Norway election, 11th September 2017

[mileslunn]

V 71%
H - 70%
FRP - 64%

[mileslunn]

Venstre leader Trine Skei Grande now promises that the party will support any centre-right/right-wing government over one which includes Ap. This could be a quite wise move, at least in the short term, for a party that is close to the threshold, as it certainly means that voters who prefer a centre-right government could feel safe in lending them a tactical vote. Some moderate heroes or those with strong Frp-antipathies might not like it, but they are probably a smaller group and I would guess that many has already left the party. Venstre has not been as hesitant as KrF in working with FrP, but until now they have not ruled out cooperation with the centre-left parties. Grande still says that she would prefer a Høyre-Venstre-KrF government to a continued Høyre-FrP, but if an agreement can't be reached on the first option, she would continue to prefer the latter over working with Ap and the other left-wing parties.

Seems tactically smart.  My question is MDG and R are not part of either one but if either are both cross the 4% line wouldn't the throw their support behind a Labour led.  For the centre-right coalition I am thinking they absolutely need the Venstre to cross the 4% line while hope MDG and R stay below it while for the centre-left coalition they may not rely on either but I cannot see MDG or R allowing a centre-right to go through.  The only way the centre-right could survive in that scenario is convince the Centre Party to switch allegiances but not sure how likely that is.  I don't see why MDG couldn't join the centre-left one if they cross the 4% mark and perhaps maybe if they agree to that you might get some tactical voting.  R is a bit trickier as they are on the extreme left and I am not sure AP wants to be relying on them, nonetheless if they held the balance of power, it is pretty obvious which way they would go.

[mileslunn]

My question is MDG and R are not part of either one but if either are both cross the 4% line wouldn't the throw their support behind a Labour led.  For the centre-right coalition I am thinking they absolutely need the Venstre to cross the 4% line while hope MDG and R stay below it while for the centre-left coalition they may not rely on either but I cannot see MDG or R allowing a centre-right to go through.  The only way the centre-right could survive in that scenario is convince the Centre Party to switch allegiances but not sure how likely that is.  I don't see why MDG couldn't join the centre-left one if they cross the 4% mark and perhaps maybe if they agree to that you might get some tactical voting.  R is a bit trickier as they are on the extreme left and I am not sure AP wants to be relying on them, nonetheless if they held the balance of power, it is pretty obvious which way they would go.

R will without a doubt support a Labour-led coalition, although Støre would prefer not to be reliant on their votes. If such a scenario occurs, he will probably work heavily with KrF to avoid dependence on them. MDG has not commited to the left like R, but I have little doubt that they will end up supporting a left-wing coalition if they become king makers. But again, I think Støre will try quite hard to lure KrF instead. There is certainly movement of voters from Ap to MDG, but I think this is as much leftists who are disappointed with Støre's focus on the center than people who vote tactically. You are right that a clear commitment to the centre-left from MDG might convince more leftists to lend them a tactical vote, but so far it seems like they keep their mantra of not committing, which is used locally as well. Also, they are perhaps disappointed that Støre has already ruled them out as a coalition party.

The Centre Party has quite clearly rejected the overtures from KrF to join a centre-right government, so if the current four majority parties lose their majority, I think there is very little chance of a centre-right government.

So if a centre-right majority becomes mathematically impossible, would the KrF consider supporting a Labour led coalition in order to pull them towards the centre as opposed to having them pulled left.

My understanding is if the Liberals can crack the 4% and the Reds and MDG stay under 4% it's a toss up and could go either way.  But if the Liberals fall below 4% or either the R or MDG cracks it, then it pretty much guarantees a centre-left government.  Is this correct?

[mileslunn]

I'm surprised a party to the right of Progress on immigration/"cultural issues" hasn't taken off, considering FrP is one of the most "respectable" of the major populist right outfits

Not too familiar with how people in Norway view Trump, but could it be the Trump factor.  It seems ever since Trump was elected as well as Brexit it has somewhat diminished right wing populist parties.  Although granted that they were in government that attack might be less effective.

[mileslunn]

The newspaper VG quotes sources in Ap for saying that Støre's main strategy in the rest of the election will be attacking the government and Solberg in particular, based on Listhaug's journey to Sweden and her general behaviour as immigration minister. The sources say that they hope this will mobilize Ap doubters and convince potential switchers to SV/MDG by focusing on getting Frp out of the government offices, that it will weaken the picture of Erna Solberg as "Norway's Merkel" by continously branding her as "the only Western European PM to have taken a right populist party into government"* and that it will attract or at least de-mobilize KrF/Venstre voters, who don't like Frp. It is always hard to know how reliable such information is, and even if it is reliable, it might be changed a bit now that the information is out. But if there's any truth in it, I can only describe it as extremely brave to base the last part of the campaign on this. There is quite the risk that immigration-sceptic Ap or Sp voters will leave the ship. The fact that Venstre is hovering below the 4%-threshold makes the strategy more viable, but there have been polls during this campaign with centre-right majority despite Venstre being below the threshold.

* Lucky that the Norwegian election is held before the Austrian one

Seems somewhat risky, but perhaps comparing FrP to Donald Trump might be a strategy.  I believe Donald Trump is pretty reviled throughout Western Europe and I believe many in the FrP are supportive of him so that might be a strategy.  Bush was similarly hated in Western Europe and Schroeder came back in 2002 running on anti-Bush platform and likewise the PSOE pulled off a surprise victory for similar reason although the Madrid train attack probably tipped things there.

[mileslunn]

I noticed Wikipedia at least on the English site has no poll updates so does anyone here know if there have been further polls to show where the last minute breaks are going.  It looks like the centre-right has the momentum, but would be nice to see the numbers.

[mileslunn]

http://www.pollofpolls.no/?cmd=Stortinget

Thanks.  Looks like still a close race as Labour has recovered a bit and Hoyre is stalling but still could go either way.  Likely to be a lot closer than 2013 whomever comes out ahead.  Also What about Reds and MDG holding the balance of power as they are not part of either alliance but they could be in the balance of power.  I suspect they will support Labour though if they are in this scenario.

[mileslunn]

Is there still a good chance that Labour wins but can't form a coalition again?

Definitely although I think the 4% threshold is key here.  Both the Liberals and Christian Democrats are in danger of possibly missing it so if both miss it Labour wins, if one misses it likely Labour but still might work assuming the Reds and Greens don't break it.  If both Reds and Greens cross it or as a matter of fact just one likely Labour.  Now if both Christian Democrats and Liberals cross it but Greens and Reds miss it then what you are suggesting becomes far more likely.

[mileslunn]

Do any more polls come out or are we done?  If done then I will make my projection although it will be very vague as not as familiar with Norwegian politics as some here.

[mileslunn]

I don't think more polls will come now. Perhaps one or two tomorrow morning before the polls open.

Pollofpolls.no average

Ap 27,2 (48)   
Høyre 24,2 (42)
Frp 14,6 (28)
SV 5,9 (10)
Sp 10,1 (17)
KrF 4,5 (8 )
Venstre 4,2 (7)
MDG 4,0 (7)
Rødt 3,4 (2)
Andre 1,7 (0)

The narrowest majority possible for the current government with 85 seats.                            

Any history of one side being over or under represented.  Also what is the typical turnout amongst younger voters and is it like the English speaking countries where millennials tilt heavily to the left and older voters heavily to the right or less there less of an age gap like Germany.

My preliminary are 86 seats current government and 83 seats opposition but could really go either way.

Labour wins the popular vote, but gets a lower percentage than in 2013.  Both Christian Democrats and Liberals cross the 4% threshold while Greens are right on the line while Reds miss it.

[mileslunn]

What is the threshold?

It is 4%.  If Both KrF and V make the threshold the centre-right bloc should hold, if only one makes it, they might hold but will be very close.  If both miss it then the centre-left bloc will win.  That being said they can still win seats with less than that but only regional, they don't get any top up national ones.

[mileslunn]

Some ways lucky for the centre-right it is 4% instead of 3% or 5% as it 3% the Greens would likely cross it whereas it 5% both KrF and V would miss it and the reason I mention 5% is in both Germany and New Zealand that is what it is.

[mileslunn]

Oslo: 28.5% Ap, 26.7% H.

How does that compare to past elections and which party is that good for?

[mileslunn]

Where can I see the live results?

Here it is

https://www.valgresultat.no/?type=st&year=2017

[mileslunn]

Based on the current not final results it is 83-84 for the government but if you add the one Green and one Red that would give 85-84 for the opposition.  Is it a given the Greens and Reds will back Labour as I think philosophically they are closer to them or perhaps if the centre-right is no longer viable will the Christian Democrats then support Labour just to keep them in the middle.

[mileslunn]

Based on the current not final results it is 83-84 for the government but if you add the one Green and one Red that would give 85-84 for the opposition.  Is it a given the Greens and Reds will back Labour as I think philosophically they are closer to them or perhaps if the centre-right is no longer viable will the Christian Democrats then support Labour just to keep them in the middle.

We are at a point where it entirely depends upon V. If they break 4%, the government has a majority. If they don't, the opposition has a incredibly weak 85 seat majority.

Wouldn't Labour if V fails to crack the 4% be better to ask the Christian Democrats to join them than rely on the Reds and the Greens?  Off course if V cracks the 4% this becomes a mute point.

[mileslunn]

Huh, you're right.

These small changes are really weird to my Dutch eyes. And Ap being the Biggest Loser as opposition leaders is just embarrassing.

Not that I really want to defend Ap, but you could very well argue that at least some of this is a structural development. The general process of fragmentarization certainly seems to be happening in Norway as well with the three biggest parties declining. In fair proportional electoral systems, it will be hard to maintain huge uneven voter coalitions. For Social Democratic parties it is difficult to avoid this tendency as it is difficult to reconcile many different voter groups, particularly young well-educated voters with very left wing values on immigration, environment etc. and traditional working class voters with right wing values.

But Ap's campaign was certainly very poor, and it will be quite interesting how the post-mortem analysis will play out in the party. Will the internal criticism focus on the proposed tax increases, the attacks on Frp on immigration or their lack of a Green profile. What direction will a new leader choose on these subjects?

Were their proposed tax hikes for all brackets or just the rich.  I don't know about what the typical view is in Norway on taxes, but in the English speaking world tax hikes on the middle class is political suicide but tax hikes on the rich are very popular.  Here in Canada our PM won on promising a middle class tax cut and paying for it by hiking it on the rich.  Although with the gap between the rich and the poor smaller in Norway, not sure the soak the rich has the same currency as it does in the English speaking world.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the centre-right bloc will hang on albeit by a narrower margin.  Certainly it seems social democracy has been going through a rough period in much of Europe.  By contrast it seems in the English speaking world which embraced neoliberalism more is seeing social democrats do better.  They nearly won in Britain, could win in New Zealand in two weeks (albeit not guaranteed by any means), are leading in Australia (but still two years away), the next Democrat leader could very well be one (witness how well Sanders has done) while in Canada its a mixed bag, but unlike most other developed countries progressive parties are definitely in control of most of the political landscape and it seems running on a social democratic platform is a ticket to win in Canada while a ticket to lose in most of Europe.

[mileslunn]

So the left wing block actually gets more votes but loses the election?

This is a most unwelcome form of Américanisation in my opinion.

Also why, why have both Rodt ans Socialist Left?

Most countries with PR have minimum thresholds to keep out fringe parties.  In the last German election more Germans voted for parties on the right than left but because the AfD and FDP narrowly missed the 5% mark while the Greens and Die Linke made it, the Bundestag had more parties on left than right although since SPD wouldn't work with Die Linke, the CDU/CSU did manage to stay in power.  Labour could form government if they could convince either KrF or V to support them but that seems extremely unlikely.