OH-16: Renacci vacating to run for Governor

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If things go absolutely sideways, Sutton could try to make a comeback here. Similarly, Mary Taylor could also run if her Gubernatorial run doesn't pan out.

Taylor or Sutton wouldn't be able to use any governor's race money for the seat.

Names on the R side:
Sen Obhof
Rep Hagan
Rep Patton
Gop Chair Frost

Possibly Taylor or LaRose but doubtful since they've been raising state money.

Names on D side:
Mayor DiPiero
Mayor Donegan?
Perhaps former rep Boccieri but so little of that district is his old district

Hagan, Frost, and Donegan (who was charged with domestic violence) would be awful candidates.  State Representative Tom Patton would definitely be a strong recruit for the Republicans though; I'm not convinced he'll run.  State Representative Nicholas Celebrezze would probably be the strongest potential Democratic candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

GOP State rep Tom Patton is in. He should be the front runner

Well sh!t

I still think Celebrezze could win if 2018 is a Democratic wave, but this race just got a lot tougher.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

GOP State rep Tom Patton is in. He should be the front runner

Well sh!t

I still think Celebrezze could win if 2018 is a Democratic wave, but this race just got a lot tougher.

I don't know too much. Is he considered super strong and (almost) unbeatable in both the primary and general?

Unbeatable is a bit of a stretch, but Patton is an extremely strong candidate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's also Patton's reputation out of the district, but that's neither here nor there.

I assume Celebrezze is probably the only Dem that could take on Patton? It seems doubtful he abandons his role as Asst. Minority Leader unless it looks like we're headed for a giant wave. Though it seems to me Democrats would be gravely mistaken to let this go uncontested.

DiPiero perhaps, as he was Celebrezze before Celebrezze. There will be a challenger but it would be really hard to have anyone be the guy to go against Patton. It's tough to run as a democrat when the unions will endorse your opponent.

Part of why I suggested Celebrezze is that unions would enthusiastically back him over Patton.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It's also Patton's reputation out of the district, but that's neither here nor there.

I assume Celebrezze is probably the only Dem that could take on Patton? It seems doubtful he abandons his role as Asst. Minority Leader unless it looks like we're headed for a giant wave. Though it seems to me Democrats would be gravely mistaken to let this go uncontested.

DiPiero perhaps, as he was Celebrezze before Celebrezze. There will be a challenger but it would be really hard to have anyone be the guy to go against Patton. It's tough to run as a democrat when the unions will endorse your opponent.

Part of why I suggested Celebrezze is that unions would enthusiastically back him over Patton.

Not all of them, and Patton is guaranteed FOP no matter what he does, I don't see how Celebrezze gets in now. No Patton yeah, but why dump that seat.

No one is talking about the FOP when they say the unions

Honestly I'm not convinced any unions will actually back Patton unless the Democrats don't bother making a serious play for this seat and I say that as someone who considers Patton an A-list recruit.  I know you really want this to be safe R, but it simply isn't, especially not the way the national mood is right now.  That could change and yes Celebrezze might not run (although I think this will look a lot like the race for Regula's open seat if 2018 is a Democratic wave and Celebrezze runs).  I could see Celebrezze jumping in later on if 2018 is still looking like a Democratic wave.  Plus, Patton does admittedly have a tendency to say stupid sh!t from time to time.  You guys have an A-list recruit, but hardly an unbeatable one.  Patton is definitely the frontrunner, but I think you're getting a bit ahead of yourself.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Rep. Christina Hagan (R) is in.

Glorious news, she's a very, very weak candidate who could really blow the general even against a B-list Democrat.