Could Democrats rebound in West Virginia?

[Thunderbird is the word]

I know it's conventional wisdom that West Virginia is a lost cause for Democrats but even so I wonder if Trump overpeeformed there given his stance on coal compared to Hillary's. I do wonder though if his having overpromised on the issue combined with a lot of the states residents losing health insurance could at the very least lead to Democrats narrowing the gap in 2020 combined with a few of there congressional seats coming up for grabs. Thoughts?

[pbrower2a]

It will be tough -- or it will seem like a surprise. The core of Democratic voting in West Virginia was unionized miners and workers in the chemical and glass industries. The coal jobs aren't returning.

West Virginia, even when it was a strong-union state, was culturally conservative. Nixon did better in West Virginia than nationwide, suggesting that McGovern was a horrible match for West Virginia culture. 

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... 2020 would require some incredibly pronouced population shift (i.e. multiple Fortune 500 tech companies relocating there to become better connected with rural America).  There are, however, plausible scenarios where it turns back into a 55/45 R state by 2030ish, particularly if the Democrats go full Bernie.  But beyond reelecting Manchin, I highly, highly doubt any federal offices are in play for Democrats in the next couple decades.  And it's hard to see it voting Dem in a presidential election for the next 50 years to be honest.

[Figueira]

If "rebound" means get a higher percentage than a previous election, then yes, it's possible.

[Beet]

Only if they come up with something that appeals to the people there as much as coal does-- you are trying to run in Michigan when your platform call for he end of the auto industry and its replacement with teleporters.

[AtorBoltox]

No. What is with this forum's obsession with West Virginia? It's an ultra safe Republican state at the the Presidential level and will be for the next several decades at least.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

No. What is with this forum's obsession with West Virginia? It's an ultra safe Republican state at the the Presidential level and will be for the next several decades at least.

It's not as ultra safe Republican as Vermont was before 1964, having never voted Democrat for President or US Senator.

[DPKdebator]

No. What is with this forum's obsession with West Virginia? It's an ultra safe Republican state at the the Presidential level and will be for the next several decades at least.

It's not as ultra safe Republican as Vermont was before 1964, having never voted Democrat for President or US Senator.

West Virginia is more friendly to Democrats on the state level, but at the presidential level it's gone. In 2016, it was the second-most Republican state in the country after Wyoming. It already had a large R margin in 2012, but still managed to swing 15% R in 2016 (fourth heaviest swing overall in 2016).

[hopper]

No not in the near term at the Presidential Level can the Dems have a shot at winning the state I don't see that happening. At the state level they are pretty competitive though still.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not worth trying Hindsight 2020 Cory Booker-Tulsi Gabbard-4-Prez

Cory Booker/Tulsi Gabbard
 266
Trump/Pence
 235

[CapoteMonster]

State level they can definitely rebound.

[peterthlee]

Not worth trying Hindsight 2020 Cory Booker-Tulsi Gabbard-4-Prez

Cory Booker/Tulsi Gabbard
 266
Trump/Pence
 235

In this scenario, Florida is enough to flip back to Dems' hands.

[RINO Tom]

WV is not a lost cause...it had the lowest turnout in 2016 of all the states

Someone posted a very interesting article about Appalachia one time, effectively disproving the notion that poorer people (who used to vote Democratic) are ALL jumping ship to the GOP, pointing out that many of them actually stopped voting.  Wish I could find it.  I bet if you looked at the WV turnout maps from 2008, 2012 and 2016, turnout was probably down in traditionally Democratic areas.

[MT Treasurer]

Can Republicans rebound in Virginia?

Different question, same answer.

[Goldwater]

Can Republicans rebound in Virginia?

Different question, same answer.

Yes?

[White Trash]

WV is not a lost cause...it had the lowest turnout in 2016 of all the states

Someone posted a very interesting article about Appalachia one time, effectively disproving the notion that poorer people (who used to vote Democratic) are ALL jumping ship to the GOP, pointing out that many of them actually stopped voting.  Wish I could find it.  I bet if you looked at the WV turnout maps from 2008, 2012 and 2016, turnout was probably down in traditionally Democratic areas.

I'd be really interested in reading that sometime.

[MT Treasurer]

Can Republicans rebound in Virginia?

Different question, same answer.

Yes?

Highly unlikely, given the direction both parties seem to be going in.

[RINO Tom]

Can Republicans rebound in Virginia?

Different question, same answer.

Yes?

Highly unlikely, given the direction both parties seem to be going in.

That's hardly clear over the next three to four decades.

[MT Treasurer]

Can Republicans rebound in Virginia?

Different question, same answer.

Yes?

Highly unlikely, given the direction both parties seem to be going in.

That's hardly clear over the next three to four decades.

Well, that's true, but the question wasn't "Will the Democrats "ever" rebound in the state". I think even if that happens, WV and VA are too far gone to be competitive in the next decades or so. Those NoVA suburbs aren't your typical suburbs, they're very inelastic and only getting more Democratic. It's only going to get worse for the WV Dems and the VA GOP IMO, but they may have some success in gubernatorial races when their party is out of power. But not at the presidential level.

[BaldEagle1991]

No. What is with this forum's obsession with West Virginia? It's an ultra safe Republican state at the the Presidential level and will be for the next several decades at least.

It's not as ultra safe Republican as Vermont was before 1964, having never voted Democrat for President or US Senator.

So was much of Texas and the Deep South, but you don't see people talking about them as much as WV.

[RINO Tom]

No. What is with this forum's obsession with West Virginia? It's an ultra safe Republican state at the the Presidential level and will be for the next several decades at least.

It's not as ultra safe Republican as Vermont was before 1964, having never voted Democrat for President or US Senator.

So was much of Texas and the Deep South, but you don't see people talking about them as much as WV.

Slight tangent here, but whenever you have near one party rule in a region (e.g., the Democrats in the South or Republicans in Vermont), you are going to - almost by necessity - have a wide range of ideologies represented in that party.  Despite my distaste for the incredibly lazy historical narrative that the old Southern Democrats were "conservatives" (it amazes me that an intelligent Atlas poster can make that simplistic of a claim), there certainly were more conservative factions and a few very conservative Democrats in the Southern caucus.  From my understanding of history, Texas' Democratic Party was much more conservative than other states', especially once the state started to grow in population, become less agrarian and attract transplants (the Democrats in power had to move to the right to stay in power the more Northern Republicans moved in, right?) ... that was never the case in West Virginia.  Though its Democrats might seem culturally conservative to the Democratic Party of 2017, it simply wasn't a big deal to the DNC in the '70s, '80s and '90s, making WV right at home with the Democrats and as at home as any other blue state of the time.  Despite whatever their views on the environment or gay rights, WV Dems were steadfast supporters of the party's economic agenda, and they were maybe the most liable of any state in the nation to send two Senators to DC who'd vote for Democratic leadership.  The registration advantage Democrats enjoy there is still staggering.  And, while electing Trump with almost 70% of the vote, WV put a Democrat in the governor's office ... that is why it gets more attention than other Southern states: because WV isn't some state that was ancestrally Democratic and had enough Dixiecrats die off to finally swing to the GOP ... it was a solidly Democratic state as late as the late '90s, and its transformation has been, frankly, astounding.  Even if you think it will never, ever flip back, a state that could swing so wildly and so quickly one way could, in theory, do the same back eventually (and is at least much more likely to do so than a state like Alabama that made such a slow switch to the GOP and would likely require a very slow shift back).

[Young Moderate Republican]

No. What is with this forum's obsession with West Virginia? It's an ultra safe Republican state at the the Presidential level and will be for the next several decades at least.

It's not as ultra safe Republican as Vermont was before 1964, having never voted Democrat for President or US Senator.

So was much of Texas and the Deep South, but you don't see people talking about them as much as WV.

Slight tangent here, but whenever you have near one party rule in a region (e.g., the Democrats in the South or Republicans in Vermont), you are going to - almost by necessity - have a wide range of ideologies represented in that party.  Despite my distaste for the incredibly lazy historical narrative that the old Southern Democrats were "conservatives" (it amazes me that an intelligent Atlas poster can make that simplistic of a claim), there certainly were more conservative factions and a few very conservative Democrats in the Southern caucus.  From my understanding of history, Texas' Democratic Party was much more conservative than other states', especially once the state started to grow in population, become less agrarian and attract transplants (the Democrats in power had to move to the right to stay in power the more Northern Republicans moved in, right?) ... that was never the case in West Virginia.  Though its Democrats might seem culturally conservative to the Democratic Party of 2017, it simply wasn't a big deal to the DNC in the '70s, '80s and '90s, making WV right at home with the Democrats and as at home as any other blue state of the time.  Despite whatever their views on the environment or gay rights, WV Dems were steadfast supporters of the party's economic agenda, and they were maybe the most liable of any state in the nation to send two Senators to DC who'd vote for Democratic leadership.  The registration advantage Democrats enjoy there is still staggering.  And, while electing Trump with almost 70% of the vote, WV put a Democrat in the governor's office ... that is why it gets more attention than other Southern states: because WV isn't some state that was ancestrally Democratic and had enough Dixiecrats die off to finally swing to the GOP ... it was a solidly Democratic state as late as the late '90s, and its transformation has been, frankly, astounding.  Even if you think it will never, ever flip back, a state that could swing so wildly and so quickly one way could, in theory, do the same back eventually (and is at least much more likely to do so than a state like Alabama that made such a slow switch to the GOP and would likely require a very slow shift back).

This is true. Our Democrats were generally much more conservative than Democrats in most other states. Many of our most extreme Republican politicians are former Democrats, chief among which was Rick Perry. Yes, that Rick Perry supported Al Gore's initial 1988 presidential bid. John Connally defected from the Democratic party during the Nixon days, Phil Gramm became a Republican, our Democratic governor in the 1950s (Alan Shivers) delivered our electoral votes to Republican Dwight Eisenhower. Texas was also one of the first southern states to begin it's shift to the GOP. I'm not sure about the northern expats though. That seems to be a much more recent development. Most of our expats are Californians these days.. half of my own family included.

[TML]

Remember that the Democrats were completely shut out in Nevada from 1980-1988. Back then, how many people thought the Democrats could make a comeback there?

In terms of WV, I think that if the Democrats move away from the Clinton brand of neoliberalism, then they could at least reverse their declining trend in this state. This is a state in which many of its residents could benefit from some of the Democrats' core policy proposals (e.g. higher minimum wage, expanded health care, etc.). If the Democrats are able to effectively pitch these policy proposals to WV residents, they can certainly start gaining ground again there.