AHCA Whip Count

[Ebsy]

This could not be more of a disaster for Ryan.

[ApatheticAustrian]

"We want the vote," senior administration official says. "If they want to go against the president, they should do it on live TV."
https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/845324881248112641

[publicunofficial]

Imagine a midterm where every Republican either voted for AHCA, or had Trump publically call for their defeat.

[Confused Democrat]

I'm still expecting this bill to pass against all odds. I'm cynical like that.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Spicer: President Trump is "excited" to move on to tax reform once health care reform is behind him
https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/845331762897211393



GOP aide on CapHill: "I'm starting to think that while we're pretty good at winning elections, we're not great at the whole governing thing"
https://twitter.com/Alex_Roarty/status/845327186227810304

[Confused Democrat]

Rep. Jim Renacci (R-OH) is a yes.

[publicunofficial]

Rep. Jim Renacci (R-OH) is a yes.

Gotta get those bonafides for the Gov primary.

[Ebsy]

Rep. Jim Renacci (R-OH) is a yes.

If the state of play is that his vote was in doubt, things are very, very bad.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm still scared this will pass somehow, since it's literally being framed as this or ObamaCare Forever.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Duffy undecided, but looks like leaning yes:

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[publicunofficial]

I'm still scared this will pass somehow, since it's literally being framed as this or ObamaCare Forever.

Spoiler: A large number of elected Republicans have been lying to you about how much they hate Obamacare.

[ilikeverin]

I'm still scared this will pass somehow, since it's literally being framed as this or ObamaCare Forever.

Well, by the middle of this week, this was Trump's best play.  It's simple game theory; if one side is willing to compromise, and the other side is unwilling to compromise, but both sides need to get something done, the side that is unwilling to compromise will get what it wants, because the side that's willing to compromise will keep bending over to make sure the thing gets done.

tbh, it is a good negotiating tactic once you get to this point on Trump's part, I'll give him that.  My sense is that the awkward collaboration between Paul Ryan and Trump is preventing this from being effective because Ryan keeps capitulating and offering compromises.  If you're going to be the uncompromising person, you have to stick to it absolutely.  Budging at all shows that you're bluffing.  You have to convince everyone in the negotiation (even yourself, if possible!  that's what emotions are for, in part!) that you meant it heart and soul when you say it's "all or nothing".  By offering any compromises and (worse yet) speculating about backup options or pulling the bill, Trump and Ryan are weakening their negotiating positions, because they're signalling that they're willing to negotiate.

[publicunofficial]

I'm still scared this will pass somehow, since it's literally being framed as this or ObamaCare Forever.

Well, by the middle of this week, this was Trump's best play.  It's simple game theory; if one side is willing to compromise, and the other side is unwilling to compromise, but both sides need to get something done, the side that is unwilling to compromise will get what it wants, because the side that's willing to compromise will keep bending over to make sure the thing gets done.

tbh, it is a good negotiating tactic once you get to this point on Trump's part, I'll give him that.  My sense is that the awkward collaboration between Paul Ryan and Trump is preventing this from being effective because Ryan keeps capitulating and offering compromises.  If you're going to be the uncompromising person, you have to stick to it absolutely.  Budging at all shows that you're bluffing.  You have to convince everyone in the negotiation (even yourself, if possible!  that's what emotions are for, in part!) that you meant it heart and soul when you say it's "all or nothing".  By offering any compromises and (worse yet) speculating about backup options or pulling the bill, Trump and Ryan are weakening their negotiating positions, because they're signalling that they're willing to negotiate.

Trump literally ignoring his own books's advice. Worst thing you can do is show you're in a position of need.

[ilikeverin]

I'm still scared this will pass somehow, since it's literally being framed as this or ObamaCare Forever.

Well, by the middle of this week, this was Trump's best play.  It's simple game theory; if one side is willing to compromise, and the other side is unwilling to compromise, but both sides need to get something done, the side that is unwilling to compromise will get what it wants, because the side that's willing to compromise will keep bending over to make sure the thing gets done.

tbh, it is a good negotiating tactic once you get to this point on Trump's part, I'll give him that.  My sense is that the awkward collaboration between Paul Ryan and Trump is preventing this from being effective because Ryan keeps capitulating and offering compromises.  If you're going to be the uncompromising person, you have to stick to it absolutely.  Budging at all shows that you're bluffing.  You have to convince everyone in the negotiation (even yourself, if possible!  that's what emotions are for, in part!) that you meant it heart and soul when you say it's "all or nothing".  By offering any compromises and (worse yet) speculating about backup options or pulling the bill, Trump and Ryan are weakening their negotiating positions, because they're signalling that they're willing to negotiate.

Trump literally ignoring his own books's advice. Worst thing you can do is show you're in a position of need.

See, that's why I think it might be Paul Ryan messing things up even more than Trump.  Trump's public signals have all been pretty good and pretty firm, even to the point where he's saying Paul Ryan still needs to put this measure up to a vote even when Ryan doesn't believe he has the votes to pass it.  A lot of the compromising and the waffling and the delaying votes or moving things around has all come out of Ryan's office.

[Middle-aged Europe]

This is gonna crash as hard as a car hitting a concrete wall at 100 mph.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Hearing from multiple GOP sources that leadership is desperate to pull this bill.
https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/845340361698541568

[senyor_brownbear]

Sort of off topic question:

In 2015 Republicans passed a "full repeal" bill in Congress that Obama had to veto.  How did a bill like that go through reconciliation?  Didn't that bill change regulations, add to the deficit, etc?  The sort of things that Republicans are so carefully trying to avoid now?

[Confused Democrat]

Hearing from multiple GOP sources that leadership is desperate to pull this bill.
https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/845340361698541568

Nothing is stopping Ryan from pulling the bill. It's ultimately his decision, not the President's.

[publicunofficial]

Sort of off topic question:

In 2015 Republicans passed a "full repeal" bill in Congress that Obama had to veto.  How did a bill like that go through reconciliation?  Didn't that bill change regulations, add to the deficit, etc?  The sort of things that Republicans are so carefully trying to avoid now?

Yeah but no one cared about the language of that bill, because everyone knew Obama would veto it and would never actually made law.

[Gass3268]

NYT Upshot has a live vote tracker:

Tracker

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sort of off topic question:

In 2015 Republicans passed a "full repeal" bill in Congress that Obama had to veto.  How did a bill like that go through reconciliation?  Didn't that bill change regulations, add to the deficit, etc?  The sort of things that Republicans are so carefully trying to avoid now?

I'm not super familiar with the exact language of that bill, but I will note that no one was really paying attention to it since everyone knew Obama would veto it and Congress didn't have the votes to override. Hence why Republicans universally supported it - and also why it may have been allowed to bend the rules. Also, the decision of whether something fits reconciliation falls to the senate parliamentarian, who can basically make whatever decision they want (although they can be overruled by the VP).

[Tartarus Sauce]

Hearing from multiple GOP sources that leadership is desperate to pull this bill.
https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/845340361698541568

Nothing is stopping Ryan from pulling the bill. It's ultimately his decision, not the President's.

They're damned if they do and damned if they don't. If Ryan pulls the bill, Trump will blame him. If they hold a floor vote and it fails, Trump will blame Ryan anyway. Trump has already committed to throwing Ryan under the bus, easy to do since Breitbart and Co. have been setting him up as a fall guy for months.

[Edu]

[Confused Democrat]

Looks like the bill is dead. The only question now is whether or not Ryan is going to defy the President and pull the bill.