Why are social conservatives doing so well among young voters (18-29)
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  Why are social conservatives doing so well among young voters (18-29)
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Author Topic: Why are social conservatives doing so well among young voters (18-29)  (Read 1593 times)
UWS
Junior Chimp
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« on: March 21, 2017, 09:38:05 PM »

According to most of exit polls, social and religious conservative Republican candidates like Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012 performed well among young voters, especially those between 18 and 29 years old.

Why are such candidates were able to do well among young voters while this group has usually this tendency of being more moderate than their parents (if I'm not wrong)?

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#SCREP

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#CAREP

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/il/

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/epolls/wi/
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Horus
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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2017, 12:11:54 AM »

Extremely religious Republicans are more likely to have tons of kids, maybe the young Republicans of the future, while fewer in number, will be more socon? I have my doubts though.
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Goldwater
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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2017, 12:17:45 AM »

My guess would be the tendency for younger voters to be more liberal and/or apolitical, meaning that ones who are both conservative enough and politically engaged enough to vote in Republican primaries will generally be of the religious right type.
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2017, 04:04:48 PM »

While the young generation is liberal on the issue of gay marriage, that is not true on the abortion issue, and especially not true among young Republicans on the abortion issue.  We are probably also more likely to view it as a top concern, I would think.  And, actually, in gubernatorial and senatorial races, social conservatives often do better than moderates with young voters (see: Joni Ernst vs. Scott Brown in 2014).
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Hydera
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2017, 05:19:45 PM »

While the young generation is liberal on the issue of gay marriage, that is not true on the abortion issue, and especially not true among young Republicans on the abortion issue.  We are probably also more likely to view it as a top concern, I would think.  And, actually, in gubernatorial and senatorial races, social conservatives often do better than moderates with young voters (see: Joni Ernst vs. Scott Brown in 2014).


OP was refering to Presidential GOP primary contenders.

Also consider that 12% of NH voters are white evangelicals while in iowa its 38%.
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Blackacre
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« Reply #5 on: March 22, 2017, 05:32:42 PM »

This is about the GOP primary, and I'd wager that the answer is pretty straightforward: Young Republicans are not moderates. Like, at all.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: March 22, 2017, 05:55:06 PM »

While the young generation is liberal on the issue of gay marriage, that is not true on the abortion issue, and especially not true among young Republicans on the abortion issue.  We are probably also more likely to view it as a top concern, I would think.  And, actually, in gubernatorial and senatorial races, social conservatives often do better than moderates with young voters (see: Joni Ernst vs. Scott Brown in 2014).


OP was refering to Presidential GOP primary contenders.

Also consider that 12% of NH voters are white evangelicals while in iowa its 38%.


The premise is largely true, though.  Everyone here is in denial about it, but social conservatives are presently winning in a rout on every major cultural issue except gay rights.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #7 on: March 22, 2017, 06:56:26 PM »

While the young generation is liberal on the issue of gay marriage, that is not true on the abortion issue, and especially not true among young Republicans on the abortion issue.  We are probably also more likely to view it as a top concern, I would think.  And, actually, in gubernatorial and senatorial races, social conservatives often do better than moderates with young voters (see: Joni Ernst vs. Scott Brown in 2014).


OP was refering to Presidential GOP primary contenders.

Also consider that 12% of NH voters are white evangelicals while in iowa its 38%.


The premise is largely true, though.  Everyone here is in denial about it, but social conservatives are presently winning in a rout on every major cultural issue except gay rights.

Not really.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #8 on: March 22, 2017, 07:40:05 PM »

While the young generation is liberal on the issue of gay marriage, that is not true on the abortion issue, and especially not true among young Republicans on the abortion issue.  We are probably also more likely to view it as a top concern, I would think.  And, actually, in gubernatorial and senatorial races, social conservatives often do better than moderates with young voters (see: Joni Ernst vs. Scott Brown in 2014).


OP was refering to Presidential GOP primary contenders.

Also consider that 12% of NH voters are white evangelicals while in iowa its 38%.



The premise is largely true, though.  Everyone here is in denial about it, but social conservatives are presently winning in a rout on every major cultural issue except gay rights.

How so?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2017, 07:46:58 PM »

The premise is largely true, though.  Everyone here is in denial about it, but social conservatives are presently winning in a rout on every major cultural issue except gay rights.

What issues, specifically?

For instance, here is abortion:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/183434/americans-choose-pro-choice-first-time-seven-years.aspx

Pro-lifers did make a comeback during the Obama years but now it seems to be settling back to majority pro-choice at least among 18 - 55 year olds.  Keeping in mind that even when pro-life became a majority opinion for just a little while, it wasn't by the huge margins pro-choice has seen as of late. ~10% was only seen for limited periods of time. Just making things even after so long is not what I would consider winning, let alone dominating.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2017, 08:02:45 PM »

The premise is largely true, though.  Everyone here is in denial about it, but social conservatives are presently winning in a rout on every major cultural issue except gay rights.

What issues, specifically?

For instance, here is abortion:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/183434/americans-choose-pro-choice-first-time-seven-years.aspx

Pro-lifers did make a comeback during the Obama years but now it seems to be settling back to majority pro-choice at least among 18 - 55 year olds.  Keeping in mind that even when pro-life became a majority opinion for just a little while, it wasn't by the huge margins pro-choice has seen as of late. ~10% was only seen for limited periods of time. Just making things even after so long is not what I would consider winning, let alone dominating.


Even if Skill and Chance was referring to the Anti-PC/SJW crowd, they're usually not social conservatives. In fact a lot of YouTube channels that currently cater to the anti-PC crowd are or were former secular and atheist channels.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2017, 08:20:19 PM »

The premise is largely true, though.  Everyone here is in denial about it, but social conservatives are presently winning in a rout on every major cultural issue except gay rights.

What issues, specifically?

For instance, here is abortion:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx
http://www.gallup.com/poll/183434/americans-choose-pro-choice-first-time-seven-years.aspx

Pro-lifers did make a comeback during the Obama years but now it seems to be settling back to majority pro-choice at least among 18 - 55 year olds.  Keeping in mind that even when pro-life became a majority opinion for just a little while, it wasn't by the huge margins pro-choice has seen as of late. ~10% was only seen for limited periods of time. Just making things even after so long is not what I would consider winning, let alone dominating.


Even if Skill and Chance was referring to the Anti-PC/SJW crowd, they're usually not social conservatives. In fact a lot of YouTube channels that currently cater to the anti-PC crowd are or were former secular and atheist channels.

Yeah. A good portion of these young alt-rights are pro-choice, pro-ssm, and anti-prohibition. Just look at all the bruhaha with Alt-Right Barbie. Its just a high-profile anecdote, but it would explain why pro-choice does much better in polls and referendums than most Democrats do.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2017, 05:59:03 AM »

My guess would be the tendency for younger voters to be more liberal and/or apolitical, meaning that ones who are both conservative enough and politically engaged enough to vote in Republican primaries will generally be of the religious right type.

Pretty much this. GOP primary voters are a very narrow subset of the population, which allows for some exceptional results. The guy who doesn't care about abortion, but wants to keep his taxes low probably doesn't start voting in primaries until his 30's or 40's.
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Roronoa D. Law
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« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2017, 03:51:00 PM »

I think its because most young people are not politically involve or lack interest. The ones who are involve at such a young age are usually more conservative or liberal the others. Which probably explain why the are more likely to vote third party as a protest vote.
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