What state will have the largest GOP vote margin in 2020?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2016:
1. Texas: R+807K
2. Tennessee: R+652K
3. Alabama: R+589K
4. Kentucky: R+574K
5. Oklahoma: R+529K

2012:
1. Texas: R+1.26M
2. Tennessee: R+502K
3. Utah: R+489K
4. Alabama: R+460K
5. Oklahoma: R+448K

I would rate it as Likely Texas for now, but repeating 2016 trends would easily make it Tennessee.  Let's hope we're not struggling so much in a key state for us that a 11-EV state is the answer, though!

[AGA]

I expect Texas to not trend as strongly Democratic as it did in 2016 in 2020. Clinton actually spent some money there, and by 2020, many suburbanites near the major Texas cities will have likely warmed up to him.

[BaldEagle1991]

I expect Texas to not trend as strongly Democratic as it did in 2016 in 2020. Clinton actually spent some money there, and by 2020, many suburbanites near the major Texas cities will have likely warmed up to him.

It's a mix down here.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I didn't think there was much more room for Democratic margins to drop in places like Tennessee and Alabama, but by God Hillary found a way. God, I fear for this country if whites voting 90% R and minorities voting 90% D starts spreading from outside the South (unlikely, I know).

In rural areas, we got way closer to that type of dynamic, but a nominee who tanks in suburban areas can't win 90% of white voters.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I didn't think there was much more room for Democratic margins to drop in places like Tennessee and Alabama, but by God Hillary found a way. God, I fear for this country if whites voting 90% R and minorities voting 90% D starts spreading from outside the South (unlikely, I know).

That is only really true in Alabama, Mississippi, and non-Atlanta area Georgia.  Maybe Louisiana too.  Even in Arkansas, Democrats get close to 20% of the white vote.  In Tennessee, it is more like 25 or 30%.  For example, TN-1 is 96% white, suggesting that Republicans should be getting nearly 90% of the vote, which doesn't happen.  If Tennessee whites started voting like Mississippi whites, Republicans would be able to clear 75% of the vote in the state with ease.  Jim Cooper would be good as gone in a ~R+20 district that gave 2/3 of the vote to Trump.  Steve Cohen would be fine in his majority-black district, though.

[Figueira]

I'll go with Tennessee, but it could also easily be Texas.

Percentages? I don't see why it would be anything other than Wyoming.

[pbrower2a]

I'm more concerned about the percentage margin.

I do not trust any poll from Texas because the state is too diverse and does not fit into any region.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Probably Texas.

[BaldEagle1991]

I do not trust any poll from Texas because the state is too diverse and does not fit into any region.

It's no doubt a Southern state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I do not trust any poll from Texas because the state is too diverse and does not fit into any region.

It's no doubt a Southern state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tennessee

[GlobeSoc]

Texas.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I added a poll with the top five from 2016

[New-Age Tory]

At this point, I'm going with Texas. I have a hard time seeing a Democrat pull of a such a clear-cut majority in Harris County (Houston) in the near-future, let alone in Fort Bend County (Houston suburbs). However, if the Democrats nominate a Southerner or a social-conservative, the Republicans' margin in the state could shrink a bit.