AHCA Whip Count

[publicunofficial]

Chris Smith and Frank LoBiondo will vote No

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This thing is sunk.

[publicunofficial]

Thomas Massie, at least, is still a no.

[publicunofficial]

The worst thing for Republicans would be to hold a vote, getting representatives on the record as supporting it, and then having it not pass.

[publicunofficial]

Really disappointed that Cathy McMorris Rodgers still supports this bill.

She's the number 3 or 4 Republican in the House. She never votes against leadership.

What's crazy is Reichert was still supporting it last time I checked.

[publicunofficial]

Comstock is a no, per WaPo.

[publicunofficial]

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FULL STEAM AHEAD

[publicunofficial]

If the bill's failure is common knowledge, expect anyone and everyone facing a tough re-election to join the No side.

[publicunofficial]

Rep. Joyce is a No.

[publicunofficial]

Imagine a midterm where every Republican either voted for AHCA, or had Trump publically call for their defeat.

[publicunofficial]

Rep. Jim Renacci (R-OH) is a yes.

Gotta get those bonafides for the Gov primary.

[publicunofficial]

I'm still scared this will pass somehow, since it's literally being framed as this or ObamaCare Forever.

Spoiler: A large number of elected Republicans have been lying to you about how much they hate Obamacare.

[publicunofficial]

I'm still scared this will pass somehow, since it's literally being framed as this or ObamaCare Forever.

Well, by the middle of this week, this was Trump's best play.  It's simple game theory; if one side is willing to compromise, and the other side is unwilling to compromise, but both sides need to get something done, the side that is unwilling to compromise will get what it wants, because the side that's willing to compromise will keep bending over to make sure the thing gets done.

tbh, it is a good negotiating tactic once you get to this point on Trump's part, I'll give him that.  My sense is that the awkward collaboration between Paul Ryan and Trump is preventing this from being effective because Ryan keeps capitulating and offering compromises.  If you're going to be the uncompromising person, you have to stick to it absolutely.  Budging at all shows that you're bluffing.  You have to convince everyone in the negotiation (even yourself, if possible!  that's what emotions are for, in part!) that you meant it heart and soul when you say it's "all or nothing".  By offering any compromises and (worse yet) speculating about backup options or pulling the bill, Trump and Ryan are weakening their negotiating positions, because they're signalling that they're willing to negotiate.

Trump literally ignoring his own books's advice. Worst thing you can do is show you're in a position of need.

[publicunofficial]

Sort of off topic question:

In 2015 Republicans passed a "full repeal" bill in Congress that Obama had to veto.  How did a bill like that go through reconciliation?  Didn't that bill change regulations, add to the deficit, etc?  The sort of things that Republicans are so carefully trying to avoid now?

Yeah but no one cared about the language of that bill, because everyone knew Obama would veto it and would never actually made law.

[publicunofficial]

Democrats are gathered on the House floor ready for a vote, reportedly "smiling and making jokes about the bill"

[publicunofficial]

Breaking News: It's pulled. They don't have the votes.

[publicunofficial]

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Spoiler alert: He's gonna blame Paul Ryan.

[publicunofficial]

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[publicunofficial]

Biggest losers are the Republicans who already voted to bring the AHCA out of committee, and for nothing. Namely, Leonard Lance.

[publicunofficial]

I don't think people realize how bad Trump's negotiation skills were here.

-Doesn't know anything about healthcare policy, so he can't come up with proposals on his own.

-Publically says he will go after Mark Meadows if he votes no. This makes a situation where Meadows will be humiliated if he switches his vote to yes.

Just all over the place bad.

[publicunofficial]

I don't know why everyone is blaming the Freedom Caucus, most of whom were willing to cave.

Conservative anger SHOULD be directed at the moderates who wanted to keep the Medicaid expansion and the like.

[publicunofficial]

So the Republicans shoddily put something together quickly and then just give up on it?

I'd be curious how Republican voters here feel about this, since it was Republicans' number one campaign promise (to repeal Obamacare)...

Also, considering they had been talking about repealing Obamacare for ages, why didn't they have a plan in place?

Because it was a political prop and nothing else. They're not interested in actually governing or legislating for their constituents (i.e., the people who vote for them). They're just interested in being in power. The present-day Republican party is a shadow of its former self.

I don't think that's it.  There's something else going on here.

No. Republicans don't like Obamacare, but unlike their base are smart enough to realize America's healthcare system pre-ACA is not something anyone wants to go back to (Except for NIMBY Virginians, apparently...). There's nothing they could propose to satisfy both sides.