Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 21, 2017, 05:50:39 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Cast your Ballot in the 2016 Mock Election

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter, Justice TJ)
| | |-+  What would be your EV map prediction for Trump vs. Warren?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: What would be your EV map prediction for Trump vs. Warren?  (Read 1186 times)
DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 677
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: 2.26

View Profile
« on: March 19, 2017, 05:10:49 pm »
Ignore

What would your prediction be for the 2020 election in the case of a Trump vs. Warren matchup?


D/R >90%: safe
D/R >50%: likely
D/R >30%: lean

355 - 183
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 05:47:01 pm by DPKdebator »Logged

Political Matrix score: Economic +2.58, Social +2.26

Political Typology Quiz: Young Outsider

Political Compass score: Economic Left/Right .13, Social Libertarian/Authoritarian .82

Political Spectrum score: Right 1.79, Libertarian 2.26

"Every child in America should be able to play outside without fear." - President Donald J. Trump
Deputy Chair Spenstar
Spenstar3D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1559
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2017, 05:34:20 pm »
Ignore

Well, you have way too many variables in there, not to mention that the specific set of variables you're using is the same as the Trump vs. Warren thread in "alternative elections."

So let's not assume Trump's approvals are 55-60. Let's also assume that Warren easily won re-election in 2018. Incumbent Democrats in Massachusetts have an easy time getting elected. So let's say she won by 20%, which would actually be the best performance a Republican had taking on an incumbent Dem in that state since 1994.

Now, we're not assuming Trump's approvals are 55-60, but I'm not going to say what they will be. That's a variable that supercedes all else. If his approvals are 55-60, he'd beat any challenger handily. If they're in the 30s, even HRC would beat him. The only variable we're going to test is Warren, whose favourables are also hard to predict.

Despite all that, I would still say Trump starts out at an advantage against Warren relative to other candidates, because of Warren's weaknesses. The map below reflects this. It is a "neutral" map, so it assumes Trump's approval is roughly equal to Warren's favourables, which is a likely outcome imo because neither are all that well liked among a general populace. Increase one's ratings relative to the other, and things shift more in their direction, though safe states remain safe barring a landslide.



30% = Tilt
40% = Lean
50% = Likely
60% = Safe

219 Trump
216 Warren
103 Tossup
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 05:36:13 pm by Deputy Chair Spenstar »Logged

Author of Hindsight is 2020!
Normally a D-NY or O-NY but I'm studying abroad in Leeds this year!
Your timelines are garbage and the 2020 democratic primaries will be full of blue Dogs from which Jim Webb Prevails.
DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 677
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: 2.26

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2017, 05:47:27 pm »
Ignore

Well, you have way too many variables in there, not to mention that the specific set of variables you're using is the same as the Trump vs. Warren thread in "alternative elections."

You're right with that... fixed it to be more open.
Logged

Political Matrix score: Economic +2.58, Social +2.26

Political Typology Quiz: Young Outsider

Political Compass score: Economic Left/Right .13, Social Libertarian/Authoritarian .82

Political Spectrum score: Right 1.79, Libertarian 2.26

"Every child in America should be able to play outside without fear." - President Donald J. Trump
Deputy Chair Spenstar
Spenstar3D
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1559
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -7.22

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2017, 05:58:15 pm »
Ignore

Well, you have way too many variables in there, not to mention that the specific set of variables you're using is the same as the Trump vs. Warren thread in "alternative elections."

You're right with that... fixed it to be more open.

You know, a thread talking about what the EV map would look like if Trump had a 55-60% approval, without talking about the opponent, would also be somewhat interesting.
Logged

Author of Hindsight is 2020!
Normally a D-NY or O-NY but I'm studying abroad in Leeds this year!
Your timelines are garbage and the 2020 democratic primaries will be full of blue Dogs from which Jim Webb Prevails.
DPKdebator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 677
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: 2.26

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2017, 06:16:28 pm »
Ignore

Well, you have way too many variables in there, not to mention that the specific set of variables you're using is the same as the Trump vs. Warren thread in "alternative elections."

You're right with that... fixed it to be more open.

You know, a thread talking about what the EV map would look like if Trump had a 55-60% approval, without talking about the opponent, would also be somewhat interesting.

It would be a little strange for me to just make another thread on that so quickly after this one, maybe I'll make it tomorrow.
Logged

Political Matrix score: Economic +2.58, Social +2.26

Political Typology Quiz: Young Outsider

Political Compass score: Economic Left/Right .13, Social Libertarian/Authoritarian .82

Political Spectrum score: Right 1.79, Libertarian 2.26

"Every child in America should be able to play outside without fear." - President Donald J. Trump
Ronnie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7650
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2017, 06:38:35 pm »
Ignore

Assuming Trump's approvals improve to around 45%, I would guess it looks like this:



Trump - 270
Warren - 268

Warren wins the national popular vote by 1%, Pennsylvania by <1%, and Michigan by 3%.  Trump wins Wisconsin by 2%, Florida by 2%, and North Carolina and Georgia by 4%.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 07:19:14 pm by Ronnie »Logged

Born, raised, and currently residing in Southern California
Kingpoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13834
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2017, 05:38:46 pm »
Ignore

What would your prediction be for the 2020 election in the case of a Trump vs. Warren matchup?


D/R >90%: safe
D/R >50%: likely
D/R >30%: lean

355 - 183

I would guess approvals at 52 A/44 D, unemployment at 3.8% in August/September/October.
Logged



"America now is stumbling through the darkness of hatred and divisiveness. Our values, our principles, and our determination to succeed as a free and democratic people will give us a torch to light the way." - Gerald Ford

Economic: 1.38
Social: -2.36
Clay
GWBFan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4484


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -7.83

P

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2017, 07:22:59 pm »
Ignore



Warren: 297
Adolf: 241
Logged
Peebs
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -6.43

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2017, 07:30:56 pm »
Ignore

Trump steps down and Zombie Hitler wins the GOP nom? Interesting. Wink
Logged


Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5974
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.19, S: -6.17

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2017, 08:09:10 pm »
Ignore

Warren would be favored, but it would be close. Maybe something like the 278 freiwall plus one of Florida, North Carolina, or Arizona.
Logged

A notorious art thief and prolific womanizer

TheSaint250
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1520


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2017, 08:36:19 pm »
Ignore

Considering Warren lost by more than 5 points in a poll in which more people voted for "generic Democrat," Trump would win by carrying every state how won in 2016 with the additions of Nevada, New Hampshire, and Minnesota (possibly Colorado and Virginia if she does even worse than I think).
Logged

Moderate Republican

"It is time that the great center of our people, who reject the violence and unreasonableness of both the extreme right and the extreme left, searched their consciences, mustered their moral and physical courage, shed their intimidated silence, and declare their consciences." -Margaret Chase Smith

anthony1691
anty1691
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 347


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -7.48

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: March 20, 2017, 08:57:07 pm »
Ignore

This far out, I'm not sure what the map would look like, but I will say that I think people have been overly dismissive of Warren, ruling her out because she's "uncharismatic" or "professorial". Give her a few months to campaign and I think she would really strike a chord with the electorate.
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9497
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: March 20, 2017, 09:06:28 pm »
Ignore


Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15632
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2017, 02:51:32 pm »
Ignore

...and this is how things go if the President's approval rating is around 30%.





« Last Edit: March 25, 2017, 12:47:43 pm by pbrower2a »Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14161
United States


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2017, 02:20:37 pm »
Ignore

Adolf: 241

lmao

Anyway:



290 - 248

Warren wins the PV by 2, wins Maine, Minnesota and Nevada by less than 2, MI by 3 or 4, and loses FL by 1.5, PA by 1 and WI by 4.  
« Last Edit: March 23, 2017, 02:48:56 pm by MT Treasurer »Logged





Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3300
View Profile
« Reply #15 on: March 23, 2017, 08:14:42 pm »
Ignore

Adolf: 241

lmao

Anyway:



290 - 248

Warren wins the PV by 2, wins Maine, Minnesota and Nevada by less than 2, MI by 3 or 4, and loses FL by 1.5, PA by 1 and WI by 4.  

This, but I think she flips Arizona. 

Booker would be this map + NC and GA for the win.
Logged
Ridge
Rookie
*
Posts: 48
View Profile
« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2017, 04:47:07 pm »
Ignore



Trump wins with 345

90%=Solid
50%=Likely
30%=Lean
« Last Edit: March 26, 2017, 04:49:09 pm by Ridge »Logged
cvparty
Full Member
***
Posts: 124
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2017, 05:37:24 pm »
Ignore

...and this is how things go if the President's approval rating is around 30%.






lol no
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10169
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2017, 06:06:07 pm »
Ignore

This is probably a ~30% incumbent R President approval ratings map with no tossups, with the three different shadings meaning lean/likely/safe.

Logged

twenty42
Full Member
***
Posts: 139
United States


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2017, 06:56:33 pm »
Ignore

Ironically, Trump will win the popular vote but lose electoral votes compared to 2016. Michigan goes Dem again, and 2016 MI will be compared to 2000 NH. MN and ME-AL will flip a la 2004 NM and IA. Warren will target AZ much more than Hillary did, and she will win it by the narrowest of margins. VA will confirm its status as a Likely D state, and WI and PA will transition to lean R. The Trump campaign will target NH hard and win it by 332 votes, and MT Treasurer will deactivate his account on Wednesday morning.

Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15632
United States


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2017, 07:06:31 pm »
Ignore

...and this is how things go if the President's approval rating is around 30%.


lol no

Note: that is an approval of 30%. He would get about 36% of the popular vote, which is as low as for any nominee for any Presidential nominee, incumbent or challenger, in a binary election.

This map
(1) may be unduly charitable for President Trump in electoral results with 20% approval, and
(2) sets a condition (30% approval) that I see  unlikely to happen. I see 35% as a reasonable floor unless he does somethin unimaginable (and for now unmentionable).



Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
twenty42
Full Member
***
Posts: 139
United States


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2017, 07:26:44 pm »
Ignore

...and this is how things go if the President's approval rating is around 30%.


lol no

Note: that is an approval of 30%. He would get about 36% of the popular vote, which is as low as for any nominee for any Presidential nominee, incumbent or challenger, in a binary election.

This map
(1) may be unduly charitable for President Trump in electoral results with 20% approval, and
(2) sets a condition (30% approval) that I see  unlikely to happen. I see 35% as a reasonable floor unless he does somethin unimaginable (and for now unmentionable).






Nope.

This is Trump's absolute floor, regardless of approval ratings or any event...



Those states are going to vote for the candidate with the R next to their name. This map may change by 2040, but not 2020.
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10169
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2017, 09:16:07 pm »
Ignore

Not NE-02.
Logged

Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4134
United States


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: March 29, 2017, 08:44:34 am »
Ignore

Colors from pure toss-up to lean/likely and safe D/R.

Logged

United Arab Emirates Immigrant, naturalized US citizen, living in the wonderful state of California, progressive and devoted Democrat. Any questions?

Endorsements:
- President: Kamala Harris
- CA Governor: Gavin Newsom

- NJ Governor: Phil Murphy
- VA Governor: Ralph Northam
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines