Why is this even competitive? I thought Northam was going to cruise to victory, and VA's Democratic primary electorate doesn't seem like one that would reject him in favor of a more progressive candidate (yeah, I know they both have pretty similar views, but still..)
Three possibilities:
1. Northam happily acknowledges that he was a 2-time Bush voter and he almost made a deal to switch parties back in the late 2000's. It's not unreasonable that the Dem base starts to question his sincerity to the cause when reminded of this.
2. Perriello is actually turning out a bloc of Trump supporters who care more about populism that party ideology. This sounds a bit crazy, but his primary margin in western VA is unreal. This could also explain why Stewart has mostly failed to launch on the R side.
3. Being all social issues, all the time is hurting Northam, even in Virginia. Some VA Dems might be sensing a Mark Udall redux and they'd rather nip that in the bud in the primary.
Basically, he has some of Hillary Clinton's problems (but not corruption) and some of Jeb Bush's low energy problems. If there is any truth at all to #2, Perriello is the better GE candidate.