Harvard-Harris national poll: Sanders 20% M. Obama 17% Warren 15% Clinton 10%
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  Harvard-Harris national poll: Sanders 20% M. Obama 17% Warren 15% Clinton 10%
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Author Topic: Harvard-Harris national poll: Sanders 20% M. Obama 17% Warren 15% Clinton 10%  (Read 5581 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: March 21, 2017, 08:26:13 AM »

Harvard-Harris national poll for the 2020 Democratic primary, conducted Mar. 14-16:

http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/324903-for-democrats-no-clear-leader

Sanders 20%
M. Obama 17%
Warren 15%
Clinton 10%
Booker 4%
Cuomo 4%
Winfrey 3%
Cuban 2%
None Of The Above 25%

That’s if you poll Democrats.  Here are the results if you poll all voters:

Sanders 14%
M. Obama 11%
Warren 9%
Clinton 8%
Cuban 4%
Cuomo 4%
Booker 3%
Winfrey 3%
None Of The Above 45%

All voters, if Clinton doesn’t run:

Sanders 18%
M. Obama 14%
Warren 10%
“no other candidate got more than 4%”

They also asked who is the leader of the party (Dems only):

B. Obama 16%
Warren 16%
Sanders 14%
Clinton 8%
“no one” or someone else 35%

And if you ask all voters the same question:


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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2017, 08:30:35 AM »

Also of note, only 65% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of their own party.  79% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of their party.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2017, 08:58:50 AM »

Oprah is literally the most acceptable option
...
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Jeppe
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« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2017, 09:03:59 AM »

Clinton will get more popular as time goes on and old wounds heal, along with more favourable coverage as she goes on her book circuit.
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PPT Spiral
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2017, 09:08:52 AM »

Clinton will get more popular as time goes on and old wounds heal, along with more favourable coverage as she goes on her book circuit.

Yes. This is why she runs, and why liberals will go YAAS QUEEN once more.
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Shadows
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2017, 09:16:12 AM »

It is pretty clear that Sanders-Warren wing will decide the nominee & Booker-Cuomo etc have no chance & stature.

This is the best Clinton can do, if she wins the nomination, Sanders supporters will be so frustrated that they will honestly want the Dem party to burn & let Trump run amock & cause ruin - She has no chance of winning the GE - Everyone hates her bar her core base. Clinton lost against Trump & has destroyed the Senate/SC, I don't how you recover from that !

Michelle Obama being here completely spoils the result (Now no1 knows the result without her) - The poll should have been made without her !
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2017, 09:22:46 AM »

If Sanders runs, he wins. Only Biden could make it a tossup.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2017, 09:39:08 AM »

Bernie Sanders has a chance to win the 2020 Democratic nomination, but he has to do well with black and Latino voters first. The Bernie wing doesn't know how badly he will be attacked for his socialist record. Trump will go for the jugular.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2017, 09:54:35 AM »

Bernie Sanders has a chance to win the 2020 Democratic nomination, but he has to do well with black and Latino voters first.

Sanders managed to get 43% of the vote in the 2016 primaries while not doing very well with minority voters.  A 43% plurality can easily get you the nomination in a crowded field, so I don't see why Sanders (or Warren, for that matter) couldn't win the nomination even while not actually doing that well among minority voters, depending on the state of the opposition.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2017, 09:55:57 AM »

If Sanders runs, he wins. Only Biden could make it a tossup.
He needs to appeal to minorities first. I'm not sure he will.
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mvd10
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« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2017, 10:01:46 AM »

Am I the only person who for a split second thought that M. Obama meant Malik Obama? Anyway, I'm surprised that Sanders isn't higher. His age is a problem, but almost nobody mentioned it in 2016 and it's not like the other candidates are that young.
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Figueira
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« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2017, 10:10:47 AM »

Voters will be sorely disappointed when their top four choices don't run.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2017, 10:11:12 AM »

That 25% unsure is why I still think Bullock would be the perfect dark horse canidate in 2020 if he ran
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Ronnie
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« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2017, 10:20:01 AM »

I couldn't be happier that we don't have a leader right now.  Unlike the U.K. Labour Party, which has engaged in a circular firing squad and is toxic to the general public because of Corbyn, we have the opportunity to get our sh**t in order before worrying about trifling things like that.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2017, 10:47:29 AM »

That 25% unsure is why I still think Bullock would be the perfect dark horse canidate in 2020 if he ran
Bullock will have an opportunity only if Sanders doesn't run IMO. Same thing with other guys like Sherrod Brown. Sanders is just so popular with such a high name recognition it's gonna be impossible to stop him if he runs. I do think that Bullock is probably one of the best challenges to Trump possible. I could totally see him winning Iowa ahead of Booker and Warren, then go on to win the Nevada caucus.
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Anna Komnene
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« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2017, 11:16:03 AM »

It is pretty clear that Sanders-Warren wing will decide the nominee & Booker-Cuomo etc have no chance & stature.

As much as I can't stand Cuomo, I don't think that's clear at all.  Out of everyone on the list, those are probably the 2 with the lowest name recognition.  People don't usually say they'll vote for someone if they don't know who they are or what they stand for.  That's probably also partly why Winfrey and Cuban are so low.  People are like... "okay but why are they running?"  They'll have to answer that question if they actually do.  Actually, I think the worst performers here are Sanders and Clinton.  With the name recognition and campaigns they just ran, their numbers are pretty poor with a lot of people knowing who they are and what they stand for but saying they'd rather vote for a random nobody instead. 

Though I'm skeptical of polls this far out anyway.  This is kind of a joke list to me, and I would have picked "none of the above" if they asked me.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2017, 11:29:26 AM »

If Sanders runs he'll clear the progressive field. If Warren runs she might do so (especially if she gets the Sanders endorsement) but it's less likely IMHO.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2017, 11:40:43 AM »

If Sanders runs, he wins. Only Biden could make it a tossup.
He needs to appeal to minorities first. I'm not sure he will.

Bahahaha ok.
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henster
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« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2017, 11:43:27 AM »

So people are just happy to have a 79 year old nominee who'd be 88 years old should he make it to a 2nd term... I mean I know people like Bernie but the party needs to move past the geriatrics.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2017, 11:44:21 AM »

Why on Earth are they including Clinton and Michelle Obama as options at all, and why not make the one who they test with/without Sanders or Biden, since they seem to be the ones actually on the fence?
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #20 on: March 21, 2017, 11:47:06 AM »

So Barack Obama hasn't made a peep since Trump's inauguration about any issues, yet he's supposed to be the leader of the party? What the hell?
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Shadows
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« Reply #21 on: March 21, 2017, 11:48:12 AM »
« Edited: March 21, 2017, 12:17:35 PM by Shadows »

Bernie Sanders has a chance to win the 2020 Democratic nomination, but he has to do well with black and Latino voters first.

Sanders managed to get 43% of the vote in the 2016 primaries while not doing very well with minority voters.  A 43% plurality can easily get you the nomination in a crowded field, so I don't see why Sanders (or Warren, for that matter) couldn't win the nomination even while not actually doing that well among minority voters, depending on the state of the opposition.


46% of the Pledged delegates. In 4 years a new 14-17 year old bloc gets added, putting Sanders over the 50% (without considering all the challenges he had in 2016).

I don't think the Minority thing matters hugely for the GE for Sanders or Warren or Gillibrand or Booker (they are all guaranteed a very good number) , it is a challenge for the Dem Primary. Sanders won HI (the most diverse state), won Natives, Asian Americans & Hispanics in many states but did very poorly African Americans (especially Southern Blacks) - A group where only 3 candidates can trounce him in 2020 - Clinton, Biden & M. Obama. Biden is at this point the only candidate who can make it a close race !

In general, his favorability among the black community remained very high & they just liked Clinton more, but they had a favorable opinion of him!
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Shadows
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« Reply #22 on: March 21, 2017, 12:11:31 PM »
« Edited: March 21, 2017, 12:55:04 PM by Shadows »

It is pretty clear that Sanders-Warren wing will decide the nominee & Booker-Cuomo etc have no chance & stature.

As much as I can't stand Cuomo, I don't think that's clear at all.  Out of everyone on the list, those are probably the 2 with the lowest name recognition.  People don't usually say they'll vote for someone if they don't know who they are or what they stand for.  That's probably also partly why Winfrey and Cuban are so low.  People are like... "okay but why are they running?"  They'll have to answer that question if they actually do.  Actually, I think the worst performers here are Sanders and Clinton.  With the name recognition and campaigns they just ran, their numbers are pretty poor with a lot of people knowing who they are and what they stand for but saying they'd rather vote for a random nobody instead.  

Though I'm skeptical of polls this far out anyway.  This is kind of a joke list to me, and I would have picked "none of the above" if they asked me.

I think the best Cuomo can be is Jeb II ! Booker has received more from Wall Street (add speaking fees) than what Hillary did as a Senator. He supports Charter School, a complete flop in a Dem primary. That drug import vote will stay for him & people are looking at every vote of his in the next 4 years ! He is the bunny of the Sanders' wing - The epitome of all things messed up. Imagine Booker's Super-pac raising 20M from Wall Street in 2020! You have to see the videos of Dore, Kyle & others to see the hatred for this man. That whole Justice Dem to primary happened after the Drug import vote. A fan of Bernie made an ad for them & it has picture of Booker as the only Corporate Dem apart from Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

Sanders' numbers are being massively depressed due to the age thing & apprehension if he will be running in 2020 - That is transferring some of his voters to Warren & others. Sanders has a 91% favorability among Clinton's Dem 2016 voters in the last poll, so he is in a good position to get more voters!
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UWS
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« Reply #23 on: March 21, 2017, 12:27:11 PM »

If Sanders runs, he wins. Only Biden could make it a tossup.
He needs to appeal to minorities first. I'm not sure he will.

And yet he campaigned alongside Martin Luther King in the 1960s to fight in favor of African Americans' civil rights and was even arrested for this. Remember that.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: March 21, 2017, 02:42:30 PM »

Why on Earth are they including Clinton and Michelle Obama as options at all, and why not make the one who they test with/without Sanders or Biden, since they seem to be the ones actually on the fence?

The list is pretty stupid, with Obama and Winfrey being particularly dumb inclusions.  The only names listed here who I’d actually include in my list of top 8 most likely people to run for the nomination would be Booker, Cuomo, and Warren.  My top 8 most likely people to run (not the same as the most likely to win) are:

O’Malley
Booker
Cuomo
Warren
Gillibrand
Castro
Klobuchar
Harris

But your mileage may very.  Could also make a case for Murphy, Bullock, Sanders, McAuliffe, etc.  All of them are many times more likely to run than Michelle Obama or Oprah Winfrey.

Though I take the point that the average person has no clue who Julian Castro or Amy Klobuchar are, so I can understand dropping names like that off the list, but including Sanders and maybe Biden (but then also asking the hypothetical about who you’d support if they don’t run).
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