2008 - A Democrat Trump?

[Maxwell]

Obama and Clinton not to enter the 2008 field, Kerry riding high in the polls



June 2007 RCP Average
18.3% Kerry
12.2% Edwards
9.4% Bayh
8.2% Warner
6.2% Richardson
4.1% Biden
3.4% Vilsack
3.2% Kucinich
2.1% Dodd
0.8% Gravel

Recent announcements by Democratic heavyweights Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have sent shock waves through the 2008 Democratic field. Both candidates announced within the last few weeks that they would not run for President of the United States. Obama, eyeing the Illinois Governorship in 2010, is someone that has been public about ambition, but has denied that that interest is toward the Presidency right away in 2008, with most saying he is looking towards 2016 or even 2020 after a few years as Illinois' governor. Clinton had looked at the option of running for President but concluded that she was better served fighting for her constituents in New York.

This leaves us with a Democratic field that most would sum up as heavy in numbers but light in talent. Former Nominee John Kerry made a recent jump into the race, having already taken a lead in the polls and a large cash advantage. Running behind him are John Edwards and Evan Bayh, Edwards being Kerry's ex-running mate and showing little deference to Kerry, and Bayh the Indiana moderate who is showing Democrats how to win in a Bush environment that Kerry was not successful in dislodging in 2004. Another middle tier candidate is another moderate - Mark Warner of Virginia.

Many are looking at this field and wondering how can Democrats get less enthusiastic for 2008. Is there anybody who could shake this field up?

On July 13th, 2007, one last potential candidate let know that he could fill the vacuum.



Interviewer: "He's the president of the United States!"

Sharpton: "He's a war criminal! And any responsible congress would've impeached this President and locked him up already.

The clip went viral with many Democrats criticizing Sharpton's remarks. This is after Sharpton's appearance on Meet the Press, where he began to speculate running for President. This clip gave Sharpton the perfect springboard to announce his candidacy...

[NHI]

Awesomeness!! Looking forward to it

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Oh hell.

[Maxwell]

Sharpton Rises



RCP Democrat Average - August 2007
26.4% Sharpton
9.1% Kerry
8.9% Kucinich
6.8% Edwards
6.1% Bayh
5.9% Warner
4.5% Biden
4.2% Richardson
2.1% Vilsack
1.1% Dodd
0.2% Gravel

In 2004, Sharpton ran as a candidate with an individualistic message but ultimately didn't stand as a competitive candidate. His campaign was generally supportive of others on the trail. The Al Sharpton of the 2008 campaign was quite a bit different - Sharpton's opening salvo proved combative -

"If the Democrats don't support the people who vote for them then what's the point! I stand in contrast with Wind Surfing John Kerry, whose campaign couldn't even stand up to the scrutiny! Folks, we have to wake up. Black people aren't going to take this much longer!"

"There's no better ambien than hearing Senator Kerry talk about anything."

"When have these Senators ever VOTED THE RIGHT WAY to stop this President?! Kerry, Edwards, Bayh, the rest of em, all voted the wrong way, and yeah, they had their white person apologies, so what, they stood the wrong way at the wrong time."

"President Bush is an international embarrassment, and if he's not impeached, I will use the forces of the U.S. Attorney Generals office to LOCK HIM UP (the crowd begins to chant)"

Sharpton's comments took a major hit to his general favorable ratings in the public eye - the only major candidate with negative ratings - but Sharpton's comments also found a base among Democratic voters. His debate performances were light on substance beyond his major talking points, but he got points for being combative with moderators viewed as milquetoast, got points for attacking Kerry, who many view as a has been who is taking the nomination for granted since he had it last time. As a result of this, Sharpton's numbers rose to the top, and have largely stayed there since the beginning. Media commentators, however, are noting how low Sharpton's ceiling is - he's not hit above 30 in any poll. Some say that once the field dwindles, so will Sharpton's chances at the nomination.

The second story is the rise of Dennis Kucinich, the far left candidate now challenging the hegemony of Sharpton on the left. Kucinich's platform of universal healthcare has seen his numbers quadruple in the last few weeks, and Kucinich is making it known that he won't be left unheard.

As the other candidates in this race huddle around similar single digit numbers, the other big story is the halving of Kerry's numbers. Kerry, originally the frontrunner in this race, has seen a massive drop off since beginning this campaign. Kerry has been seen as complacent, unwilling to address the flaws of his 2004 campaign, and downright boring in his presentation of the case for his candidacy. Folks are not seeing a reason for Kerry 2008 despite Kerry's massive spending in this campaign.