AHCA Whip Count

[Ronnie]

Here is The Hill's list, which is being continually updated:

No: 20
Leaning/Likely No: 7
Unclear/Uncertain: 14
Leaning/Likely Yes: 5
Yes: 76

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/322903-the-hills-whip-list-where-republicans-stand-on-obamacare-repeal-plan

[Ronnie]

Freedom Caucus threatens formal opposition to Obamacare replacement bill barring dramatic changes by Wednesday night

Looks like Republicans will have to drag this process out for much longer than they would have wanted.  Fantastic!

[Ronnie]

According to new updates on The Hill, the bill is only two "hard" No's away from certain failure.  Combined "hard" and "soft" No's equal 27.

[Ronnie]

Now that Ted Budd has said no, Republicans can only afford to lose one more vote to save the bill.

EDIT:

Mo Brooks will vote no.  The bill in its current form is dead.

[Ronnie]

Now that Ted Budd has said no, Republicans can only afford to lose one more vote to save the bill.

EDIT:

Mo Brooks will vote no.  The bill in its current form is dead.

At this point I'll be shocked if Ryan doesn't hold off the vote.

What's the point of doing that, though?  To bring enough people back into the fold, he'd need to shift the bill significantly to the right, and therefore, completely kill any prospect it might have had of passing in the senate.

[Ronnie]

Big news, if true:

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https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/844594031892086784

[Ronnie]

It looks like Republicans are beginning to cave.  I think it'll squeak by, perhaps by one or two votes.

[Ronnie]

Steve King is now a yes:
https://mobile.twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/844614838206763009

He was never on any whip list as a no.

The Hill listed him as a no, actually.

[Ronnie]

Steve King is now a yes:
https://mobile.twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/844614838206763009

He was never on any whip list as a no.

The Hill listed him as a no, actually.

Did they? There have been so many different lists.

I agree with you that this narrowly passes in the House. Senate is an entirely different animal.

Let's not kid ourselves...Senate will probably cave too.

I'm much less sure about the senate.  Unlike Freedom Caucus hacks, who represent bleached, gerrymandered districts, many Republican senators live in big and/or diverse and/or purple states.  They have to reconcile many different interests, and grapple with angry constituents.  They likely won't succumb to a president with a 40% approval rating just because he asks them to.

[Ronnie]

I doubt it...virtually all of the tea party governors were re-elected despite the fact they all destroyed their own states

If ACA is repealed...nobody will face consequences

The GOP has realized that they can screw over their constituency and never face any consequences. That's why they're going full speed with this god awful bill

The key difference now is that they aren't able to pin their woes on an incumbent Democratic president.  Democrats are completely powerless now, which makes blaming them harder, and also makes the Democratic base more likely to turn out to the polls than before.

[Ronnie]

New Harwood tweet:

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https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/844630719058116610

[Ronnie]

White House considering more conservative changes to AHCA
https://mobile.twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/844664876962369538

What a deal! Giving in always works!

Again, what's the point?  Are they hoping they can somehow induce Collins or Heller to support the bill?

[Ronnie]

John Harwood‏ @JohnJHarwood
House Freedom Caucus source says odds of AHCA passing have improved after GOP leaders offered to eliminate "essential health benefits"

How exactly will the senate take this up now?

[Ronnie]

Seriously I looked it up this new offer is pre-existing converge gone and insurance companies can cover as little as they want

How though? Wouldn't that take 60 votes?

Maybe that's the plan. Pass a bill in the House that the Senate can't possibly pass, blame Democrats for filibustering, and move on to tax reform.

But Democrats wouldn't need to filibuster if Republicans can't even get to 50 (+1) votes in the senate.

[Ronnie]

Norm Ornstein & Eric Boehlert sum things up pretty well:

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https://twitter.com/NormOrnstein/status/844765857234350081

[Ronnie]

Sounds like even if they give the Freedom Caucus all they want, the moderates will then walk away. Almost no way to needle this through.

And even if they somehow succeed, the senate will just kill the bill on its own and put forward its own bill.  What's the point of all this?

[Ronnie]

Sounds like even if they give the Freedom Caucus all they want, the moderates will then walk away. Almost no way to needle this through.

And even if they somehow succeed, the senate will just kill the bill on its own and put forward its own bill.  What's the point of all this?

Trump and Ryan showing to the world that at least they had been serious about repealing Obamacare.

Is that going to be their argument in 2018?  "Vote for us because we were serious about repealing Obamacare"?

[Ronnie]

FWIW:

It's worth nothing.  Spicer lies through his teeth every single day.

[Ronnie]

Looking forward to an unsuccessful vote tonight

I don't think they'll have a vote.  They'll just pull the bill and try to move on to tax reform.

[Ronnie]

Why was it so critical for them to pass it tonight?  I think it might be good for them to take a breather, and figure out exactly what they want to do.

[Ronnie]

TBT to literally two hours ago:

"Nothing leads me to believe that that's the case."
-Sean Spicer, on whether the vote will be postponed

Sean Spicer swallows gum. Nuff said. No reason to listen to him.

How much does he have to lie to compel the press to stop legitimizing him?  Major media outlets should begin boycotting his press briefings, pronto.

[Ronnie]

Jake Sherman @JakeSherman  2m2 minutes ago
MULVANEY: if the AHCA vote fails, nation is stuck w Obamacare. In other words, trump is done. Negotiations are over.

If Trump's playing 8D chess and wants to keep Obamacare without having to catch heat from Republicans, he may have just accomplished it.

It's far more likely that he's playing checkers, and losing.

[Ronnie]

I'm going to stick with the inclination I've had for most of the past couple weeks: the bill will pass by one or two votes on the house floor, and die in the senate.

[Ronnie]

Apparently, backroom dealing has led to changes nobody knows about:

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https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/845073787817201666

[Ronnie]

If Ryan resigns, who might replace him as speaker?