The candidates are pretty similar, but more importantly, nobody is paying attention to the race within the state. I'd argue the elevated stakes of the special elections in MT-AL and GA-06 have drawn away media attention from this primary, which works against Perriello in my opinion since he's quite intent on nationalizing the race.
Three possibilities:
1. Northam happily acknowledges that he was a 2-time Bush voter and he almost made a deal to switch parties back in the late 2000's. It's not unreasonable that the Dem base starts to question his sincerity to the cause when reminded of this.
2. Perriello is actually turning out a bloc of Trump supporters who care more about populism that party ideology. This sounds a bit crazy, but his primary margin in western VA is unreal. This could also explain why Stewart has mostly failed to launch on the R side.
3. Being all social issues, all the time is hurting Northam, even in Virginia. Some VA Dems might be sensing a Mark Udall redux and they'd rather nip that in the bud in the primary.
Basically, he has some of Hillary Clinton's problems (but not corruption) and some of Jeb Bush's low energy problems. If there is any truth at all to #2, Perriello is the better GE candidate.
1. I don't
think that matters too much in Virginia.
2. Trump supporters? Almost certainly not. Disaffected rural lefties who like Perriello's message? Very likely, but I don't think that will be too large of an electorate. Just look at the results of the 2016 presidential primary.
3. Actually, Perriello is trying to outflank him on social liberalism, but I get your point. I do think that both candidates have strayed away from bread-and-butter VA political issues. However, Perriello is the greater offender of this since he wants to make this race a referendum on Trump so badly.
If Perriello is the better GE candidate, he'll prove it by winning the nomination. Until then, they both have very low name ID, which makes this race about turnout, and I think Northam's retail politicking will give him the advantage there.
