Florida 2018 Gubernatorial

[Donerail]

On the impacts of Graham's name, since it just occurred to me: the past three "legacy candidates" were LeRoy Collins Jr., Bud Chiles, and Connie Mack IV, and none of them won their races (or really even came close). Only Mack has the political experience Graham does, but it's something worth noticing.

To be fair, not only was Mack the only one with the sort of experience Graham had, but even Mack was a pretty awful candidate.  Say what you will about Gwen Graham (and she's not some sort of perfect candidate or anything like that), but I think she's far stronger than Connie Mack and unlike him, she's actually won a very competitive race in a huge wave year for the other party.  Admittedly, Steve Southerland was a weak incumbent with a tendency to say really stupid things about women IIRC and Graham has only won one house race, but even so, I do think she's at least somewhat battle-tested in a way that Mack never was by virtue of his district.

Yeah definitely, not meant to be a brilliant piece of political insight. Just something I realized while bored on the CTA this morning.

I agree with your analysis of Graham's weaknesses, but I think you're overestimating Morgan—I think his implosion is almost a certainty, and though Putnam would probably be favored against Graham, the odds of Morgan imploding are so great that she would still be more likely to win.

[Confused Democrat]

On the impacts of Graham's name, since it just occurred to me: the past three "legacy candidates" were LeRoy Collins Jr., Bud Chiles, and Connie Mack IV, and none of them won their races (or really even came close). Only Mack has the political experience Graham does, but it's something worth noticing.

To be fair, not only was Mack the only one with the sort of experience Graham had, but even Mack was a pretty awful candidate.  Say what you will about Gwen Graham (and she's not some sort of perfect candidate or anything like that), but I think she's far stronger than Connie Mack and unlike him, she's actually won a very competitive race in a huge wave year for the other party.  Admittedly, Steve Southerland was a weak incumbent with a tendency to say really stupid things about women IIRC and Graham has only won one house race, but even so, I do think she's at least somewhat battle-tested in a way that Mack never was by virtue of his district.

Yeah definitely, not meant to be a brilliant piece of political insight. Just something I realized while bored on the CTA this morning.

I agree with your analysis of Graham's weaknesses, but I think you're overestimating Morgan—I think his implosion is almost a certainty, and though Putnam would probably be favored against Graham, the odds of Morgan imploding are so great that she would still be more likely to win.

Why is Morgan's implosion a certainty in your opinion? I don't see it.

[Donerail]

I agree with your analysis of Graham's weaknesses, but I think you're overestimating Morgan—I think his implosion is almost a certainty, and though Putnam would probably be favored against Graham, the odds of Morgan imploding are so great that she would still be more likely to win.

Why is Morgan's implosion a certainty in your opinion? I don't see it.

Hearsay from friends who've been interviewed for staff positions.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I agree with your analysis of Graham's weaknesses, but I think you're overestimating Morgan—I think his implosion is almost a certainty, and though Putnam would probably be favored against Graham, the odds of Morgan imploding are so great that she would still be more likely to win.

Why is Morgan's implosion a certainty in your opinion? I don't see it.

Hearsay from friends who've been interviewed for staff positions.

Interesting. I've been out of the loop, I wasn't entirely convinced he'd run at all. That's good news (even if he implodes).

So what exactly makes you think that, without spilling any beans? Is he erratic or something like Jeff Greene?

[Donerail]

I agree with your analysis of Graham's weaknesses, but I think you're overestimating Morgan—I think his implosion is almost a certainty, and though Putnam would probably be favored against Graham, the odds of Morgan imploding are so great that she would still be more likely to win.

Why is Morgan's implosion a certainty in your opinion? I don't see it.

Hearsay from friends who've been interviewed for staff positions.

Interesting. I've been out of the loop, I wasn't entirely convinced he'd run at all. That's good news (even if he implodes).

So what exactly makes you think that, without spilling any beans? Is he erratic or something like Jeff Greene?

Kinda erratic in the sense that Trump was erratic - just occasionally saying stuff that gives you the gut feeling that, were he to win, he may not be all that great at doing the job. The anti-vax comments to Politico are probably the best recent example of it from Morgan.

On a related note, the guy I know wasn't interested in the job after meeting Morgan, but mentioned that Morgan will probably be able to assemble the best team possible. Got flown in for the interview on a private jet and everything.

[Confused Democrat]

I agree with your analysis of Graham's weaknesses, but I think you're overestimating Morgan—I think his implosion is almost a certainty, and though Putnam would probably be favored against Graham, the odds of Morgan imploding are so great that she would still be more likely to win.

Why is Morgan's implosion a certainty in your opinion? I don't see it.

Hearsay from friends who've been interviewed for staff positions.

Interesting. I've been out of the loop, I wasn't entirely convinced he'd run at all. That's good news (even if he implodes).

So what exactly makes you think that, without spilling any beans? Is he erratic or something like Jeff Greene?

Kinda erratic in the sense that Trump was erratic - just occasionally saying stuff that gives you the gut feeling that, were he to win, he may not be all that great at doing the job. The anti-vax comments to Politico are probably the best recent example of it from Morgan.

On a related note, the guy I know wasn't interested in the job after meeting Morgan, but mentioned that Morgan will probably be able to assemble the best team possible. Got flown in for the interview on a private jet and everything.

I definitely get some Trump vibes from Morgan, but I don' think he's as incompetent or intellectually uncurious as Trump.

[The Arizonan]

What are the chances that Florida goes from being a lean Republican state to another Colorado or Pennsylvania in the near future?

[Goldeneye]

Putnam.

[The Arizonan]

What are the chances that Florida goes from being a lean Republican state to another Colorado or Pennsylvania in the near future?

I don't know if I understand your question. Do you mean "another Colorado or Virginia", as in Florida becomes a shade of light blue? Because Pennsylvania makes no sense in that category since it is basically a pure swing state.

If that is your question, I don't think anyone can answer when or if Florida becomes a light blue state. There is a huge age gap which would intuitively suggest that over the next decade or two, it would drift that way, but you also have to consider the huge transplant number of retirees from other states who tend to lean Republican (I disagree with the notion that R's will be winning them with 80%+ though, as some here have suggested).

What I mean is when does Florida become comfortably Democratic like Maine or Oregon?

[Heisenberg]

What are the chances that Florida goes from being a lean Republican state to another Colorado or Pennsylvania in the near future?

I don't know if I understand your question. Do you mean "another Colorado or Virginia", as in Florida becomes a shade of light blue? Because Pennsylvania makes no sense in that category since it is basically a pure swing state.

If that is your question, I don't think anyone can answer when or if Florida becomes a light blue state. There is a huge age gap which would intuitively suggest that over the next decade or two, it would drift that way, but you also have to consider the huge transplant number of retirees from other states who tend to lean Republican (I disagree with the notion that R's will be winning them with 80%+ though, as some here have suggested).

What I mean is when does Florida become comfortably Democratic like Maine or Oregon?

Maine isn't comfortably Democratic anymore.

[TheSaint250]

What are the chances that Florida goes from being a lean Republican state to another Colorado or Pennsylvania in the near future?

I don't know if I understand your question. Do you mean "another Colorado or Virginia", as in Florida becomes a shade of light blue? Because Pennsylvania makes no sense in that category since it is basically a pure swing state.

If that is your question, I don't think anyone can answer when or if Florida becomes a light blue state. There is a huge age gap which would intuitively suggest that over the next decade or two, it would drift that way, but you also have to consider the huge transplant number of retirees from other states who tend to lean Republican (I disagree with the notion that R's will be winning them with 80%+ though, as some here have suggested).

What I mean is when does Florida become comfortably Democratic like Maine or Oregon?

If it ever does, it won't be any time soon.  it's still too much of a swing state.  When Arizona and Georgia trended more Democrat, Florida trended more Republican.  Arizona is more likely to be leaning Democrat than Florida.