Florida 2018 Gubernatorial

[Married Gay Socialist]

So, as we all know, the Florida gubernatorial is coming up in 2018, and thank goodness Rick Scott is term-limited and will not be able to run again.

So, the candidates listed in this poll have all expressed at least some interest, and none have ruled out a run for the governorship. It looks like the governor will most likely be someone on this list.

Honestly, I have to say we don't have many good options thus far, but that seems to be a constant issue for Florida. So out of the options we see here, who would you vote for?

I'd say it's time for Florida to do some cleaning house after Scott is finally gone, so who would complete this task in the best way possible?

Thanks!

[windjammer]

Gwen Graham obviously

[Young Conservative]

Adam Putnam, of course.

[Donerail]

I'll be voting for Gillum. Morgan's an anti-vaxxer and Graham is another instance of the FDP trying to squeeze votes out of north FL that just don't exist.

[smoltchanov]

Graham. Baker would also suit me, but he will not run (IMHO). Surely - not Gillum, Huckabee or Putnam.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Putnam is the best candidate. Huckabee won't run I suspect (I haven't heard anything, but I missed a lot last year), and Morgan is the only decent Democrat in the race.

[President Johnson]

Not much into it, but John Morgan seems to be a good choice.

[MT Treasurer]

Putnam. Morgan is the Democrat that really scares me, not Graham.

[Married Gay Socialist]

Putnam. Morgan is the Democrat that really scares me, not Graham.

Graham is a Democrat In Name Only.
Dems wont be able to retake any majorities if they keep putting out crap centrist Dems like Graham. She wont win. That's not what the people, especially new/young Dems want.

I guess I'd vote for either Gillum or Morgan eve though progressives have no options in yet another election.

[smoltchanov]

Graham is a Democrat In Name Only.
Dems wont be able to retake any majorities if they keep putting out crap centrist Dems like Graham. She wont win. That's not what the people, especially new/young Dems want.

Graham is a centrist Democrat, not real DINO (in fact - there are no single DINO even in whole Florida legislature anymore since about year 2000). She is much to the left of any possible republican candidate like Putnam. And "what new/young Dems want" is NOT what most of Florida citizens want - the state as a whole is much less liberal then that political group.

[henster]

Doesn't Morgan have multiple DUIs?

[Donerail]

Doesn't Morgan have multiple DUIs?

Yeah, but it's not really something that can be weaponized against him—they're a while ago, and led to a feel-good story of rehab and getting his life back on track. It's far enough back, and he recovered well enough, that I doubt it'll be a major drag on him.

[Suburbia]

Graham is a Democrat In Name Only.
Dems wont be able to retake any majorities if they keep putting out crap centrist Dems like Graham. She wont win. That's not what the people, especially new/young Dems want.

Graham is a centrist Democrat, not real DINO (in fact - there are no single DINO even in whole Florida legislature anymore since about year 2000). She is much to the left of any possible republican candidate like Putnam. And "what new/young Dems want" is NOT what most of Florida citizens want - the state as a whole is much less liberal then that political group.

Most Floridians don't want to hear about young people's concerns. It is a middle aged state, not a millennial utopia.

[Donerail]

Graham is a Democrat In Name Only.
Dems wont be able to retake any majorities if they keep putting out crap centrist Dems like Graham. She wont win. That's not what the people, especially new/young Dems want.

Graham is a centrist Democrat, not real DINO (in fact - there are no single DINO even in whole Florida legislature anymore since about year 2000). She is much to the left of any possible republican candidate like Putnam. And "what new/young Dems want" is NOT what most of Florida citizens want - the state as a whole is much less liberal then that political group.

Yeah. I don't understand the whole "crap Democrat that socialist Democrats want" meme. It's not like she's as antithetical to their interests as the other candidates are, and besides Morgan (who I feel would implide), she's the best shot at winning a gubernatorial race for once. And she's young enough that she could be a Senator come 2024 or 2022 if little Marco's sweating profusely.

I'd vote for Graham if she became the nominee but there is little to suggest that the bolded portion of this post is true, and that's a major part of why I'm not supporting her in the primary.

[wjx987]

I'll be voting for Gillum. Morgan's an anti-vaxxer and Graham is another instance of the FDP trying to squeeze votes out of north FL that just don't exist.

Did not know Morgan was an anti-vaxxer. Highly disappointed.

[smoltchanov]

I'll be voting for Gillum. Morgan's an anti-vaxxer and Graham is another instance of the FDP trying to squeeze votes out of north FL that just don't exist.

Ask state Senator Montford or (still existing) a lot of locally elected local Democrats (visit Liberty county and talk with Democratic officeholders there if you can)))) about these votes. But i suppose that it's because of "bold progressism" of people like you there are less such people in north FL then 20-25 years ago. North Florida was the most Democratic part of the state for many years, but it never was "ultraprogressive". And mst of Florida people are not "ultraprogressive" now too.

[Heisenberg]

I'll be voting for Gillum. Morgan's an anti-vaxxer and Graham is another instance of the FDP trying to squeeze votes out of north FL that just don't exist.

Ask state Senator Montford or (still existing) a lot of locally elected local Democrats (visit Liberty county and talk with Democratic officeholders there if you can)))) about these votes. But i suppose that it's because of "bold progressism" of people like you there are less such people in north FL then 20-25 years ago. North Florida was the most Democratic part of the state for many years, but it never was "ultraprogressive". And mst of Florida people are not "ultraprogressive" now too.

Aren't there lots of Blacks in Montford's district? Trump still lost it by about 3 or 4 points IIRC, and I think Trump may have maxed out in Demosaur-defecting votes.

[Donerail]

I'll be voting for Gillum. Morgan's an anti-vaxxer and Graham is another instance of the FDP trying to squeeze votes out of north FL that just don't exist.

Ask state Senator Montford or (still existing) a lot of locally elected local Democrats (visit Liberty county and talk with Democratic officeholders there if you can)))) about these votes. But i suppose that it's because of "bold progressism" of people like you there are less such people in north FL then 20-25 years ago. North Florida was the most Democratic part of the state for many years, but it never was "ultraprogressive". And mst of Florida people are not "ultraprogressive" now too.

Montford is elected and re-elected on the strength of "bold progressives" (specifically, university students and government employees) in Leon and African-American voters in the rural counties, not any appeal to blue dogs. As for Liberty County, folks there are perfectly willing to vote for local Democrats, but under no circumstances will they vote for a Democrat at any level above that. Buddy MacKay, Bill McBride, Jim Davis, and Alex Sink all tried to win those voters, and none of them became governor.

Blaming their failures on "bold progressivism" is odd—I know it's your schtick, but Florida Democrats simply haven't nominated anyone you could remotely consider "ultraprogressive." Our last Senate candidate was a Romney donor who switched his registration in 2012, while our most recent gubernatorial nominee was literally the former Republican governor. Florida Democrats have nominated "moderates" in virtually every election for the past two decades, and the FDP has won one statewide election in the last twenty years (and that candidate won in a heavily Democratic year and later blew a winnable gubernatorial race and a winnable Congressional election, so that was useless). There is no empirical evidence to back up the idea that the FDP can do better by running more moderate candidates, and as for running more liberal ones, well, I can't imagine they'll have a less successful track record.

Because she's the kind of candidate that can actually replicate Bill Nelson's usual strong showing in North Florida, and really anything north of I-4. Morgan might, but he seems too boldly progressive to have the same success with these voters, even if he's as crass as Trump. And she's well known in the Miami area given that's where her dad made a name for himself as a local entity.

Bill Nelson has been blessed with the opportunity of facing two of the weakest candidates the RPOF has ever nominated. Katherine Harris ran an utter mess of a campaign, while yeah, some folks in north Florida aren't gonna be particularly enthusiastic about voting for Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV. Adam Putnam is neither of those people, and there's no reason to believe he'll perform as poorly among those voters as those Senate candidates did. As for her name recognition in Miami, her dad hasn't been on the ballot in this century.

Only really in Leon, Jefferson and obviously Gadsden, but all the rest are pretty white. And Montford kinda shows that Democrats of Bill Nelson's and Gwen Graham's type can run extremely well up there. He outperformed Clinton by 30 net points, and won all but like two counties in the district. Many of the counties he won voted like 75%+ for Trump!

Wrong. Madison is 40% black, Hamilton 35%, Jackson 30%, Taylor and Liberty around 20%. The district itself is 31% black. As for his performance, Montford demonstrated how well Democrats can do when an incumbent drops a quarter-million on a some dude who raised $12k. If the FDP figures out a way to outraise the RPOF 33:1, I bet they'd do a lot better in North Florida too.

But then again, I guess that nominating Graham would be a waste of time on votes like those/snark. While I agree that they should focus more on maxing out/gaining new voters in places like Duval, Miami-Dade, Seminole, Orange, Hillsborough and Osceola, winning more of those Demosaurs in North Florida makes winning the state overall a helluva lot easier. Just look at Nelson's 2012 map.

No, it really doesn't. A 20% swing in north Florida is cancelled out by a 2% swing in the Miami metro. The FDP needs to invest its time in improving its performance in places like Volusia, St. Lucie, Pasco, Pinellas, Marion, Sarasota, and Brevard, not waste money and time going after voters that aren't coming back.

[JA]

Assuming I still live here in Florida at the time (I hope not), I'd cast my vote in the Democratic Primary for John Morgan and hopefully for him in the Gubernatorial election as well. He'd be a strong, populist, working class Democrat with broad appeal, which is exactly what we need.

[smoltchanov]

I'll be voting for Gillum. Morgan's an anti-vaxxer and Graham is another instance of the FDP trying to squeeze votes out of north FL that just don't exist.

Ask state Senator Montford or (still existing) a lot of locally elected local Democrats (visit Liberty county and talk with Democratic officeholders there if you can)))) about these votes. But i suppose that it's because of "bold progressism" of people like you there are less such people in north FL then 20-25 years ago. North Florida was the most Democratic part of the state for many years, but it never was "ultraprogressive". And mst of Florida people are not "ultraprogressive" now too.

Aren't there lots of Blacks in Montford's district? Trump still lost it by about 3 or 4 points IIRC, and I think Trump may have maxed out in Demosaur-defecting votes.

Only really in Leon, Jefferson and obviously Gadsden, but all the rest are pretty white. And Montford kinda shows that Democrats of Bill Nelson's and Gwen Graham's type can run extremely well up there. He outperformed Clinton by 30 net points, and won all but like two counties in the district. Many of the counties he won voted like 75%+ for Trump!

But then again, I guess that nominating Graham would be a waste of time on votes like those/snark. While I agree that they should focus more on maxing out/gaining new voters in places like Duval, Miami-Dade, Seminole, Orange, Hillsborough and Osceola, winning more of those Demosaurs in North Florida makes winning the state overall a helluva lot easier. Just look at Nelson's 2012 map.

+100. Usually you can't win Florida statewide on "pure progressive" platform (even Obabma in his best times did it narrowly). You need most of centrists and at least some "somewhat conservative leaning" votes too. May be because of that the last Democratic governor of Florida is still Lawton Chiles ("old he-coon"))))), who wasn't a conservative, but, surely, was very moderate. And may be that's part of the reason why, besides Nelson (who is also more of moderate type), Democrats hold no statewide offices in the state...

[smoltchanov]

I'll be voting for Gillum. Morgan's an anti-vaxxer and Graham is another instance of the FDP trying to squeeze votes out of north FL that just don't exist.

Ask state Senator Montford or (still existing) a lot of locally elected local Democrats (visit Liberty county and talk with Democratic officeholders there if you can)))) about these votes. But i suppose that it's because of "bold progressism" of people like you there are less such people in north FL then 20-25 years ago. North Florida was the most Democratic part of the state for many years, but it never was "ultraprogressive". And mst of Florida people are not "ultraprogressive" now too.

Montford is elected and re-elected on the strength of "bold progressives" (specifically, university students and government employees) in Leon and African-American voters in the rural counties, not any appeal to blue dogs. As for Liberty County, folks there are perfectly willing to vote for local Democrats, but under no circumstances will they vote for a Democrat at any level above that. Buddy MacKay, Bill McBride, Jim Davis, and Alex Sink all tried to win those voters, and none of them became governor.

Blaming their failures on "bold progressivism" is odd—I know it's your schtick, but Florida Democrats simply haven't nominated anyone you could remotely consider "ultraprogressive." Our last Senate candidate was a Romney donor who switched his registration in 2012, while our most recent gubernatorial nominee was literally the former Republican governor. Florida Democrats have nominated "moderates" in virtually every election for the past two decades, and the FDP has won one statewide election in the last twenty years (and that candidate won in a heavily Democratic year and later blew a winnable gubernatorial race and a winnable Congressional election, so that was useless). There is no empirical evidence to back up the idea that the FDP can do better by running more moderate candidates, and as for running more liberal ones, well, I can't imagine they'll have a less successful track record.

Because she's the kind of candidate that can actually replicate Bill Nelson's usual strong showing in North Florida, and really anything north of I-4. Morgan might, but he seems too boldly progressive to have the same success with these voters, even if he's as crass as Trump. And she's well known in the Miami area given that's where her dad made a name for himself as a local entity.

Bill Nelson has been blessed with the opportunity of facing two of the weakest candidates the RPOF has ever nominated. Katherine Harris ran an utter mess of a campaign, while yeah, some folks in north Florida aren't gonna be particularly enthusiastic about voting for Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV. Adam Putnam is neither of those people, and there's no reason to believe he'll perform as poorly among those voters as those Senate candidates did. As for her name recognition in Miami, her dad hasn't been on the ballot in this century.

Interesting. I heard a lot of people calling Montford himself a Blue Dog, and while he is slightly more liberal then a typical Blue Dog i imagine, he is still THE most moderate Democratic member of state Legislature i am aware of. And he won not ONLY Black and student vote in Leon and Gadsden, but a LOT of substantially more conservative white vote (for example - in the above mentioned Liberty (68% last time), Calhoun (almost 64%) and even Wakula (52%) and  Franklin (51%))

[Donerail]

Interesting. I heard a lot of people calling Montford himself a Blue Dog, and while he is slightly more liberal then a typical Blue Dog i imagine, he is still THE most moderate Democratic member of state Legislature i am aware of. And he won not ONLY Black and student vote in Leon and Gadsden, but a LOT of substantially more conservative white vote (for example - in the above mentioned Liberty (68% last time), Calhoun (almost 64%) and even Wakula (52%) and  Franklin (51%))

Montford himself is, yes, though the most conservative Democrat in the State Senate is probably Darryl Rouson. His performance was not a result of any particular appeal, just that he actually ran a functioning campaign and his Republican opponent did not contest the election.

[smoltchanov]

Interesting. I heard a lot of people calling Montford himself a Blue Dog, and while he is slightly more liberal then a typical Blue Dog i imagine, he is still THE most moderate Democratic member of state Legislature i am aware of. And he won not ONLY Black and student vote in Leon and Gadsden, but a LOT of substantially more conservative white vote (for example - in the above mentioned Liberty (68% last time), Calhoun (almost 64%) and even Wakula (52%) and  Franklin (51%))

Montford himself is, yes, though the most conservative Democrat in the State Senate is probably Darryl Rouson. His performance was not a result of any particular appeal, just that he actually ran a functioning campaign and his Republican opponent did not contest the election.

Thanks for info! I am almost purely Internet-based now, and, obviously, we don't have ideological ratings for this year yet...

P.S. (long) I am absolutely NOT against "bold progressives", but - where they belong. Approximately - districts about D+7 or better. Bay Area in California? Of course! LA area? Sure! Boston, New York, Chicago and so on? Yes! Research Triangle in North Carolina or Southern Florida? You bet! And so on...  Just as i am not against conservatives in"mirror" districts. But Florida as a state is about R+1-2 now, and it's in a districts (and states) like this where i greatly prefer very moderate candidates. Both Democratic and Republican. And it's only natural for me that "district rules!". Speaking about Florida - a lot of districts in South Florida may elect progressives. Some districts in Central part of the state (Orlando, Tampa, St. Petersburg) - too. But in North Florida such candidates are "natural" only in majority-Black (and, possibly, not everywhere even in such districts) and university districts. So - some districts in Leon, some - in JAX, few - in areas like Gadsden county, and that's all. If Democrats want to be even remotely competitive in other districts - they need to run moderates and even conservatives (who in almost all cases will still look moderate compared with Republican candidates). Tht's so simple.

And let's return to Liberty county for a minute. 75% Democratic registration. Montford (centrist) gets 68% there. Hillary? Less then 20%. So, centrist Montford was still acceptable to most of county Democrats (though most of them are, probably, more conservative then he is), and they were willing to cast their vote for him. While Hillary was something resembling "absolute no-no bold progressive" from their point of view.

Of course i know, that most of North Florida rural counties are not that big. But sometimes they supply exactly votes which make difference between defeat and victory. We all remember 2000 (Bush - Gore) and even last year all (and some more) Trump margin came from 2-3 counties in Panhandle. Subtract them (or get better percentage in them) and result would be different..

[Confused Democrat]

Used to be on the Graham train, but Morgan managed to convert me. 

His stance on vaccines is dreadful, but it's definitely not a deal breaker for me. Also Gillum just rubs me the wrong way.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Interesting. I heard a lot of people calling Montford himself a Blue Dog, and while he is slightly more liberal then a typical Blue Dog i imagine, he is still THE most moderate Democratic member of state Legislature i am aware of. And he won not ONLY Black and student vote in Leon and Gadsden, but a LOT of substantially more conservative white vote (for example - in the above mentioned Liberty (68% last time), Calhoun (almost 64%) and even Wakula (52%) and  Franklin (51%))

Montford himself is, yes, though the most conservative Democrat in the State Senate is probably Darryl Rouson. His performance was not a result of any particular appeal, just that he actually ran a functioning campaign and his Republican opponent did not contest the election.

Thanks for info! I am almost purely Internet-based now, and, obviously, we don't have ideological ratings for this year yet...

P.S. (long) I am absolutely NOT against "bold progressives", but - where they belong. Approximately - districts about D+7 or better. Bay Area in California? Of course! LA area? Sure! Boston, New York, Chicago and so on? Yes! Research Triangle in North Carolina or Southern Florida? You bet! And so on...  Just as i am not against conservatives in"mirror" districts. But Florida as a state is about R+1-2 now, and it's in a districts (and states) like this where i greatly prefer very moderate candidates. Both Democratic and Republican. And it's only natural for me that "district rules!". Speaking about Florida - a lot of districts in South Florida may elect progressives. Some districts in Central part of the state (Orlando, Tampa, St. Petersburg) - too. But in North Florida such candidates are "natural" only in majority-Black (and, possibly, not everywhere even in such districts) and university districts. So - some districts in Leon, some - in JAX, few - in areas like Gadsden county, and that's all. If Democrats want to be even remotely competitive in other districts - they need to run moderates and even conservatives (who in almost all cases will still look moderate compared with Republican candidates). Tht's so simple.

And let's return to Liberty county for a minute. 75% Democratic registration. Montford (centrist) gets 68% there. Hillary? Less then 20%. So, centrist Montford was still acceptable to most of county Democrats (though most of them are, probably, more conservative then he is), and they were willing to cast their vote for him. While Hillary was something resembling "absolute no-no bold progressive" from their point of view.

Of course i know, that most of North Florida rural counties are not that big. But sometimes they supply exactly votes which make difference between defeat and victory. We all remember 2000 (Bush - Gore) and even last year all (and some more) Trump margin came from 2-3 counties in Panhandle. Subtract them (or get better percentage in them) and result would be different..

Progressives "belong" wherever voters see fit to elect them.