VA Governor 2017- Gravis Marketing Gillespie Leads Northam, not Perriello

[mds32]

Gravis Marketing

Governor:
Gillespie 42%
Northam 40%

Perriello 42%
Gillespie 41%

Lt. Governor:
Fairfax (D) 40%
Vogel (R) 37%

Fairfax (D) 41%
Reeves (R) 35%

Fairfax (D) 42%
Davis (R) 35%

Ban on Conversion Therapy:
71%-13% Favor making it illegal

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-virginia-polling-2017-gravis-marketing/

[MT Treasurer]

Wow. The Democrat will win obviously, but any poll showing a Republican ahead in VA of all places is pretty hilarious.

[The Other Castro]

Wow. The Democrat will win obviously, but any poll showing a Republican ahead in VA of all places is pretty hilarious.

It's Gravis so eh

[Skye]

Wow. The Democrat will win obviously, but any poll showing a Republican ahead in VA of all places is pretty hilarious.

Are we seriously going to keep acting like states that were ~5 points for the opposing party are unwinnable?

You must be new to this place.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wow. The Democrat will win obviously, but any poll showing a Republican ahead in VA of all places is pretty hilarious.

Are we seriously going to keep acting like states that were ~5 points for the opposing party are unwinnable?

And are we seriously going to keep forgetting that Gillespie was the guy who was supposed to be declared a loser the moment the polls closed in VA, yet came within recount-eligible range? This race is a Toss-Up, period.

[MT Treasurer]

Wow. The Democrat will win obviously, but any poll showing a Republican ahead in VA of all places is pretty hilarious.

Are we seriously going to keep acting like states that were ~5 points for the opposing party are unwinnable?

Meh, Republicans usually don't win statewide races in VA. It's an inelastic anti-Trump blue state where any Democrat should easily win a gubernatorial race, especially with Trump's approvals in the dumpster (and no, I am not saying that Gillespie would have had a shot had Clinton been elected - VA is a big pro-Clinton state).

[Skill and Chance]

Wow. The Democrat will win obviously, but any poll showing a Republican ahead in VA of all places is pretty hilarious.

Are we seriously going to keep acting like states that were ~5 points for the opposing party are unwinnable?

Meh, Republicans usually don't win statewide races in VA. It's an inelastic anti-Trump blue state where any Democrat should easily win a gubernatorial race, especially with Trump's approvals in the dumpster (and no, I am not saying that Gillespie would have had a shot had Clinton been elected - VA is a big pro-Clinton state).

I don't quite get this attitude.  I think the Dem nominee wins by 2.5-5 at the end of the day (Perriello has more upside than Northam, but he could also blow it), but with Virginia's contrarian history and Republicans controlling everything federally, that's hardly a Safe D state.  Really, if you want to claim that any 2X Bush state is off the table for Republicans going forward, it should be CO. 

1. Clinton's VP wasn't from there
2. Trump had the best performance in rural CO relative to his national margin since before the New Deal and still barely improved on Romney statewide. 
3. The Denver area is going to be a lot more comfortable with the Bernie wing of the Dems gaining influence than Fairfax and Loudoun counties ever would be.

So really I don't get the VA and NH stuff after last year's results.  Clinton was supposed to win them by 10ish.

On another note, it's interesting that Justin Fairfax is uniformly outrunning the top of the ticket for LG.  That LG seat could be very important come 2021 as the state senate is up in 2019 and Democrats only need to pick up one seat to flip the chamber and block a GOP redistricting plan if they hold LG, even if Gillespie is governor.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Great numbers for Flawless Beautiful Tom!

[mds32]

I actually think it truly depends who wins the Democratic Primary. If Northam wins I think this race tilts towards Gillespie. If Perriello wins I'd say Likely Perriello. Northam is just an underwhelming candidate who got lucky in 2013 tbh.

[mds32]

I actually think it truly depends who wins the Democratic Primary. If Northam wins I think this race tilts towards Gillespie. If Perriello wins I'd say Likely Perriello. Northam is just an underwhelming candidate who got lucky in 2013 tbh.

Northam is pretty popular on the Eastern Shore, which if he won that area (Chesapeake + Virginia Beach), it would seal off any path to victory for R's statewide.

Not if Gillespie is winning Loudon and cracking 40% in the rest of NOVA.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gillespie showed he could make inroads in NoVA last time. He won Loudoun. He only lost PW by 2. If the republican party had been aware the race was competitive (Remember it was supposed to be a miracle if Gillespie even came within 12 points), there's no reason he couldn't have gotten a few extra votes somewhere and won.

[Deblano]

I actually think it truly depends who wins the Democratic Primary. If Northam wins I think this race tilts towards Gillespie. If Perriello wins I'd say Likely Perriello. Northam is just an underwhelming candidate who got lucky in 2013 tbh.

Northam at least has quite a bit of charm IMO. He's certainly not as "feisty" as Perriello, but he's not like Clinton.

[Skill and Chance]

Anyone else find it surprising that the Dem LG candidate consistently has a bigger lead?

[Gass3268]

Gillespie showed he could make inroads in NoVA last time. He won Loudoun. He only lost PW by 2. If the republican party had been aware the race was competitive (Remember it was supposed to be a miracle if Gillespie even came within 12 points), there's no reason he couldn't have gotten a few extra votes somewhere and won.

Trump wasn't President in 2014, which will be the only thing that matters in 2017 and 2018. This is Likely D regardless of the candidate.

[Holmes]

Wow, a Republican getting >40% of the vote in NoVA in the age of Trump. That's some fantasy.

[Ebsy]

Gravis is back to torment us I see.