What was Gary Johnson's appeal ?
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  What was Gary Johnson's appeal ?
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Author Topic: What was Gary Johnson's appeal ?  (Read 1467 times)
jman123
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« on: March 29, 2017, 11:26:42 AM »

I mean, He got 3.28 percent nationally. That's impressive considering how third party candidates generally get very small amounts of votes. I am studying this phenomenon in my college class on political science. Can anyone explain what led to this and who were the Johnson voters?
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #1 on: March 29, 2017, 12:09:25 PM »

He wasn't Hillary and he also wasn't Trump.
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White Trash
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« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2017, 12:10:25 PM »

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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2017, 12:23:50 PM »

Yes, pretty much generic protest vote candidate. The fact that he had an extremely generic name and at least one view that everyone agreed with helped.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2017, 12:24:56 PM »

From what I've seen, the buzz about him began when the media realized how much people hate both Clinton and Trump. And there he was, a credible person (former Governor) in an established party. They started talking about him and he started gaining traction. Choosing Weld, another former Governor who is considered popular and moderate, made the ticket considerably more credible and caused even more media buzz about the Libertarians. It still wasn't a very large buzz, but the very fact that there was a ticket with two governors helped bring forward an alternative, and Johnson started polling high, sometimes even in the double digits. Then people saw that he isn't a great public speaker and the Clinton vs Trump got more polarizing, so the closer we got to election day, the more Johnson declined, but he still had the ticket and the national environment to do much better than a typical libertarian ticket.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2017, 12:38:37 PM »

From what I've seen, the buzz about him began when the media realized how much people hate both Clinton and Trump.

I actually think it was mostly due to #NeverTrump Republican elites.  There were a number of right-of-center media folks like Bill Kristol and Erick Erickson in the spring of last year who were saying that they wouldn't support Trump in the general election, but also weren't going to vote for Clinton either.  Now, few of these #NeverTrump elites actually did end up going with Johnson, but the fact that they started publicly musing on who they *would* consider voting for is what prompted media-verse discussion of who the alternatives to the two major party nominees were, which was inevitably going to include the Libertarian nominee.

That, more than anything else, is what prompted the media to start including Johnson in polls, for example.  If Trump had been a more conventional Republican, who was unpopular with voters but acceptable to party elites, then it's not clear that Johnson would have gained as much prominence.
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RI
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« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2017, 12:39:15 PM »

Then people saw that he isn't a great public speaker and the Clinton vs Trump got more polarizing, so the closer we got to election day, the more Johnson declined, but he still had the ticket and the national environment to do much better than a typical libertarian ticket.

McMullin also took away a lot of Johnson's protest vote power.
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sparkey
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« Reply #7 on: March 29, 2017, 01:05:10 PM »

Some factors:

(1) Number one factor: He had high support from independents, who didn't like Hillary or Trump
(2) Hillary was unpopular with some Ds, so he drew a significant minority of Sanders supporters and the like
(3) Trump was unpopular with some Rs, so he drew a significant number of #NeverTrumpers
(4) He is a moderate libertarian, which is popular
(5) He was on the ballot in every state
(6) He had governing and business credentials
(7) He had a popular and credible running mate

Honestly, he could have done even better, especially if he had made the debates. I know he's not a great debater, but the exposure likely would have had a positive effect anyway, even if all he did at the debate was stick his tongue out and talk funny. I think I heard that somewhere before.
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2017, 02:36:56 PM »


Indeed. It's worth noting that for much of the race Johnson polled in the high single digits around 8% and only at the very end did he fall below 5%. He got some suburban Republicans who hated Trump. He also got some young Sanders voters who liked his positions on social issues and protest voted for him against Clinton. He did well but I was surprised he didn't do better given the unpopularity of both candidates and parties and his previously high poll numbers.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2017, 11:47:43 PM »

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cwt
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« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2017, 11:33:47 PM »


Indeed. It's worth noting that for much of the race Johnson polled in the high single digits around 8% and only at the very end did he fall below 5%. He got some suburban Republicans who hated Trump. He also got some young Sanders voters who liked his positions on social issues and protest voted for him against Clinton. He did well but I was surprised he didn't do better given the unpopularity of both candidates and parties and his previously high poll numbers.

I doubt he got more than a handful of Sanders voters. Most of them voted for Hillary, but besides that, the other ones either voted for Stein, wrote in Bernie, voted for a socialist party, or abstained.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2017, 08:42:07 AM »

He was a protest vote against two very unpopular and untrusted candidates.

Turns out, he was a total whack job, but was still more qualified than Trump to be president.
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Figueira
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2017, 01:57:15 PM »

He was a former Republican who was more qualified to be President (at least in terms of traditional "qualifications") than the Republican nominee, and in some ways more within the Republican mainstream. This in turn made him the most high-profile third party candidate, which made him attractive to the many Democrats who were unhappy with Clinton. The fact that he got so few votes shows (1) how partisan people are, and (2) what an incompetent candidate Johnson is.
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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2017, 02:22:56 PM »

He was a protest vote against two very unpopular and untrusted candidates.

Turns out, he was a total whack job, but was still more qualified than Trump to be president.

I think you're forgetting something. As Hilary Clinton, Richard Nixon, Elder Bush, Michael Dukakis, Lincoln Chafee, Pontius Pilate, Adolf Hitler, King Henry VIII, and DW Perry prove, resume alone does not equal  qualified.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2017, 09:33:55 PM »

If Johnson and Weld had run as Independents, rather than as Libertarians, they may have done better.  If Weld had run for President as an Independent, he'd have gotten 6% of the vote.
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2017, 09:50:45 PM »

He was a protest vote against two very unpopular and untrusted candidates.

Turns out, he was a total whack job, but was still more qualified than Trump to be president.

I think you're forgetting something. As Hilary Clinton, Richard Nixon, Elder Bush, Michael Dukakis, Lincoln Chafee, Pontius Pilate, Adolf Hitler, King Henry VIII, and DW Perry prove, resume alone does not equal  qualified.


HW Bush was a great president
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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2017, 10:09:24 PM »

If Johnson and Weld had run as Independents, rather than as Libertarians, they may have done better.  If Weld had run for President as an Independent, he'd have gotten 6% of the vote.


Better: If Weld was on top instead of Johnson, they would have done better.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #17 on: April 01, 2017, 04:17:12 AM »

If Johnson and Weld had run as Independents, rather than as Libertarians, they may have done better.  If Weld had run for President as an Independent, he'd have gotten 6% of the vote.


Better: If Weld was on top instead of Johnson, they would have done better.

The problem is getting the Libertarian Party to agree to that ticket. It's that or try to get ballot access on their own.
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #18 on: April 01, 2017, 05:14:52 PM »


Indeed. It's worth noting that for much of the race Johnson polled in the high single digits around 8% and only at the very end did he fall below 5%. He got some suburban Republicans who hated Trump. He also got some young Sanders voters who liked his positions on social issues and protest voted for him against Clinton. He did well but I was surprised he didn't do better given the unpopularity of both candidates and parties and his previously high poll numbers.

I doubt he got more than a handful of Sanders voters. Most of them voted for Hillary, but besides that, the other ones either voted for Stein, wrote in Bernie, voted for a socialist party, or abstained.

Maybe of the hardcore lefty Bernie voters they voted more like that. But a lot of his voters just had an independent bent which had them voting for Johnson.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2017, 08:54:24 PM »


Also, the fact that he was a two-term state governor gave him a level of credibility that most third-party candidates lack and, combined with having a credible running mate, made him more palatable to marginal voters who normally wouldn't vote third party.
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2017, 08:51:12 PM »

more ballot access than any other non D/R candidate, more money, a functional resume that got him some media coverage and support. Trump and Clinton were really unpopular, that's about it, also his running mate was competent at least.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #21 on: April 03, 2017, 10:49:50 PM »

He had actual appeal four years ago to a very small but loyal base. He'd have done worse than he did in 2012 if this was a normal election.
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