Primus Inter Pares - December 2006 General Election

[Dereich]

Will Labour/Conservatives still get a malus/bonus with these numbers?

[Lumine]

Will Labour/Conservatives still get a malus/bonus with these numbers?

By the rules I set last time there should be a 4% swing from Labour to the Conservatives, but it may depend on the final result if its just too warped (say, Labour would end up with less than 10% of the vote or something like that).

Of course, that means the party that wins the election (by forming and leading a government) will face its first penalty when it goes for reelection at the next election.

[MAINEiac4434]

If these results hold, Tories will be the single largest party but well short of a majority. Labour will be second, New Deal third, Lib Dems fourth. A Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not be enough for a majority.

[Phony Moderate]

Btw, for those wanting detailed results, I have UK Elect, which is much more sophisticated than Electoral Calculus. I don't how to give a full list of results, but I can certainly provide individual seats, and I guess a screenshot of the map.

[Kingpoleon]

If these results hold, Tories will be the single largest party but well short of a majority. Labour will be second, New Deal third, Lib Dems fourth. A Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not be enough for a majority.

By Lib Dems, do you mean "Alliance"?

[Lumine]

Still more than a day left, but turnout has been very good (higher than the last election I think). At this rate New Deal will be the most interesting case, as yesterday they had a shot at actually winning 400 seats in Parliament. Under current numbers and even with a penalty for Labour (which benefits them) they would reach only 40-50 at most.

[Intell]

Still more than a day left, but turnout has been very good (higher than the last election I think). At this rate New Deal will be the most interesting case, as yesterday they had a shot at actually winning 400 seats in Parliament. Under current numbers and even with a penalty for Labour (which benefits them) they would reach only 40-50 at most.

So a party get a 1% loss each election they win, after they've won the first one.

[Lumine]

Still more than a day left, but turnout has been very good (higher than the last election I think). At this rate New Deal will be the most interesting case, as yesterday they had a shot at actually winning 400 seats in Parliament. Under current numbers and even with a penalty for Labour (which benefits them) they would reach only 40-50 at most.

So a party get a 1% loss each election they win, after they've won the first one.

That would be the idea, probably going to explore penalties more once I've started the second British series. So for example OTL 1997 would see the Tories under a 4% penalty (having won 79, 83, 87, 92 and going for the fifth), and this one would see Labour under a similar 4% penalty (having won 1996, 2000, 2005, April 2006 and now going for a fifth "victory").

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hilarious results!

Two more votes for Labour would make it even better.

[Lumine]

December 2006 General Election:

December 2006 - Chris Patten ends a decade of a Labour government

Conservative Party: 29.2% (291 MP's)
Labour Party: 14.5% (128 MP's)
Alliance: 25.2% (118 MP's)
New Deal: 25.2% (82 MP's)
Others: 6% (31 MP's)

The main question hanging in the election was that of Robert Kilroy-Silk. Affectionally referred to as "the Kil-Silk", the leader of New Deal had garnered enough support to field his party across most of the United Kingdom, and was riding at more than 20% in the polls as one of the major parties in contention for the government. Indeed, with the Tories and the Alliance failing to find their voice in the early days due to internal issues (the Thatcherites making life hard for Patten, and Clegg and Blair not having a very positive personal relationship), many wondered whether Britain was bound to choosing between Livingstone and Kilroy-Silk as their next Prime Minister. The campaign would be shaken by the events that came on the first of two debates agreed by the leaders, leading to one of the most historic meltdowns for a party in British politics.

Rather than focus fire on Patten as he did with IDS, Kilroy-Silk dedicated the debate to target Livingstone, constantly attacking him and hoping to provoke him on an outburst. He got exactly what he wanted as the debate turned into foreign policy and Livingstone's poor relationship with Israel, with Kilroy-Silk angering the Prime Minister so much than Livingstone made a remark to the effect of Hitler having collaborated with Zionist groups. The debate turned into a historic disaster, with Kilroy-Silk seizing control of the stage and the audience while systematically bashing the Prime Minister on live television, a fact many saw as Kilroy-Silk's personal revenge for his personal struggle against Militant and the Labour hard-left in the 80's. The effect in the polls was explosive, with some polls putting New Deal as high as 40% and models going as far as suggesting Kilroy-Silk would not only enter Downing Street, but would do so with a strong majority.

The second debate was the last chance the other parties had to stop New Deal, and they seized it. While the embattled Livingstone saw Labour's poll ratings collapse as voters flocked to New Deal (and some to New Labour), Patten, Clegg and Blair all drew fire on Kilroy-Silk, landing several blows and provoking him this time to make questionable statements. As New Deal's poll ratings returned to earth (but remained ahead of all parties), all the leaders braced for the impact of Election Night as unemployment resumed its rise through November, halting a last minute offensive by Labour to prevent a disaster. To the shock of many observers the threat of New Deal didn't materialize as expect, garnering a still impressive 25% of the vote but only returning 80 MP's due to the electoral system. Patten's Tories polled ahead on 29% and thirty seats short of a majority, while the Alliance of Blair and Clegg achieved its breakthrough on a solid 118 seats (61 Lib Dem, 57 New Labour).

Labour, however, faced electoral collapse in a manner not seen before. Polling less than 15% and with half their vote share gone (many drawn into Kilroy-Silk's message), Labour lost more than 160 MP's (a few more than the Conservatives lost in 1996), including Chancellor of the Exchequer John Cryer, former Deputy Prime Minister Margaret Beckett and former Home Secretary Frank Dobson. Talk in the aftermath of the election suggested the Conservatives could attempt a minority government, but with Northern Ireland and unemployment still so explosive Patten made the bold choice to opening talks with Clegg and Blair for a National Government of sorts. In the end, after a week of tense negotiation the three leaders hammered an agreement for a Coalition government, making Clegg Deputy Prime Minister and Blair Foreign Secretary as both parties agreed to several policy concessions.

Chris Patten became Prime Minister by mid December, and Britain had its first Coalition government since the war.

[Lumine]

To give you an idea of how crazy the swings were, here are some noteworthy losses:

Labour:

To Alliance:
Frank Dobson
Chuka Ummuna
Emily Thornberry
Owen Smith
John Cryer
Hazel Blears

To New Deal:
Alan Johnson
Margaret Beckett
Caroline Flint
Jon Cruddas

To Con:
Ed Balls

Conservative:

To Alliance:

Oliver Letwin
Zac Goldsmith

[MAINEiac4434]

Damn, Chuka's gone. I would've liked to see him run for the leadership.

[Phony Moderate]

Damn, Chuka's gone. I would've liked to see him run for the leadership.

I wonder if he's managed to avoid the 'trash' recently.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

How many of the others are non-Northern Ireland parties?

[Lumine]

How many of the others are non-Northern Ireland parties?

18 MP's are from Northern Ireland, so 13. They're 8 from the Scottish National Party, 4 from Plaid Cymru and 1 Independent (Richard Taylor).

[Lechasseur]

Despite being a bit centrist for my tastes, Patten and the Tories.

This