Florida 2018 Gubernatorial

[smoltchanov]

Graham. Baker would also suit me, but he will not run (IMHO). Surely - not Gillum, Huckabee or Putnam.

[smoltchanov]

Graham is a Democrat In Name Only.
Dems wont be able to retake any majorities if they keep putting out crap centrist Dems like Graham. She wont win. That's not what the people, especially new/young Dems want.

Graham is a centrist Democrat, not real DINO (in fact - there are no single DINO even in whole Florida legislature anymore since about year 2000). She is much to the left of any possible republican candidate like Putnam. And "what new/young Dems want" is NOT what most of Florida citizens want - the state as a whole is much less liberal then that political group.

[smoltchanov]

I'll be voting for Gillum. Morgan's an anti-vaxxer and Graham is another instance of the FDP trying to squeeze votes out of north FL that just don't exist.

Ask state Senator Montford or (still existing) a lot of locally elected local Democrats (visit Liberty county and talk with Democratic officeholders there if you can)))) about these votes. But i suppose that it's because of "bold progressism" of people like you there are less such people in north FL then 20-25 years ago. North Florida was the most Democratic part of the state for many years, but it never was "ultraprogressive". And mst of Florida people are not "ultraprogressive" now too.

[smoltchanov]

I'll be voting for Gillum. Morgan's an anti-vaxxer and Graham is another instance of the FDP trying to squeeze votes out of north FL that just don't exist.

Ask state Senator Montford or (still existing) a lot of locally elected local Democrats (visit Liberty county and talk with Democratic officeholders there if you can)))) about these votes. But i suppose that it's because of "bold progressism" of people like you there are less such people in north FL then 20-25 years ago. North Florida was the most Democratic part of the state for many years, but it never was "ultraprogressive". And mst of Florida people are not "ultraprogressive" now too.

Aren't there lots of Blacks in Montford's district? Trump still lost it by about 3 or 4 points IIRC, and I think Trump may have maxed out in Demosaur-defecting votes.

Only really in Leon, Jefferson and obviously Gadsden, but all the rest are pretty white. And Montford kinda shows that Democrats of Bill Nelson's and Gwen Graham's type can run extremely well up there. He outperformed Clinton by 30 net points, and won all but like two counties in the district. Many of the counties he won voted like 75%+ for Trump!

But then again, I guess that nominating Graham would be a waste of time on votes like those/snark. While I agree that they should focus more on maxing out/gaining new voters in places like Duval, Miami-Dade, Seminole, Orange, Hillsborough and Osceola, winning more of those Demosaurs in North Florida makes winning the state overall a helluva lot easier. Just look at Nelson's 2012 map.

+100. Usually you can't win Florida statewide on "pure progressive" platform (even Obabma in his best times did it narrowly). You need most of centrists and at least some "somewhat conservative leaning" votes too. May be because of that the last Democratic governor of Florida is still Lawton Chiles ("old he-coon"))))), who wasn't a conservative, but, surely, was very moderate. And may be that's part of the reason why, besides Nelson (who is also more of moderate type), Democrats hold no statewide offices in the state...

[smoltchanov]

I'll be voting for Gillum. Morgan's an anti-vaxxer and Graham is another instance of the FDP trying to squeeze votes out of north FL that just don't exist.

Ask state Senator Montford or (still existing) a lot of locally elected local Democrats (visit Liberty county and talk with Democratic officeholders there if you can)))) about these votes. But i suppose that it's because of "bold progressism" of people like you there are less such people in north FL then 20-25 years ago. North Florida was the most Democratic part of the state for many years, but it never was "ultraprogressive". And mst of Florida people are not "ultraprogressive" now too.

Montford is elected and re-elected on the strength of "bold progressives" (specifically, university students and government employees) in Leon and African-American voters in the rural counties, not any appeal to blue dogs. As for Liberty County, folks there are perfectly willing to vote for local Democrats, but under no circumstances will they vote for a Democrat at any level above that. Buddy MacKay, Bill McBride, Jim Davis, and Alex Sink all tried to win those voters, and none of them became governor.

Blaming their failures on "bold progressivism" is odd—I know it's your schtick, but Florida Democrats simply haven't nominated anyone you could remotely consider "ultraprogressive." Our last Senate candidate was a Romney donor who switched his registration in 2012, while our most recent gubernatorial nominee was literally the former Republican governor. Florida Democrats have nominated "moderates" in virtually every election for the past two decades, and the FDP has won one statewide election in the last twenty years (and that candidate won in a heavily Democratic year and later blew a winnable gubernatorial race and a winnable Congressional election, so that was useless). There is no empirical evidence to back up the idea that the FDP can do better by running more moderate candidates, and as for running more liberal ones, well, I can't imagine they'll have a less successful track record.

Because she's the kind of candidate that can actually replicate Bill Nelson's usual strong showing in North Florida, and really anything north of I-4. Morgan might, but he seems too boldly progressive to have the same success with these voters, even if he's as crass as Trump. And she's well known in the Miami area given that's where her dad made a name for himself as a local entity.

Bill Nelson has been blessed with the opportunity of facing two of the weakest candidates the RPOF has ever nominated. Katherine Harris ran an utter mess of a campaign, while yeah, some folks in north Florida aren't gonna be particularly enthusiastic about voting for Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV. Adam Putnam is neither of those people, and there's no reason to believe he'll perform as poorly among those voters as those Senate candidates did. As for her name recognition in Miami, her dad hasn't been on the ballot in this century.

Interesting. I heard a lot of people calling Montford himself a Blue Dog, and while he is slightly more liberal then a typical Blue Dog i imagine, he is still THE most moderate Democratic member of state Legislature i am aware of. And he won not ONLY Black and student vote in Leon and Gadsden, but a LOT of substantially more conservative white vote (for example - in the above mentioned Liberty (68% last time), Calhoun (almost 64%) and even Wakula (52%) and  Franklin (51%))

[smoltchanov]

Interesting. I heard a lot of people calling Montford himself a Blue Dog, and while he is slightly more liberal then a typical Blue Dog i imagine, he is still THE most moderate Democratic member of state Legislature i am aware of. And he won not ONLY Black and student vote in Leon and Gadsden, but a LOT of substantially more conservative white vote (for example - in the above mentioned Liberty (68% last time), Calhoun (almost 64%) and even Wakula (52%) and  Franklin (51%))

Montford himself is, yes, though the most conservative Democrat in the State Senate is probably Darryl Rouson. His performance was not a result of any particular appeal, just that he actually ran a functioning campaign and his Republican opponent did not contest the election.

Thanks for info! I am almost purely Internet-based now, and, obviously, we don't have ideological ratings for this year yet...

P.S. (long) I am absolutely NOT against "bold progressives", but - where they belong. Approximately - districts about D+7 or better. Bay Area in California? Of course! LA area? Sure! Boston, New York, Chicago and so on? Yes! Research Triangle in North Carolina or Southern Florida? You bet! And so on...  Just as i am not against conservatives in"mirror" districts. But Florida as a state is about R+1-2 now, and it's in a districts (and states) like this where i greatly prefer very moderate candidates. Both Democratic and Republican. And it's only natural for me that "district rules!". Speaking about Florida - a lot of districts in South Florida may elect progressives. Some districts in Central part of the state (Orlando, Tampa, St. Petersburg) - too. But in North Florida such candidates are "natural" only in majority-Black (and, possibly, not everywhere even in such districts) and university districts. So - some districts in Leon, some - in JAX, few - in areas like Gadsden county, and that's all. If Democrats want to be even remotely competitive in other districts - they need to run moderates and even conservatives (who in almost all cases will still look moderate compared with Republican candidates). Tht's so simple.

And let's return to Liberty county for a minute. 75% Democratic registration. Montford (centrist) gets 68% there. Hillary? Less then 20%. So, centrist Montford was still acceptable to most of county Democrats (though most of them are, probably, more conservative then he is), and they were willing to cast their vote for him. While Hillary was something resembling "absolute no-no bold progressive" from their point of view.

Of course i know, that most of North Florida rural counties are not that big. But sometimes they supply exactly votes which make difference between defeat and victory. We all remember 2000 (Bush - Gore) and even last year all (and some more) Trump margin came from 2-3 counties in Panhandle. Subtract them (or get better percentage in them) and result would be different..

[smoltchanov]

Progressives "belong" wherever voters see fit to elect them.

Exactly. And how much of them were elected in R+10 (or higher) districts in 2016? Do you think that "progressive" will be a good candidate in MN-07 after Peterson retirement? Everybody can run everywhere, but one must be realistic about his/her chances..

[smoltchanov]

Progressives "belong" wherever voters see fit to elect them.

Exactly. And how much of them were elected in R+10 (or higher) districts in 2016? Do you think that "progressive" will be a good candidate in MN-07 after Peterson retirement? Everybody can run everywhere, but one must be realistic about his/her chances..

I think running moderates hasn't worked in Florida so it's worth trying something else.  Furthermore, FL is not an R +10 state.

Nelson? Many years as successful moderate. And  Florida is R+1-2 - a perfect moderate territory, but not promising for "bold progressive" for sure.. If it would be D+7 - no problems with that..

P.S. BTW - how many successfull "bold progressives" were elected statewide in Florida history? A lot of moderates, some - very conservative types (including Democratic conservatives in the past), but - preciously few left liberals. You must go back to Claude Pepper probably, and even he was later defeated by conservative.

[smoltchanov]

I'm sorry, but you are completely incorrect about two statements in your post.

1) Centrist democrats are tools of the GOP, making them Democrats in Name Only. You cannot be for both corporatism and labor rights, because they are internally contradictory in terms of their aims & goals.

I am sorry, but it's an absolute lie. I personally know a lot of Democrats (including my US relatives), who don't want to have anything in common with socialism in ANY form (even European "democratic socialism"), and are quite centrist. They have  very little in common with modern day Republicans .... So, i repeat: to equate centrist Democrats with DINO's is a lie. Intentional or not - another matter. And i don't see 2017 as more "liberal" or "advanced"  year then early 1990th. On many issues early 1990th were much more progressive as people's positions on these issues is considered...

And don't assign ALL Democrats your thoughts about what THEY want and what THEY don't want. It's very serious blunder on part of activists of BOTH parties to think that all think the way they think (even in their "own" party), and that their thinking and their ideological conclusions are the only one existing and the only correct.

P.S. All following is not interesting simply because of a principle of mathematical logic: "you can deduce ANY statement from a false one"... In this case basic "axiom" equating centrist Democrats with DINO's is false, hence - all following makes no sense.

P.S. 2 Looking at your nickname i am temted to call myself "Married Straight Capitalist"))). "Married" is, probably, the only thing we have in common)) And even it - in a different way..

[smoltchanov]

Don't worry MGS, I don't think smolts was trying to insult your marriage - he speaks English as a second language, so I think there was no harm done.

Well, in fact i respect all types of marriage. All that i wanted to say here is that my marriage is as good as his (even if some consider it "out of fashion"), but i don't consider it as a "badge of honor" worthy to put it in my nickname. So - all situation  sounded funny to me. If such humor offends a person - it's a person problem, not my... No harm was really intended.

But i absolutely stand by my arguments and conclusions on subject, and no hystery on anybody's part can change it. I have tons of names and numbers corroborating it and it takes much more then empty words to convince me that "i am wrong".

[smoltchanov]

^ Absolutely unwilling. Until you show me a "progressive" winning statewide in Florida after Claude Pepper. And remind me - who is mostly  in majority in Congress, among Governors and in state legislatures after 1994. I believe in facts, not polls...

Sorry, but i remain of the same opinion about you.

[smoltchanov]

^ Absolutely unwilling. Until you show me a "progressive" winning statewide in Florida after Claude Pepper. And remind me - who is mostly  in majority in Congress, among Governors and in state legislatures after 1994. I believe in facts, not polls...

Sorry, but i remain of the same opinion about you.

If you have nothing intelligent to add or to say, then get off my thread.

It's my right to post here and everywhere until i don't write anything bannable. And about intelligent - i consider my posts to be more intelligent then yours. May be YOU will stop to write nonsense?

[smoltchanov]

^ Absolutely unwilling. Until you show me a "progressive" winning statewide in Florida after Claude Pepper.

Can you show me a "moderate" not named Bill Nelson winning statewide in Florida after 1994? The Florida Democratic Party has done what you wanted us to do. We've nominated moderates for statewide office in virtually every election—maybe the only candidate who doesn't fit that mold is Gelber for Attorney General in 2010. The rest of the time we've nominated a lot of moderates for every office in every cycle, and we've have failed to win anything. Why should we keep nominating moderate candidates when twenty years of doing so has won us nothing? Maybe there's not an example of a progressive candidate winning statewide, but if you want to talk facts, the evidence shows that moderates lose every time.

Moderates won at least with Nelson, and "almost won" with other candidates. "Bold progressives" - never, and, as you noted, couldn't even win primaries. Why must i believe that they will win tough general election when there is nothing confirming this "idea"?

[smoltchanov]

Smolt just shut up.

Show me the way and do it yourself, pls... That's your "democracy" Lol...

[smoltchanov]

Actually, comparing the the 2012 and 2014 exit polls, the groups that defected most from Democrats were 18-40 year old voters, eg Millennials, who are the most receptive and arguably most "demanding" of a progressive message. When you compare their support for Obama vs their support for Crist, there is a decently large difference. It's not like they liked Scott so much more - he only got 6% more among 18-29 year olds than Romney did, but it's that they defected en masse to a third party candidate and Crist only pulled 51 - 38 among 18-29 year olds. That is pretty bad for a Democrat in Florida. Millennials are crucial to a Democrat winning here. Among 65+ year olds, Crist got about what Obama got. They don't care if you're moderate or not. They treat all Democrats about the same.

So yes I think there is an argument that maybe a progressive candidate is needed to rally young people. So far it seems that old people in Florida give a moderate about as much support as they'd give a liberal, so it's not really going to hurt Democrats to put up someone like that. Their goals would have to be to get Obama-level numbers of young people, give or take 5% I suppose, and hold the line among baby boomers. But, none of this is to say there aren't limits, either. This is Florida after all, not Vermont.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/FL/governor/
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/

Are you sure that 6% that went to Scott over Romney were progressives? It's a strange way for progressive to go for ultraconservative (much more so then Romney) candidate like Scott...

[smoltchanov]

Are you sure that 6% that went to Scott over Romney were progressives? It's a strange way for progressive to go for ultraconservative (much more so then Romney) candidate like Scott...

Nope, I was just saying that based on the % Crist got among 18-40 year olds, and his margin among 65+ year olds, there is most likely a decent case to be made that a more liberal candidate could have better success in Florida and not really suffer with older voters, as older voters pretty much vote the same way regardless. Of course, "more liberal" is pretty broad - I think more economically liberal or populist even might be better, while not going going overboard on social issues.

I'm not a fan of the perpetual "what we need is a MORE liberal candidate!" line of thinking (even though I would like a liberal ), but Democrats have a lot of room to improve among younger FL voters for sure, and what seems like little room left to fall among the older electorate.

Well, i, obviously, have nothing against testing such plausible hypothesis, though i have doubts about final success of this approach. Especially if progressives can't even win Democratic primary for years, as some people here state. We shall see..

[smoltchanov]

I'm really hoping John Morgan runs for Governor. He's got that nice southern charm and could reinvigorate the Southern Democrats.

His views? They are no less important then charm.

[smoltchanov]

I'm really hoping John Morgan runs for Governor. He's got that nice southern charm and could reinvigorate the Southern Democrats.

His views? They are no less important then charm.

- Legalize marijuana
- Raise the minimum wage
- Stricter enforcement of labor laws
- Criminal justice reform (against private prisons)
- Lower the cost of prescription drugs and crack down on drug companies
- Invest in public schools and teachers (against charter schools)

He's a solid candidate, and I'll be enthusiastically campaigning for him when he decides to run.

In short - a left-wing Democrat. We will see, but - i am skeptical.

[smoltchanov]

I'm really hoping John Morgan runs for Governor. He's got that nice southern charm and could reinvigorate the Southern Democrats.

His views? They are no less important then charm.

- Legalize marijuana
- Raise the minimum wage
- Stricter enforcement of labor laws
- Criminal justice reform (against private prisons)
- Lower the cost of prescription drugs and crack down on drug companies
- Invest in public schools and teachers (against charter schools)

He's a solid candidate, and I'll be enthusiastically campaigning for him when he decides to run.

In short - a left-wing Democrat. We will see, but - i am skeptical.

I dunno if I'd call him a left-winger, though. He has a Jim Justice quality to him but with more progressive policy positions.

Florida now is, probably, more progressive then West Virginia. The question is - by how much?

[smoltchanov]

I'm really hoping John Morgan runs for Governor. He's got that nice southern charm and could reinvigorate the Southern Democrats.

His views? They are no less important then charm.

- Legalize marijuana
- Raise the minimum wage
- Stricter enforcement of labor laws
- Criminal justice reform (against private prisons)
- Lower the cost of prescription drugs and crack down on drug companies
- Invest in public schools and teachers (against charter schools)

He's a solid candidate, and I'll be enthusiastically campaigning for him when he decides to run.

In short - a left-wing Democrat. We will see, but - i am skeptical.

I dunno if I'd call him a left-winger, though. He has a Jim Justice quality to him but with more progressive policy positions.

Florida now is, probably, more progressive then West Virginia. The question is - by how much?

Probably?!

Depends on issue.

[smoltchanov]

Graham all day any day

Ehhh, North Florida is long, long gone in a statewide race.

But it still can give some critically important votes in close race...

[smoltchanov]

Graham all day any day

Ehhh, North Florida is long, long gone in a statewide race.

Graham also is an incredibly strong fundraiser with a golden name who won a Republican district in a Republican year against a Republican incumbent. That alone is impressive.

It's been 12 years since Bob Graham last served in the Senate. It doesn't matter what her name is.

You know that for sure or just guessing?

[smoltchanov]

Graham all day any day

Ehhh, North Florida is long, long gone in a statewide race.

Graham also is an incredibly strong fundraiser with a golden name who won a Republican district in a Republican year against a Republican incumbent. That alone is impressive.

It's been 12 years since Bob Graham last served in the Senate. It doesn't matter what her name is.

You know that for sure or just guessing?

Name recognition doesn't mean anything outside of the Beltway.

You know that or it's your guess?