If you were told the 2020 Dem nominee was NOT one of these 8, then who??

[Blue3]

If you were told by someone from the future that the 2020 Democratic Party nominee was NOT one of these 8 potential candidates (who might or might not have even ended up running):

-Elizabeth Warren
-Bernie Sanders
-Joe Biden
-Kirsten Gillibrand
-Kamala Harris
-Corey Booker
-Sherrod Brown
-Al Franken

...then who would you think the Democratic nominee actually was?

[The Other Castro]

Andrew Cuomo.

[Mr. Morden]

If you were told by someone from the future that the 2020 Democratic Party nominee was NOT one of these 8 potential candidates (who might or might not have even ended up running):

-Elizabeth Warren
-Bernie Sanders
-Joe Biden
-Kirsten Gillibrand
-Kamala Harris
-Corey Booker
-Sherrod Brown
-Al Franken

...then who would you think the Democratic nominee actually was?

Honestly, at this point, probably one of Castro, Cuomo, or O’Malley.  I’m not terribly impressed by any of them, but they all appear to be high on the list of who is most likely to run, so maybe one of them will unexpectedly break out, as the rest of the field implodes.  Pretty unlikely, sure, but if you’re taking out all of the aforementioned 8 people, then we’re left with folks who individually have no more than a ~3% or so chance of winning the nomination, so it could be almost anyone.  What’s holding others back is likelihood of running in the first place.  E.g., if Bullock does a bit more to convince me that he’s a likely candidate, then I’d say him.

EDIT: Or maybe Klobuchar, since if someone from the future told me that Franken was not the nominee, then I guess that makes it more likely that he doesn't end up running, which probably makes it more likely that Klobuchar does.

Klobuchar's kind of a strange one, because she seemed to be doing more to indicate presidential interest *before* the 2016 general election, as in, before it even became clear that 2020 would be an open contest on the Democratic side.  Since the election, she's kept a lower profile.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

What about Jeff Merkley?

[heatcharger]

Jason Kander.

[Blue3]

Jason Kander.

You really think he would rise than far in 4 years, with hardly any name recognition and no elected office?

[McGovernForPrez]

Steve Bullock hands down. He's a dark horse candidate that could have large appeal in 2020.

[heatcharger]

Jason Kander.

You really think he would rise than far in 4 years, with hardly any name recognition and no elected office?

If all those A-listers you mentioned were not to become the Democratic nominee, then I believe someone as young and charismatic as Obama could mount a significant run even if they don't have high name recognition prior to the race.

[houseonaboat]

This is a good thread.

I'll throw in Martin Heinrich. Western (but not Californian) candidate, young, with cross-party appeal, and a fresh face for the party. Also unlike other names (Bullock, Jason Kander, Castro), he can actually raise money and unlike Cuomo isn't offensive to the Democratic base.

[RaphaelDLG]

Pretty obviously Andrew Cuomo, which is terrifying

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Jason Kander.

You really think he would rise than far in 4 years, with hardly any name recognition and no elected office?

Yep!

[AGA]

Steve Bullock or Andrew Cuomo.

[Clarence Boddicker]

Gavin Newsome

[Kingpoleon]

If you were told by someone from the future that the 2020 Democratic Party nominee was NOT one of these 8 potential candidates (who might or might not have even ended up running):

-Elizabeth Warren
-Bernie Sanders
-Joe Biden
-Kirsten Gillibrand
-Kamala Harris
-Corey Booker
-Sherrod Brown
-Al Franken

...then who would you think the Democratic nominee actually was?

Bullock, Newsom, Castro, or Gabbard.

[Kringla Heimsins]

Steve Bullock hands down. He's a dark horse candidate that could have large appeal in 2020.

This. Also, it could be Andrew Cuomo, but it's less likely imo.

Other possibility: Eric Garcetti. He can run for Senator in 2018, and he has been the mayor of the second biggest city in America, so we can't say he is inexperienced.

[MAINEiac4434]

Probably Cuomo. Hopefully Newsom or Heinrich. Maybe Terry McAuliffe or Amy Klobuchar.

[RaphaelDLG]

The bottom line is if it's not somebody who is completely off the radar right now, it's probably somebody god-awful.

[TDAS04]

Amy Klobuchar. 

[Progressive]

Bullock, Cuomo, Cuban, or Kander.

[President Johnson]

Roy Cooper

[Crumpets]

Amy Klobuchar. 

[Mr. Smith]

Ashley Judd to get that outsider celeb cred and a "red"-stater.

But seriously, Donald Trump wasn't supposed to be a possibility either.

[Mr. Morden]

But seriously, Donald Trump wasn't supposed to be a possibility either.

People sometimes win the nomination who weren't on anyone's top 10 list three years in advance, sure.  That doesn't mean that some potential candidates aren't more likely than others though, so I'm not sure where you're going with this?

[Vosem]

We can't rule out Cuban/Zuckerberg/Sandberg/Steyer/Iger, either.

[DaydreamNation]

Jon Tester.