 05:34:20 pm »
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Well, you have way too many variables in there, not to mention that the specific set of variables you're using is the same as the Trump vs. Warren thread in "alternative elections."

So let's not assume Trump's approvals are 55-60. Let's also assume that Warren easily won re-election in 2018. Incumbent Democrats in Massachusetts have an easy time getting elected. So let's say she won by 20%, which would actually be the best performance a Republican had taking on an incumbent Dem in that state since 1994.

Now, we're not assuming Trump's approvals are 55-60, but I'm not going to say what they will be. That's a variable that supercedes all else. If his approvals are 55-60, he'd beat any challenger handily. If they're in the 30s, even HRC would beat him. The only variable we're going to test is Warren, whose favourables are also hard to predict.

Despite all that, I would still say Trump starts out at an advantage against Warren relative to other candidates, because of Warren's weaknesses. The map below reflects this. It is a "neutral" map, so it assumes Trump's approval is roughly equal to Warren's favourables, which is a likely outcome imo because neither are all that well liked among a general populace. Increase one's ratings relative to the other, and things shift more in their direction, though safe states remain safe barring a landslide.



30% = Tilt
40% = Lean
50% = Likely
60% = Safe

219 Trump
216 Warren
103 Tossup
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 05:36:13 pm by Deputy Chair Spenstar »Logged

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DPKdebator
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2017, 05:47:27 pm »
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Well, you have way too many variables in there, not to mention that the specific set of variables you're using is the same as the Trump vs. Warren thread in "alternative elections."

You're right with that... fixed it to be more open.
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2017, 05:58:15 pm »
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Well, you have way too many variables in there, not to mention that the specific set of variables you're using is the same as the Trump vs. Warren thread in "alternative elections."

You're right with that... fixed it to be more open.

You know, a thread talking about what the EV map would look like if Trump had a 55-60% approval, without talking about the opponent, would also be somewhat interesting.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2017, 06:16:28 pm »
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Well, you have way too many variables in there, not to mention that the specific set of variables you're using is the same as the Trump vs. Warren thread in "alternative elections."

You're right with that... fixed it to be more open.

You know, a thread talking about what the EV map would look like if Trump had a 55-60% approval, without talking about the opponent, would also be somewhat interesting.

It would be a little strange for me to just make another thread on that so quickly after this one, maybe I'll make it tomorrow.
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ISideWith: Trump 100%, Johnson 39%, Clinton 17%, Stein 15%

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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2017, 06:38:35 pm »
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Assuming Trump's approvals improve to around 45%, I would guess it looks like this:



Trump - 270
Warren - 268

Warren wins the national popular vote by 1%, Pennsylvania by <1%, and Michigan by 3%.  Trump wins Wisconsin by 2%, Florida by 2%, and North Carolina and Georgia by 4%.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 07:19:14 pm by Ronnie »Logged

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« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2017, 05:38:46 pm »
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What would your prediction be for the 2020 election in the case of a Trump vs. Warren matchup?


D/R >90%: safe
D/R >50%: likely
D/R >30%: lean

355 - 183

I would guess approvals at 52 A/44 D, unemployment at 3.8% in August/September/October.
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« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2017, 07:22:59 pm »
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Warren: 297
Adolf: 241
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« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2017, 07:30:56 pm »
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Trump steps down and Zombie Hitler wins the GOP nom? Interesting. Wink
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« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2017, 08:09:10 pm »
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Warren would be favored, but it would be close. Maybe something like the 278 freiwall plus one of Florida, North Carolina, or Arizona.
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« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2017, 08:36:19 pm »
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Considering Warren lost by more than 5 points in a poll in which more people voted for "generic Democrat," Trump would win by carrying every state how won in 2016 with the additions of Nevada, New Hampshire, and Minnesota (possibly Colorado and Virginia if she does even worse than I think).
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« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2017, 08:57:07 pm »
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This far out, I'm not sure what the map would look like, but I will say that I think people have been overly dismissive of Warren, ruling her out because she's "uncharismatic" or "professorial". Give her a few months to campaign and I think she would really strike a chord with the electorate.
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Castro
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« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2017, 09:06:28 pm »
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2017, 02:51:32 pm »
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...and this is how things go if the President's approval rating is around 30%.





« Last Edit: March 25, 2017, 12:47:43 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



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« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2017, 02:20:37 pm »
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Adolf: 241

lmao

Anyway:



290 - 248

Warren wins the PV by 2, wins Maine, Minnesota and Nevada by less than 2, MI by 3 or 4, and loses FL by 1.5, PA by 1 and WI by 4.  
« Last Edit: March 23, 2017, 02:48:56 pm by MT Treasurer »Logged

Even if you don't agree with the women stuff, it's really hard to argue that NH is still a competitive swing state. And after 2016 (when Kelly Ayotte and Donald Trump lose the state, despite a very close presidential race and Republicans holding the Senate), this will become clear to you as well, Kingpoleon.

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« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2017, 08:14:42 pm »
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Adolf: 241

lmao

Anyway:



290 - 248

Warren wins the PV by 2, wins Maine, Minnesota and Nevada by less than 2, MI by 3 or 4, and loses FL by 1.5, PA by 1 and WI by 4.  

This, but I think she flips Arizona. 

Booker would be this map + NC and GA for the win.
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« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2017, 04:47:07 pm »
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Trump wins with 345

90%=Solid
50%=Likely
30%=Lean
« Last Edit: March 26, 2017, 04:49:09 pm by Ridge »Logged
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« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2017, 05:37:24 pm »
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...and this is how things go if the President's approval rating is around 30%.






lol no
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« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2017, 06:06:07 pm »
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This is probably a ~30% incumbent R President approval ratings map with no tossups, with the three different shadings meaning lean/likely/safe.

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twenty42
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« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2017, 06:56:33 pm »
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Ironically, Trump will win the popular vote but lose electoral votes compared to 2016. Michigan goes Dem again, and 2016 MI will be compared to 2000 NH. MN and ME-AL will flip a la 2004 NM and IA. Warren will target AZ much more than Hillary did, and she will win it by the narrowest of margins. VA will confirm its status as a Likely D state, and WI and PA will transition to lean R. The Trump campaign will target NH hard and win it by 332 votes, and MT Treasurer will deactivate his account on Wednesday morning.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2017, 07:06:31 pm »
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...and this is how things go if the President's approval rating is around 30%.


lol no

Note: that is an approval of 30%. He would get about 36% of the popular vote, which is as low as for any nominee for any Presidential nominee, incumbent or challenger, in a binary election.

This map
(1) may be unduly charitable for President Trump in electoral results with 20% approval, and
(2) sets a condition (30% approval) that I see  unlikely to happen. I see 35% as a reasonable floor unless he does somethin unimaginable (and for now unmentionable).



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twenty42
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« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2017, 07:26:44 pm »
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...and this is how things go if the President's approval rating is around 30%.


lol no

Note: that is an approval of 30%. He would get about 36% of the popular vote, which is as low as for any nominee for any Presidential nominee, incumbent or challenger, in a binary election.

This map
(1) may be unduly charitable for President Trump in electoral results with 20% approval, and
(2) sets a condition (30% approval) that I see  unlikely to happen. I see 35% as a reasonable floor unless he does somethin unimaginable (and for now unmentionable).






Nope.

This is Trump's absolute floor, regardless of approval ratings or any event...



Those states are going to vote for the candidate with the R next to their name. This map may change by 2040, but not 2020.
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Holmes
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« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2017, 09:16:07 pm »
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Not NE-02.
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