AHCA Whip Count (user search)
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Author Topic: AHCA Whip Count  (Read 38253 times)
The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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« on: March 23, 2017, 08:28:23 PM »

Enough Republicans will pass it in the House. But it will die in the Senate. Trump's ultimatum is an out for him. And it's designed to do one thing. Keep ObamaCare.

The Republicans know it too. They want the law to stay compared to the alternative. That's the point of all this kabuki theater. They're figuring out who gets to be the bad guys saying no to #AHCA.

Trump will give up / change the topic after the Senate kills the bill.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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Posts: 3,272


« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2017, 08:32:01 PM »

The way to know Trump is moving on? Remember he lost the popular vote. His approval rating is underwater. And this bill is unpopular. Republicans don't want to deal with the fallout in 2018.

Obama's Great Gamble has paid off. After Easter the Republican Party will own ObamaCare -- in full. And the nation continues on the road to replacing the ACA with a stronger liberal healthcare law.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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Posts: 3,272


« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2017, 03:37:38 AM »
« Edited: March 24, 2017, 03:41:16 AM by TD »

Ironically Paul Ryan is a more orthodox conservative than Donald Trump. The Republican Party is a neoliberal libertarian party at heart and is fundamentally anti-populist. The AHCA, as bad as it is, reflects that fundamental Republican ideology. The problem with the AHCA isn't the ideological thrust. It's the fact that it executes neoliberalist limited government principles badly.

Paul Ryan isn't wrong that we need to reform Medicare.  In fact that's one reason I voted for Mitt Romney. The 2012 Republican ticket recognized our safety net needs either major reforms or higher taxes to finance it. Obama demagogued the issue but Romney recognized the reality. And in 2016 we chose to join the Democrats in brushing the issue under the rug.

The problem is that the populists want a Republican Party that simply does not exist in meaningful numbers. The Populists want to basically see a big government Republican Party that accepts the flawed New Deal and Great Society while executing a hard right on immigration and border security.

(P.S. Ryan for president)
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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Posts: 3,272


« Reply #3 on: March 24, 2017, 02:48:13 PM »

It's over. The United States is now irrevocably on the march to a universal healthcare scheme. Barack Obama has won his war. The Republican Party has unconditionally surrendered on health care.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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Posts: 3,272


« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2017, 03:06:48 PM »

#44 looks definitely better than #45 right now. Definitely one of these defining moments about the Trump Presidency. Oh, and Trump's bluffing about Democratic cooperation and the law imploding. ObamaCare now is owned by the Republicans. There's no replacement plan forthcoming.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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Posts: 3,272


« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2017, 03:49:03 PM »


He'll learn soon enough. He's now responsible for ObamaCare succeeding. The Republicans will quietly transition to being supporters of the law.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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Posts: 3,272


« Reply #6 on: March 24, 2017, 04:00:29 PM »

Trump is a fundamentally weak president at the end of a conservative era. This is for all intents and purposes the beginning of the end. There may and probably will be Republican victories on tax reform and infrastructure reform and even one more election but in the end we know Trump is fundamentally weak. All we need is this to play out.

That's the take home lesson. The stage is now set.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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Posts: 3,272


« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2017, 04:07:21 PM »

The other lesson to be drawn from this: the 44th president will have a more robust and durable legacy than the 45th president -- by far. The legacy of Barack Obama is now enshrined in law for all time until universal healthcare comes.

Obama's great gamble, his great game, paid off. We now know he was a far better strategist and had a more far reaching vision of the world. With Ryan's words that ObamaCare is here to stay the Republican Party has committed itself to preserving his legacy and worldview.

Stunning historical victory for Obama.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,272


« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2017, 04:15:11 PM »
« Edited: March 24, 2017, 04:17:41 PM by TD »

The other lesson to be drawn from this: the 44th president will have a more robust and durable legacy than the 45th president -- by far. The legacy of Barack Obama is now enshrined in law for all time until universal healthcare comes.

Obama's great gamble, his great game, paid off. We now know he was a far better strategist and had a more far reaching vision of the world. With Ryan's words that ObamaCare is here to stay the Republican Party has committed itself to preserving his legacy and worldview.

Stunning historical victory for Obama.
Obama's legacy is mixed. He left with strained race relations. It's probably too early to judge.

Nope. the healthcare law was his one hill. On it hinges so many things. He fought for the law knowing if it passed it opens the door to single payer. It opens the door to government regulation of the financial sector. It makes government actively involved in the delivery of a major economic good. The precedent is set. It's why he sacrificed Congress. Pelosi knows it too. She willingly fought for this moment.

Government now has an undisputed role in guaranteeing quality and accees of a good, namely healthcare. That precedent now means the next great Democratic coalition will be able to shoehorn their dreams on other issues. Namely...education and the financial system.

This is the hill of the next decade. And Obama just checkmated the Republican Party.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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Posts: 3,272


« Reply #9 on: March 24, 2017, 04:51:46 PM »

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Obama went big deliberately in 2010 against the advice of Rahm Emanuel. He's been in favor of single payer since 1993 and recently said he would've started with single payer if he redid the law.

He implemented this law because he, fundamentally, wanted to enshrine healthcare as a right. He anticipated the costs issues actually, which is why he fought for a public option. Obama from the start knew that a great law wasn't possible without a transition. Why do you think he brought Big Pharma on board? Expanded Medicaid? He was systematically building constituencies for health care. Obama's never intended the ACA as the final end point.

The name of the game is simple. Get people comfortable with government guaranteeing certain healthcare benefits and access and standards of care. And then do a UHC deal.

The next step is clear to the Left. They will point to the good things the law does and argue for a more liberal model that reins in insurance premium hikes, and enact it.

And 8-12 years. The economic and demographic trends and issues are converging on the next Democratic coalition. Your error is to assume an eternal conservative coalition in this country when one has existed since 1980 and to assume the Reagan era will indefinitely continue for another generation.

Lastly, healthcare is a major economic issue, you do understand, because healthcare costs have outpaced inflation considerably. The Republican Party is inherently unwilling to truly tackle that issue.
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The_Doctor
SilentCal1924
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Posts: 3,272


« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2017, 05:04:39 PM »

No single payer, no public option, not even a weak public option. Sure, the ACA was a big bill, but he didn't really go that big.

Obama did what he could under the restrictions of the political era. The rules of politics in the United States have to be rewritten to allow that stuff to go through. The ACA was barely acceptable.

But time will produce the demand for comprehensive health insurance particularly as Trump's policies fails to help the working class that voted for him. The intensified need for healthcare reform to help those left behind by globalism will produce the majority Democrats need.
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