Are there any downballot races(SOS,AG,etc.) where the incumbent party is DOA?

[GlobeSoc]

[KingSweden]

Probably way too early to say

[Heisenberg]

Probably way too early to say

This, but if Republicans held any downballot offices in Illinois, I'd say those.

In Iowa, if the longtime Democratic AG and/or Treasurer retire, I'd instantly put those at Likely R, but DOA is a stretch.

[publicunofficial]

Not until 2020, but I don't expect Republicans to hold Washington's Treasurer seat.

[BuckeyeNut]

Colorado's Republican AG is likely in deep trouble.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Probably way too early to say

This, but if Republicans held any downballot offices in Illinois, I'd say those.

In Iowa, if the longtime Democratic AG and/or Treasurer retire, I'd instantly put those at Likely R, but DOA is a stretch.

Nah, the Democrats have some solid potential candidates who would probably run.

[Gass3268]

Probably way too early to say

This, but if Republicans held any downballot offices in Illinois, I'd say those.

In Iowa, if the longtime Democratic AG and/or Treasurer retire, I'd instantly put those at Likely R, but DOA is a stretch.

If Hillary won, maybe, but I think Democrats stand a good chance during a Trumpterm.

[Rjjr77]

If Jim Hood leaves AG in Mississippi it's over

[Maxwell]

If Jim Hood leaves AG in Mississippi it's over

yep.

I'd also say that regardless of whether or not Adam Laxalt runs for Governor of Nevada, AG is going to be tough to hold.

[MT Treasurer]

Nicole Galloway is in big, big trouble. She'd probably do best if she focused on local issues and kept her distance from McCaskill. I can see her outperforming McCaskill by 5-7 points or so, but more than that? Unlikely.

[GlobeSoc]

Nicole Galloway is in big, big trouble. She'd probably do best if she focused on local issues and kept her distance from McCaskill. I can see her outperforming McCaskill by 5-7 points or so, but more than that? Unlikely.

In what scenarios would she survive, and would she have future potential for higher office?

[Webnicz]

None that I can think of, but there's a few downballot races where I'd have the incumbent at a disadvantage. Here's my extremely premature predictions (which means these people will likely end up winning reelection if my electoral predictions are precedent lol):

Arizona SoS Michele Reagan: She has had a string of terrible headlines and f*ed up the elections this past year in the primary. Look at the Maricopa County Recorder who was defeated last year (and they got less blame than Reagan!) for how well that is likely to go over in 2018. Leans D.

Missouri Auditor Nicole Galloway: she's an appointee who sits in a state Trump won by 19. I think Dems will have to be winning the Senate race (or come within a point or two) for her to hold on. Likely R.

New Mexico Lands Commissioner Aubrey Dunn: State where Trump is unpopular, he barely won in 2014 against an opponent who's already declared for 2018, and where the D Governor and Senate candidates will probably romp. Leans D.

More bad News for Michele Reagan. She will be primaried by a state senator. A state senator very involved in his states party primarying a statewide official of his party...doesn't happen too often. I had my doubts at first but now im going to say the race is lean D. Especially if Mayor Stanton steps in(hes already filed to run)

[Cynthia]

Kentucky Sec of State (Open seat I believe), likely to safe R.

[Bojack Horseman]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that if Bill Scheutte wins the GOP nomination for Governor, he'll meet the same fate as Dick DeVos.

[Ebsy]

Galloway isn't DOA but is in trouble obviously.

I agree with NV AG and KY SOS.

[BuckeyeNut]

So, ALG's (presumed) leaving makes KY SOS very vulnerable. How do people feel about 'lil Beshear in the AG's office?

[jamestroll]

The strong Republicans are all going to go after McCaskill and Galloway has been surprisingly uncontroversial for being an appointee from Jay Nixon.

Galloway is not a major target of the GOP and will likely face a better climate than Missouri Democrats did in 2016. The GOP wants that office obviously.

Only thing that will defeat her is partisanship and staying anonymous. But Galloway's press is positive and fairly frequent.

The county map of her potential victory would be quite interesting. Would be interesting to see if some old yellow dog counties come back to her or if she just racks up margins in suburbs.

[Rjjr77]

So, ALG's (presumed) leaving makes KY SOS very vulnerable. How do people feel about 'lil Beshear in the AG's office?

He's green and he squeaked through. He's neither safe nor dead right now.

[Dr. MB]

Mississippi (Jim Hood) for sure. I don't see the Democrats keeping it past 2019, he'll likely decide to retire or run for Governor.

Dems will have a hard time keeping their remaining offices in KY/WV in 2019/20, but not DOA.

The Dems may have a hard time keeping office in Iowa once the longtime incumbents retire as well as other midwestern states, same with the Republicans in the southwest.

[mds32]

The strong Republicans are all going to go after McCaskill and Galloway has been surprisingly uncontroversial for being an appointee from Jay Nixon.

Galloway is not a major target of the GOP and will likely face a better climate than Missouri Democrats did in 2016. The GOP wants that office obviously.

Only thing that will defeat her is partisanship and staying anonymous. But Galloway's press is positive and fairly frequent.

The county map of her potential victory would be quite interesting. Would be interesting to see if some old yellow dog counties come back to her or if she just racks up margins in suburbs.

She could take Saline near Boone, or Ste. Genevieve, beyond that I don't see what other "yellow-dog" counties she could win.

[Rjjr77]

The strong Republicans are all going to go after McCaskill and Galloway has been surprisingly uncontroversial for being an appointee from Jay Nixon.

Galloway is not a major target of the GOP and will likely face a better climate than Missouri Democrats did in 2016. The GOP wants that office obviously.

Only thing that will defeat her is partisanship and staying anonymous. But Galloway's press is positive and fairly frequent.

The county map of her potential victory would be quite interesting. Would be interesting to see if some old yellow dog counties come back to her or if she just racks up margins in suburbs.

 I think she's dead. Her profile is too low, and she doesn't cut that conservative dem streak.in reality her appointment was more political patronage than elevating a rising star. Plus it's not like she's a yellow dog D, she's a classic urban D Missouri candidate.
If she could steal a St Genevieve or even better a St Charles she'd be in great shape, more likely she'll have to have massive STL county numbers and a bigger Boone County share  

[Rjjr77]

St gen in and of itself isn't important, but it's probably the most swingy rural county in the state, if she flips it, it means her numbers in the rural counties are better than most dems with her profile.