Impact of AHCA on 2018 midterms?

[McGovernForPrez]

Saw this interesting article on 538 that broke down Ryancare support by house district. If these are remotely accurate what do you think the impact of this bill might be on 2018 races, or even some of the competitive special elections like Montana and Georgia. According to the article it's underwater in both districts. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gop-health-care-bill-is-unpopular-even-in-republican-districts/

[Hindsight was 2020]

It will spearhead the backlash in all likelyhood

[Green Line]

It's too soon to say.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Made a map of overall approval. Yeesh.

[McGovernForPrez]

I think even that map underestimates it's unpopularity. A lot of those green states in the middle are the ones that are hurt most by the AHCA so if it passes those areas will probably turn on them too.

[GlobeSoc]

Made a map of overall approval. Yeesh.

If that map is accurate the swing will be gigantic, to the point of wwc being competitive and all the battlegrounds being gone for the GOP

[Holmes]

lol, ID-01, AZ-04 and WY-AL would be the only western districts to support this trash.

[Virginiá]

One thing to take into account is that for as unpopular as it is now, this is before it has gone into affect and has begun changing people's lives (for the worse). Once people start losing insurance or paying more money for healthcare-related stuff, opinions will change further. If the estimates are true, I think it could be pretty bad news for Republicans, and probably enough to put the House in play. There will be no passing the buck on this either.

Considering the next 2 elections will have a substantial effect on the next round of redistricting, they are playing a very, very risky game here. This bill will only help set Democrats up for a favorable round of redistricting in 2021-2022, and no doubt will be looked at as one of, if not the biggest strategic blunder(s) of the GOP for the entire decade.

[McGovernForPrez]

One thing to take into account is that for as unpopular as it is now, this is before it has gone into affect and has begun changing people's lives (for the worse). Once people start losing insurance or paying more money for healthcare-related stuff, opinions will change further. If the estimates are true, I think it could be pretty bad news for Republicans, and probably enough to put the House in play. There will be no passing the buck on this either.

Considering the next 2 elections will have a substantial effect on the next round of redistricting, they are playing a very, very risky game here. This bill will only help set Democrats up for a favorable round of redistricting in 2021-2022, and no doubt will be looked at as one of, if not the biggest strategic blunder(s) of the GOP for the entire decade.

I feel this was bound to happen eventually. Trump's friction with the Republican party was bound to tear apart at some point. He promised something better than Obamacare in every way and his voters believed him. What he asked for was basically impossible under any Republican healthcare framework. I think this is the general tune we'll see for the next four years too. Trump isn't gonna get along well with a Republican congress, and things are gonna slow down as a result.

[SCNCmod]

Made a map of overall approval. Yeesh.

Great Job on this map... it is extremely helpful seeing a map vs chart.  

Considering midterms have such low turnout, and outcomes are often decided by motivated voters... If you ever get a chance...

I would be interested in a map that showed (Strong Support vs Strong Opposed numbers)... which seem to be different in many cases than (Overall Support vs Overall Opposed) ... for instance- every district in Alabama has more strong opposed than strong support (with 1 exception...1 district is tied)

[SCNCmod]

If AHCA is the biggest issue in 2018... This issue specifically isn't good for:

Dean Heller (NV)
Jeff Flake (AZ)
Ted Cruz (TX)
Roger Wicker (MS)
Orrin Hatch (UT)... If a potential Strong Primary Challenge


Then if you look at Strong Support/ Strong Opposed ..Considering Motivated Voters have more power in low turnout mid-terms...you even have:

Roger Wicker (MS)
MS1 (Strong Support: 14% .. Strong Oppose: 27) -13
MS2 (Strong Support:  8% ... Strong Oppose: 47) -39
MS3 (Strong Support: 13% .. Strong Oppose: 30) -17
MS4 (Strong Support: 15% .. Strong Oppose: 24)  -9

Luther Strange (AL)
AL1 (Strong Support: 14% .. Strong Oppose: 28) -14
AL2 (Strong Support: 14% .. Strong Oppose: 27) -13
AL3 (Strong Support: 14% .. Strong Oppose: 27) -13
AL4 (Strong Support: 17% .. Strong Oppose: 17)  tie
AL5 (Strong Support: 14% .. Strong Oppose: 27) -13
AL6 (Strong Support: 15% .. Strong Oppose: 23)  -8
AL7 (Strong Support: 07% .. Strong Oppose: 52) -45

[Virginiá]

Here is an ad the DSCC cut that basically shows what Republicans can expect to face if they pass this bill:

http://fightwealthcare.com/

I'm still having trouble understanding why on earth they are still trying to pass this bill knowing what it will do. There is little doubt now that if this passes and they don't find a way to fix it very soon after, AHCA will strip insurance from tens of millions and raise premiums / cause hospital closures, and the real world effects will be dramatic on many people. This will devastate them in 2018 and 2020 if all of that really does happen.

In fact, even if it doesn't pass, if Republicans continue to indicate they will push for reform, Democrats might still be able to hit them on this issue, albeit in different, less powerful ways.

Also lol @ "Wealthcare"

[MAINEiac4434]

You think Obamacare was a weight around the necks of Dems in 2010, you ain't seen nothing yet.

[Maxwell]

2018 won't be another 2010, that's all I'm going to say.

it doesn't need to be a 2010 for Republicans to lose the House, that's all i'm going to say.

[Virginiá]

2018 won't be another 2010, that's all I'm going to say.

Well of course it's basically impossible right now for Democrats to win the kind of seats Republicans did in 2010 (in either chamber), but this bill is exactly the kind of thing Democrats need to generate a backlash to take back the House - even if only by a slim majority, which is definitely possible under the right conditions.

It's not all federal, either. Republicans have a lot to lose at the state level.

[Blackacre]

If it fails, the GOP should be a little worried, but they can sweep it under the rug.

If it passes, the GOP is absolutely screwed

[Pericles]

If Trumpcare is not dropped by the GOP, the GOP will lose big in 2018 and the House will be lost. Obamacare and Hillarycare lost the Democrats the House in 1994 and 2010, and both were far less unpopular than Trumpcare. According to Quinnipac, only 17% support the bill and most polls have support for it in the low 30s(538's average gives Trumpcare 32% support). The bill's supporters are far less enthusiastic than its opponents, only 17% of Trump voters strongly support Trumpcare while 78% of Hillary Clinton voters strongly oppose it. The energy is all on the opposition side. In 2018 alone 14 million people will lose insurance. Trumpcare, as well as an act of cruelty and an attack on millions of Americans, is an act of political self-destruction.

[Skill and Chance]

2018 won't be another 2010, that's all I'm going to say.

Well of course it's basically impossible right now for Democrats to win the kind of seats Republicans did in 2010 (in either chamber), but this bill is exactly the kind of thing Democrats need to generate a backlash to take back the House - even if only by a slim majority, which is definitely possible under the right conditions.

It's not all federal, either. Republicans have a lot to lose at the state level.

Oh, I definitely agree with this. I doubt this bill will pass, though. But of course I'm worried about this issue.

If everyone here is right and 2018 turns out to be a Democratic wipeout, it will be interesting to see if Trump moves to the "center" like Clinton did after 1994. Obama managed to win reelection in 2012 as well, so I wouldn't say Trump is doomed if Republicans lose in 2018.

I agree with this.  Trump seems like he could pull off a Republican version of Bill Clinton's shift on economic issues quite well, e.g. "the era of small government is over" and his base would probably love him for doing it.

Trump will have the hardest time in 2020 if Republicans still control everything.

Although I think the condition for the House narrowly flipping is closer to "generic midterm" than "Democratic wipeout."

[BuckeyeNut]

Made a map of overall approval. Yeesh.

What does yellow specifically signify?

Also worth noting even in green districts, you have Republican Representatives who think the bill doesn't go far enough. As is the case with two of the green districts in Ohio. I'm very unsure this will pass, in which case, the bill won't matter come November 2018.

[Young Conservative]

A lot of Republicans oppose it from the right (including myself), but it doesn't mean we won't still support our home candidates if they are sufficiently conservative.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Made a map of overall approval. Yeesh.

What does yellow specifically signify?

Also worth noting even in green districts, you have Republican Representatives who think the bill doesn't go far enough. As is the case with two of the green districts in Ohio. I'm very unsure this will pass, in which case, the bill won't matter come November 2018.

Tied approval.

[

Great Job on this map... it is extremely helpful seeing a map vs chart.  

Considering midterms have such low turnout, and outcomes are often decided by motivated voters... If you ever get a chance...

I would be interested in a map that showed (Strong Support vs Strong Opposed numbers)... which seem to be different in many cases than (Overall Support vs Overall Opposed) ... for instance- every district in Alabama has more strong opposed than strong support (with 1 exception...1 district is tied)

Thanks!

No point in making a map... just went through and a solid zero have Strong Support > Strong Opposed. Only AL-04 and TX-13 have it tied, and those two are probably the most Republican districts in the nation.

[windjammer]

2018 won't be another 2010, that's all I'm going to say.

Well of course it's basically impossible right now for Democrats to win the kind of seats Republicans did in 2010 (in either chamber), but this bill is exactly the kind of thing Democrats need to generate a backlash to take back the House - even if only by a slim majority, which is definitely possible under the right conditions.

It's not all federal, either. Republicans have a lot to lose at the state level.

Oh, I definitely agree with this. I doubt this bill will pass, though. But of course I'm worried about this issue.

If everyone here is right and 2018 turns out to be a Democratic wipeout, it will be interesting to see if Trump moves to the "center" like Clinton did after 1994. Obama managed to win reelection in 2012 as well, so I wouldn't say Trump is doomed if Republicans lose in 2018.

It would be truly interesting to see how Trump would have to governed with a congress partially controlled by democrats.

[smoltchanov]

2018 won't be another 2010, that's all I'm going to say.

Well of course it's basically impossible right now for Democrats to win the kind of seats Republicans did in 2010 (in either chamber), but this bill is exactly the kind of thing Democrats need to generate a backlash to take back the House - even if only by a slim majority, which is definitely possible under the right conditions.

It's not all federal, either. Republicans have a lot to lose at the state level.

Oh, I definitely agree with this. I doubt this bill will pass, though. But of course I'm worried about this issue.

If everyone here is right and 2018 turns out to be a Democratic wipeout, it will be interesting to see if Trump moves to the "center" like Clinton did after 1994. Obama managed to win reelection in 2012 as well, so I wouldn't say Trump is doomed if Republicans lose in 2018.

It would be truly interesting to see how Trump would have to governed with a congress partially controlled by democrats.

May be - after 2018...

[McGovernForPrez]

A lot of Republicans oppose it from the right (including myself), but it doesn't mean we won't still support our home candidates if they are sufficiently conservative.

The result of Republicans dropping Obamacare as in issue will be huge. It's what has been driving Republican turnout in midterms for the past 8 years. If Republicans vote no today I think we can expect significantly depressed turnout from the base in 2018. It's really a damned if you do damned if you don't scenario.

[Figueira]

This probably depends a bit on who votes for/against it.