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Author Topic: OH-16: Renacci vacating to run for Governor  (Read 1045 times)
Figueira
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« on: March 20, 2017, 08:43:44 pm »
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Who runs, and do Democrats have a shot here?
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2017, 08:46:04 pm »
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If things go absolutely sideways, Sutton could try to make a comeback here. Similarly, Mary Taylor could also run if her Gubernatorial run doesn't pan out.
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« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2017, 10:42:39 pm »
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If things go absolutely sideways, Sutton could try to make a comeback here. Similarly, Mary Taylor could also run if her Gubernatorial run doesn't pan out.
Taylor or Sutton wouldn't be able to use any governor's race money for the seat.

Names on the R side:
Sen Obhof
Rep Hagan
Rep Patton
Gop Chair Frost

Possibly Taylor or LaRose but doubtful since they've been raising state money.

Names on D side:
Mayor DiPiero
Mayor Donegan?
Perhaps former rep Boccieri but so little of that district is his old district
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« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2017, 05:31:43 pm »
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If things go absolutely sideways, Sutton could try to make a comeback here. Similarly, Mary Taylor could also run if her Gubernatorial run doesn't pan out.
Taylor or Sutton wouldn't be able to use any governor's race money for the seat.

Names on the R side:
Sen Obhof
Rep Hagan
Rep Patton
Gop Chair Frost

Possibly Taylor or LaRose but doubtful since they've been raising state money.

Names on D side:
Mayor DiPiero
Mayor Donegan?
Perhaps former rep Boccieri but so little of that district is his old district

Hagan, Frost, and Donegan (who was charged with domestic violence) would be awful candidates.  State Representative Tom Patton would definitely be a strong recruit for the Republicans though; I'm not convinced he'll run.  State Representative Nicholas Celebrezze would probably be the strongest potential Democratic candidate.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2017, 05:57:59 pm »
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Celebrezze!? Parma's in the 16th district? I hate our gerrymander so much.
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2017, 01:34:45 am »
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If things go absolutely sideways, Sutton could try to make a comeback here. Similarly, Mary Taylor could also run if her Gubernatorial run doesn't pan out.
Taylor or Sutton wouldn't be able to use any governor's race money for the seat.

Names on the R side:
Sen Obhof
Rep Hagan
Rep Patton
Gop Chair Frost

Possibly Taylor or LaRose but doubtful since they've been raising state money.

Names on D side:
Mayor DiPiero
Mayor Donegan?
Perhaps former rep Boccieri but so little of that district is his old district

Hagan, Frost, and Donegan (who was charged with domestic violence) would be awful candidates.  State Representative Tom Patton would definitely be a strong recruit for the Republicans though; I'm not convinced he'll run.  State Representative Nicholas Celebrezze would probably be the strongest potential Democratic candidate.
I agree they would be weaker candidates, doesn't mean they won't run.

You think Celebrezze would give up the seat? I'm thinking he doesn't and DiPiero runs.
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2017, 05:17:17 pm »
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GOP State rep Tom Patton is in. He should be the front runner
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« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2017, 06:32:18 pm »
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GOP State rep Tom Patton is in. He should be the front runner

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I still think Celebrezze could win if 2018 is a Democratic wave, but this race just got a lot tougher.
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« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2017, 06:44:06 pm »
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GOP State rep Tom Patton is in. He should be the front runner

Well sh!t Sad

I still think Celebrezze could win if 2018 is a Democratic wave, but this race just got a lot tougher.
I don't know too much. Is he considered super strong and (almost) unbeatable in both the primary and general?
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« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2017, 07:59:01 pm »
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GOP State rep Tom Patton is in. He should be the front runner

Well sh!t Sad

I still think Celebrezze could win if 2018 is a Democratic wave, but this race just got a lot tougher.
I don't know too much. Is he considered super strong and (almost) unbeatable in both the primary and general?

Yeah, he's a prolific fundraiser and very popular across both sides in the district.
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2017, 09:40:40 pm »
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GOP State rep Tom Patton is in. He should be the front runner

Well sh!t Sad

I still think Celebrezze could win if 2018 is a Democratic wave, but this race just got a lot tougher.
I don't know too much. Is he considered super strong and (almost) unbeatable in both the primary and general?

Unbeatable is a bit of a stretch, but Patton is an extremely strong candidate.
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« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2017, 10:16:33 pm »
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Patton is still well-known for basically that his opponent in a state House election couldn't serve because she was a mother with young children. He is well-regarded and a strong candidate, but he's gaffe-prone and I doubt he'll get a free shot in the primary.
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« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2017, 11:13:16 pm »
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Patton is still well-known for basically that his opponent in a state House election couldn't serve because she was a mother with young children. He is well-regarded and a strong candidate, but he's gaffe-prone and I doubt he'll get a free shot in the primary.
That's how he's known nationally, in this district he's known as a beloved moderate republican.
There will be a primary but he's easily the front runner in it, most likely his name keeps out any substantial democrat challenger, as Patton will get Union endorsements
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« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2017, 11:18:48 pm »
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It's also Patton's reputation out of the district, but that's neither here nor there.

I assume Celebrezze is probably the only Dem that could take on Patton? It seems doubtful he abandons his role as Asst. Minority Leader unless it looks like we're headed for a giant wave. Though it seems to me Democrats would be gravely mistaken to let this go uncontested.
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« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2017, 11:25:22 pm »
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It's also Patton's reputation out of the district, but that's neither here nor there.

I assume Celebrezze is probably the only Dem that could take on Patton? It seems doubtful he abandons his role as Asst. Minority Leader unless it looks like we're headed for a giant wave. Though it seems to me Democrats would be gravely mistaken to let this go uncontested.
DiPiero perhaps, as he was Celebrezze before Celebrezze. There will be a challenger but it would be really hard to have anyone be the guy to go against Patton. It's tough to run as a democrat when the unions will endorse your opponent.
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« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2017, 06:07:39 am »
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It's also Patton's reputation out of the district, but that's neither here nor there.

I assume Celebrezze is probably the only Dem that could take on Patton? It seems doubtful he abandons his role as Asst. Minority Leader unless it looks like we're headed for a giant wave. Though it seems to me Democrats would be gravely mistaken to let this go uncontested.
DiPiero perhaps, as he was Celebrezze before Celebrezze. There will be a challenger but it would be really hard to have anyone be the guy to go against Patton. It's tough to run as a democrat when the unions will endorse your opponent.

Part of why I suggested Celebrezze is that unions would enthusiastically back him over Patton.
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« Reply #16 on: March 28, 2017, 08:05:25 am »
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This isn't my neck of the woods, so I'm not really familiar with DiPiero, but I'd imagine Celebrezze's last name would help him fundraise?
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« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2017, 10:42:09 am »
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It's also Patton's reputation out of the district, but that's neither here nor there.

I assume Celebrezze is probably the only Dem that could take on Patton? It seems doubtful he abandons his role as Asst. Minority Leader unless it looks like we're headed for a giant wave. Though it seems to me Democrats would be gravely mistaken to let this go uncontested.
DiPiero perhaps, as he was Celebrezze before Celebrezze. There will be a challenger but it would be really hard to have anyone be the guy to go against Patton. It's tough to run as a democrat when the unions will endorse your opponent.

Part of why I suggested Celebrezze is that unions would enthusiastically back him over Patton.
Not all of them, and Patton is guaranteed FOP no matter what he does, I don't see how Celebrezze gets in now. No Patton yeah, but why dump that seat.
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« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2017, 10:45:15 am »
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This isn't my neck of the woods, so I'm not really familiar with DiPiero, but I'd imagine Celebrezze's last name would help him fundraise?
DiPiero was Parma mayor and held that house seat before Celebrezze.
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« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2017, 02:56:01 pm »
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It's also Patton's reputation out of the district, but that's neither here nor there.

I assume Celebrezze is probably the only Dem that could take on Patton? It seems doubtful he abandons his role as Asst. Minority Leader unless it looks like we're headed for a giant wave. Though it seems to me Democrats would be gravely mistaken to let this go uncontested.
DiPiero perhaps, as he was Celebrezze before Celebrezze. There will be a challenger but it would be really hard to have anyone be the guy to go against Patton. It's tough to run as a democrat when the unions will endorse your opponent.

Part of why I suggested Celebrezze is that unions would enthusiastically back him over Patton.
Not all of them, and Patton is guaranteed FOP no matter what he does, I don't see how Celebrezze gets in now. No Patton yeah, but why dump that seat.

No one is talking about the FOP when they say the unions Roll Eyes

Honestly I'm not convinced any unions will actually back Patton unless the Democrats don't bother making a serious play for this seat and I say that as someone who considers Patton an A-list recruit.  I know you really want this to be safe R, but it simply isn't, especially not the way the national mood is right now.  That could change and yes Celebrezze might not run (although I think this will look a lot like the race for Regula's open seat if 2018 is a Democratic wave and Celebrezze runs).  I could see Celebrezze jumping in later on if 2018 is still looking like a Democratic wave.  Plus, Patton does admittedly have a tendency to say stupid sh!t from time to time.  You guys have an A-list recruit, but hardly an unbeatable one.  Patton is definitely the frontrunner, but I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself.
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« Reply #20 on: March 28, 2017, 09:15:07 pm »
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It's also Patton's reputation out of the district, but that's neither here nor there.

I assume Celebrezze is probably the only Dem that could take on Patton? It seems doubtful he abandons his role as Asst. Minority Leader unless it looks like we're headed for a giant wave. Though it seems to me Democrats would be gravely mistaken to let this go uncontested.
DiPiero perhaps, as he was Celebrezze before Celebrezze. There will be a challenger but it would be really hard to have anyone be the guy to go against Patton. It's tough to run as a democrat when the unions will endorse your opponent.

Part of why I suggested Celebrezze is that unions would enthusiastically back him over Patton.
Not all of them, and Patton is guaranteed FOP no matter what he does, I don't see how Celebrezze gets in now. No Patton yeah, but why dump that seat.

No one is talking about the FOP when they say the unions Roll Eyes

Honestly I'm not convinced any unions will actually back Patton unless the Democrats don't bother making a serious play for this seat and I say that as someone who considers Patton an A-list recruit.  I know you really want this to be safe R, but it simply isn't, especially not the way the national mood is right now.  That could change and yes Celebrezze might not run (although I think this will look a lot like the race for Regula's open seat if 2018 is a Democratic wave and Celebrezze runs).  I could see Celebrezze jumping in later on if 2018 is still looking like a Democratic wave.  Plus, Patton does admittedly have a tendency to say stupid sh!t from time to time.  You guys have an A-list recruit, but hardly an unbeatable one.  Patton is definitely the frontrunner, but I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself.

I think it will be a tough sell for union members to dump someone like Patton who they genuinely like, and the FOP is not what you think of, but it's rare a candidate just gets that blind like Patton would.

Celebrezze would have a tough time getting in late, you can't bring state money with you and he's not termed, I don't think the 16th is the safest seat, but it's not a coin flip either, it soft leans R and with Patton it's a harder lean. I don't think Celebrezze runs.
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« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2017, 03:58:15 pm »
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Rep. Christina Hagan (R) is in.
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« Reply #22 on: April 03, 2017, 05:18:24 pm »
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Rep. Christina Hagan (R) is in.

Glorious news, she's a very, very weak candidate who could really blow the general even against a B-list Democrat.
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« Reply #23 on: April 03, 2017, 05:22:39 pm »
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Rep. Christina Hagan (R) is in.
Glorious news, she's a very, very weak candidate who could really blow the general even against a B-list Democrat.
She was one of the presidential electors last year and has a good relationship with Trump, right?
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« Reply #24 on: April 03, 2017, 05:27:55 pm »
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Rep. Christina Hagan (R) is in.
Glorious news, she's a very, very weak candidate who could really blow the general even against a B-list Democrat.
She was one of the presidential electors last year and has a good relationship with Trump, right?

Correct, although she stepped down when people claimed it may violate law.

It'll be an interesting R primary with Patton, Hagan, and other rumored to be throwing their name in. Still no A list names for that seat from the D side.
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