TX-SEN: True to Form

[Brittain33]

So is anything coming out of that mailers disguised as summons thing?

I’m sure Ken Paxton will get right on that any day now.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1041857615637229568

Culberson up by 4?

I know this is not that topic, but I'm pissed. Lizzie should've done more to put her name out.

Fletcher is up by 5 among the most excited to vote. According to NY, she's only down by 2 overall now too. And that's with a rather small <45 sample size.

[mcmikk]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1041845973100756992

Lol

[DabbingSanta]

I think at this point a Ted Cruz-related scandal is needed for Beto to get a huge jump in the polls.

Will this be it....

https://twitter.com/sean_r_owen/status/1041182844234522624

[BaldEagle1991]

I think at this point a Ted Cruz-related scandal is needed for Beto to get a huge jump in the polls.

Will this be it....

https://twitter.com/sean_r_owen/status/1041182844234522624

If this gets overblown in the media, then yes. Yet I just watched local news and hardly saw a thing about it.

[UWS]

I think at this point a Ted Cruz-related scandal is needed for Beto to get a huge jump in the polls.

Will this be it....

https://twitter.com/sean_r_owen/status/1041182844234522624

If this gets overblown in the media, then yes. Yet I just watched local news and hardly saw a thing about it.

In addition, the factcheckers already rated this claim that Cruz attempted to deceive voters by sending fundraising letters with an envelope made up to resemble a legal summons as True.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/ted-cruz-summons-mailings/

[Florida Man for Crime]

The end is near for lying Ted

OK, with odds like that I'd definitely buy Cruz's stock if I were into that sort of thing.

This is a good sign for Beto's chances and is much better than TX-23 (where Cruz was winning by 4 points in a Clinton district), but when you look at the #s that Beto would need to win, it is not clear that this is enough. It's enough for him to come closer than usual for a Democrat, of course, but it is unlikely enough to actually win a statewide race.

In comparison to Romney '12 59.9% - Obama '12 38.6%, it is an astounding swing.

However, we should also be looking in particular in comparison to 2016: Clinton 48.5% - Trump 47.1%.

With Culberson up 48-45, Beto is up 51-44. That is a bit (but not too much) above Clinton, and Cruz is a bit below Trump, indicating that some combination of 3rd party votes and former Trump voters are swinging to Beto (of course, the electorate is also different as compared to a Presidential year).

And Trump's approval rating is 42% approve, 52% disapprove.

Beto's 51-44 margin is a swing of 5.6% as compared to the 2016 Presidential results (with rounding error in the poll margin).

But statewide, in 2016 Trump won 52.1% - 43.12%, by a margin of 8.98. So in general, Beto needs a statewide swing of at least 9% to win.

In the best case scenario for this individual poll, if Beto got *all* the undecideds, he would be up 56-44. That would be a margin of 12 points and a margin swing of 10.6.

That is indeed more than a 9% swing. But only very slightly higher, and it is rather implausible for him to win ALL the undecideds (but more plausible that he could win most of them). If TX-07 were just any district, that would be more or less ok. However, I would think that if there is anywhere in TX where Beto has a chance to impove beyond Clinton, it will need to be with urban/suburban college-educated white voters. TX-07 (along with TX-32 in Dallas) is the epicenter for that.

So I think that to have a realistic shot of actually winning (not just losing by a narrower margin), Beto needs a significantly larger-than-average swing in this sort of district. Just by eyeballing it (I previously calculated benchmarks by county, but not Congressional District), I would say that Beto should really ideally be shooting for a win of something more like a win by a margin of something like 15-20 points in TX-07 if he wants to win statewide.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The end is near for lying Ted

OK, with odds like that I'd definitely buy Cruz's stock if I were into that sort of thing.

Hey, free money.

It is possible that the Quinnipiac poll could show Beto doing better than is realistic, and possibly word of that may have leaked to a few people who started buying up Beto stock prior to the public release of the poll.

[Florida Man for Crime]

What would be a perfect county by county map of a winning formula for a Beto O’Rourke victory?

I made county benchmarks for a narrow Beto win a few pages back

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261509.msg6407062#msg6407062

[Florida Man for Crime]

So I think that to have a realistic shot of actually winning (not just losing by a narrower margin), Beto needs a significantly larger-than-average swing in this sort of district. Just by eyeballing it (I previously calculated benchmarks by county, but not Congressional District), I would say that Beto should really ideally be shooting for a win of something more like a win by a margin of something like 15-20 points in TX-07 if he wants to win statewide.

Hmm, on second thought/closer examination, in my county benchmarks I had swings in margins of the following size from 2016-Pres:

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Of all the counties in TX, if you had to call a single county most similar to TX-07, it would probably be Collin county, or perhaps Williamson. And I have swings of 13-14% there needed for a narrow Beto victory, so it might be more like that than 15%-20% needed.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

do y'all think Beto will do good in the debates and if so how much will it help him?

[2016]

I predict a Tie in the Q-Poll.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Well, Cruz leads by 9, 54-45 in the Quinnipiac poll.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2570

I am disappointed because personally I would like Beto to win, but on the other hand LMAO at all those who were seriously thinking Beto can win.

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[Torrain]

Well, Cruz leads by 9, 54-45 in the Quinnipiac poll.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2570

I am disappointed because personally I would like Beto to win, but on the other hand LMAO at all those who were seriously thinking Beto can win.

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So the dynamics of the race seem relatively clear, Cruz +4 or 5 right now, and an uphill climb for O'Rourke. I'd hazard it's still competitive though, and will be interested to see what effects the Kavanaugh debacle have on the race.

Lean Cruz

[Florida Man for Crime]

So the dynamics of the race seem relatively clear, Cruz +4 or 5 right now, and an uphill climb for O'Rourke. I'd hazard it's still competitive though, and will be interested to see what effects the Kavanaugh debacle have on the race.

Lean Cruz

The one point for hope for Beto/Dems in this poll is that it has virtually no undecideds. There are 3rd party candidates on the ballot, and those will in reality get at least some votes. Also, by election day the undecideds could possibly break somewhat differently than ones who were apparently pushed in this poll and chose Cruz.

[MT Treasurer]

The end is near for lying Ted

Apparently not quite yet!

[BaldEagle1991]

Goodness gracious, Ted Cruz is really as secretly popular in Texas much like how Putin is in Russia.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Goodness gracious, Ted Cruz is really as secretly popular in Texas much like how Putin is in Russia.

Is Ted Cruz a very well known figure that even people who are barely political would know who he is. If not then that would explain why.


I dont think Cruz overall is known as much by regular people as maybe Abbott is(Generally I think people tend to know their governors more then their senators)

[MT Treasurer]

OTOH, I have a hard time seeing how Cruz wins by 9 while Walker loses by 5.

[OSR stands with Israel]

OTOH, I have a hard time seeing how Cruz wins by 9 while Walker loses by 5.

Well TX is far more Republican than WI is, and Gubernatorial Races are far more candidate based compared to Senate ones.

[DabbingSanta]

Goodness gracious, Ted Cruz is really as secretly popular in Texas much like how Putin is in Russia.

Is Ted Cruz a very well known figure that even people who are barely political would know who he is.

Of course everyone knows who Ted Cruz is LOL..

[windjammer]

OTOH, I have a hard time seeing how Cruz wins by 9 while Walker loses by 5.

Well I think Cruz is going to win by 5 points in the end.
Quinnipiac has a tendancy to give a bigger lead to those who are leading. Remember Gardner +8, he ended up winning but not by this margin

[BaldEagle1991]

Hopefully some Me Too type scandal hits Cruz

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, there it goes. Yeah, Lyin' Ted probably has this unless something dramatic happens in the next 7 weeks.

[aaroncd107]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-statepolls/tightening-texas-race-boosts-democrats-hopes-of-taking-senate-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1LZ18B BETO UP TWO IN UVA/REUTERS/IPSOS