Revisiting "The Mythology of Trump's Working Class Support"

[hopper]

The difference was non-college whites(+42% in popular vote margin vs HRC) as opposed to College Educated Whites(+2% popular vote margin vs HRC) it wasn't really income based.

[hopper]

The difference was non-college whites(+42% in popular vote margin vs HRC) as opposed to College Educated Whites(+2% popular vote margin vs HRC) it wasn't really income based.

This is the key. Education was a much better indicator of Trump's level of support than income.

What is completely neglected here in this discussion is the correlation between age & educational levels.

Older Americans (65+ in particular) are much more likely to be White and significantly lower levels of educational attainment than the general population.

Nothing wrong with that at all.... for my parent's generation (Baby Boomers) going to college/university was a luxury. and for both my parents they were the first in their families to have a four year degree.

Back in those days, many Americans believed in the American Dream, where you could secure your future and your family's future getting a decent paying union job working the line, or even in a grocery store, at a time where a thing called "pattern bargaining" still existed, before it was gutted under Ronald Reagan and the shift to Plant-by-Plant Union contracts.

If you were Male, you had a significant chance of getting shipped over to 'Nam, if your lottery number came up, regardless of educational attainment or background, like some of my older friends and almost happened to my Father, except he was rejected from service because of medical conditions.

It is only relatively recently where a four year degree has become a virtual necessity to "succeed" in this fantasy called the American Dream, and without a two year vocational degree one is lucky to be able to land a decent paying first job outside of a gas station or retail store.

Although I agree with the premise that income "Trumped education", it's really easy to sit here from a mile high view and gaze down without looking at the yuuge generational gap in the '16 Presidential Election, that in many ways had a stronger correlation than education/income gaps among White voters .

I do not and will not subscribe to the theory that some of the Liberals and Conservatives toss out on this Forum nor elsewhere, that somehow WWC voters are " racists, lazy, stupid, ignorant, voting against their own economic interests", and all of the other crap that pops up on a regular basis like some type of virulent STD or bedbugs.

Sure, Non-College Whites swung heavily towards Trump in '16 no debate and no question on that fact.

Many of the Non-College Whites (Less than 4 yr degree?) are those 55+, and that number increases dramatically each year you add on....

Trump performed extremely well, precisely because he was able to max out the White vote, particularly among Seniors, and also Gen X-ers, many of whom voted for Gore/Kerry/Obama between 2000 and 2012.

Not rocket science here... sure there were many parts of the country where WWC Voters in ancestral Democratic areas went 3rd Party, but where the votes actually mattered in Blue Collar PA cities, Youngstown Ohio, Macomb County Michigan, factory towns in Eastern Iowa, Racine and Kenosha Wisconsin, it's pretty clear that there were a ton of Obama '08/'12 voters that went Trump in '16.

No the cutoff is age 45+ not age 65+ as far as Whites go. Here is the age white demographic breakdown whites from Larry Sabato's Website off of a recent article how "How Midterms are different from Presidential Elections." I'm not sure if the demographic breakdown from the article is VAP or just from the census though. The average White% of the electorate was 70% from the 2016 exit polls I know that.

Ages 18-29: 56% White
Ages 30-44: 58% White
Ages 45-64: 70% White
Ages 65%: 79%