VA-CNU (PRI): Dems tied, Gillespie yuge lead (user search)
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  VA-CNU (PRI): Dems tied, Gillespie yuge lead (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-CNU (PRI): Dems tied, Gillespie yuge lead  (Read 1408 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: March 29, 2017, 06:55:02 PM »

This feels increasingly like one of those presidential primaries where Clinton and Sanders were tied early on and then Sanders ultimately ended up winning by double digits.  If Northam is only tied with Perriello now, I find it hard to believe he can hold on until June.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2017, 07:16:12 PM »

Why is this even competitive? I thought Northam was going to cruise to victory, and VA's Democratic primary electorate doesn't seem like one that would reject him in favor of a more progressive candidate (yeah, I know they both have pretty similar views, but still..)

Three possibilities:

1. Northam happily acknowledges that he was a 2-time Bush voter and he almost made a deal to switch parties back in the late 2000's.  It's not unreasonable that the Dem base starts to question his sincerity to the cause when reminded of this.

2. Perriello is actually turning out a bloc of Trump supporters who care more about populism that party ideology.  This sounds a bit crazy, but his primary margin in western VA is unreal.  This could also explain why Stewart has mostly failed to launch on the R side.

3.  Being all social issues, all the time is hurting Northam, even in Virginia.  Some VA Dems might be sensing a Mark Udall redux and they'd rather nip that in the bud in the primary.

Basically, he has some of Hillary Clinton's problems (but not corruption) and some of Jeb Bush's low energy problems.  If there is any truth at all to #2, Perriello is the better GE candidate.
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