TX-SEN: True to Form

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone know if Democrats picked up any legislative seats within Marchant's, McCaul's, Olson's, or Roy's districts? If so, that would be the place to begin looking for 2020 challengers to these guys.

Dems did pick up two state House seats within Williamson County, so there's a D bench in TX-31 now

I live in Marchant's district.  Matt Rinaldi (the member who threatened to put a bullet in someone's head) lost his state house seat and Don Huffines (Ultra rich, Ultra conservative guy who went to Russia in August) lost his state senate seat.  A little perspective on the Dallas area.  In 2012, it was 6 Dems and 8 Reps representing Dallas but now it is 12 Dems and 2 Reps.  I said many times Dems should target Marchant, who frankly, does nothing.

Huh. I didn’t know Ronaldi was in Marchant’s district. Nice to see a bench here.

Also, to the person who asked if Dems had a path to flip the State House in 2020, there were like 4 agonizingly close losses in Tarrant County alone in the house

I was suspecting that the Democrats would make 2 gains in Texas but at the end they made just one.

They made 2 house seat gains?
a 3rd is in recount although likely hurd.

12 TX State house Gains. 2 State Senate Gains. 2 Congressional pickups.

In one instant, the 2020 Texas state house elections have become the most crucial election redistricting wise, dems only need 7 gains and there are definitely more Beto seats out there looking at the map. Dems get the chamber, and Republicans lose a ton of seats even if the map is only a little bit more fair then present.

[Gass3268]

Anyone know if Democrats picked up any legislative seats within Marchant's, McCaul's, Olson's, or Roy's districts? If so, that would be the place to begin looking for 2020 challengers to these guys.

Dems did pick up two state House seats within Williamson County, so there's a D bench in TX-31 now

I live in Marchant's district.  Matt Rinaldi (the member who threatened to put a bullet in someone's head) lost his state house seat and Don Huffines (Ultra rich, Ultra conservative guy who went to Russia in August) lost his state senate seat.  A little perspective on the Dallas area.  In 2012, it was 6 Dems and 8 Reps representing Dallas but now it is 12 Dems and 2 Reps.  I said many times Dems should target Marchant, who frankly, does nothing.

Huh. I didn’t know Ronaldi was in Marchant’s district. Nice to see a bench here.

Also, to the person who asked if Dems had a path to flip the State House in 2020, there were like 4 agonizingly close losses in Tarrant County alone in the house

I was suspecting that the Democrats would make 2 gains in Texas but at the end they made just one.

They made 2 house seat gains?
a 3rd is in recount although likely hurd.

12 TX State house Gains. 2 State Senate Gains. 2 Congressional pickups.

In one instant, the 2020 Texas state house elections have become the most crucial election redistricting wise, dems only need 7 gains and there are definitely more Beto seats out there looking at the map. Dems get the chamber, and Republicans lose a ton of seats even if the map is only a little bit more fair then present.

I would be shocked if they didn't redraw the lines before 2020.

[lfromnj]

Anyone know if Democrats picked up any legislative seats within Marchant's, McCaul's, Olson's, or Roy's districts? If so, that would be the place to begin looking for 2020 challengers to these guys.

Dems did pick up two state House seats within Williamson County, so there's a D bench in TX-31 now

I live in Marchant's district.  Matt Rinaldi (the member who threatened to put a bullet in someone's head) lost his state house seat and Don Huffines (Ultra rich, Ultra conservative guy who went to Russia in August) lost his state senate seat.  A little perspective on the Dallas area.  In 2012, it was 6 Dems and 8 Reps representing Dallas but now it is 12 Dems and 2 Reps.  I said many times Dems should target Marchant, who frankly, does nothing.

Huh. I didn’t know Ronaldi was in Marchant’s district. Nice to see a bench here.

Also, to the person who asked if Dems had a path to flip the State House in 2020, there were like 4 agonizingly close losses in Tarrant County alone in the house

I was suspecting that the Democrats would make 2 gains in Texas but at the end they made just one.

They made 2 house seat gains?
a 3rd is in recount although likely hurd.

12 TX State house Gains. 2 State Senate Gains. 2 Congressional pickups.

In one instant, the 2020 Texas state house elections have become the most crucial election redistricting wise, dems only need 7 gains and there are definitely more Beto seats out there looking at the map. Dems get the chamber, and Republicans lose a ton of seats even if the map is only a little bit more fair then present.

Yeah Texas state legislature is probably gonna be one of the best investments democrats can do anywhere. I figure there may some backlash in the next 2 years to the legislature now that Joe Straus is gone.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Kind of interesting:

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This is some combination of exit poll error and the fact that people who move from state to state are more likely to be higher income and white than people who don't. And while whites from all over do move to TX, a lot of them come from neighboring states like OK, AR, and LA.

[lfromnj]

So Lupe Valdez despite being a total lol-tier candidate lost by 13 points. Wendy Davis, in comparison, lost by 20 points. Really shows how much Beto helped downballot.

It's also funny when you remember the reactions Beto and Wendy Davis had upon announcing their runs. Wendy Davis was hyped to oblivion as the lady that could begin to transform Texas and maybe even pull off an upset, while Beto was dismissed as a joke. LOL

Yeah probably coz dems got burnt by Wendy Davis 4 years ago. I read the begining of this thread full of Safe and Likely Rs all filled with double digit wins by Ted Cruz. I think from his original expectations Beto's campaign was incredible and I say the WAPO should give him a honorable mention even if he lost in the best candidate. It would seem annoying due to the media attention but  Beto literally rebuilt the texas democratic party starting with a simple car.

[IceSpear]

Not sure if anybody noticed this yet, but...Hays County voted for Lupe Valdez. Seriously. And Fort Bend County only voted for Abbott by 0.3%.

The GOP can kiss these counties goodbye.

[Dr. Arch]

Not sure if anybody noticed this yet, but...Hays County voted for Lupe Valdez. Seriously. And Fort Bend County only voted for Abbott by 0.3%.

The GOP can kiss these counties goodbye.

 

[lfromnj]

Not sure if anybody noticed this yet, but...Hays County voted for Lupe Valdez. Seriously. And Fort Bend County only voted for Abbott by 0.3%.

The GOP can kiss these counties goodbye.

yeah lol I noticed . WTF happened with hays and beto though. ING 17 POINTS SWING in 2 years. ing Austin liberals. I think Lupe Valdez is now basically the floor for any democrat except in R years or going against some moderate heroes like Joe Straus .
I find it funny that everyone says Beto is a loser and Texas is still a red state when its clear in the next dem wave year Texas will go blue.

[Devout Centrist]

Note that Valdez performed the worst out of all the statewide Democrats and still only lost by 13. For contrast, Wendy Davis lost by 20 points in 2014, and Barack Obama lost by 16 in 2012. Valdez almost matched Obama's '08 performance in terms of % of the vote.

This is absolutely unprecedented and Democrats would be wise to pour money into Texas. Even if the state doesn't elect a Democrat statewide, there are so many gains to be made at the local level.

[Snipee356]

Note that Valdez performed the worst out of all the statewide Democrats and still only lost by 13. For contrast, Wendy Davis lost by 20 points in 2014, and Barack Obama lost by 16 in 2012. Valdez almost matched Obama's '08 performance in terms of % of the vote.

This is absolutely unprecedented and Democrats would be wise to pour money into Texas. Even if the state doesn't elect a Democrat statewide, there are so many gains to be made at the local level.

True. It's actually quite possible for the Dems to get a majority (or at least 50%) in the house delegation.

[Calthrina950]

Not sure if anybody noticed this yet, but...Hays County voted for Lupe Valdez. Seriously. And Fort Bend County only voted for Abbott by 0.3%.

The GOP can kiss these counties goodbye.

I've noticed that as well. And Valdez won Harris County as well, which Abbott carried against Davis four years ago. It amazes me how O'Rourke was able to have such a significant effect on every other statewide race, and on scores of local races, in Texas this year. In hindsight, his loss will be viewed as the first step back for the Democrats to being a truly competitive party in Texas.

[libertpaulian]

With the news of Justice Kennedy's retirement, RIP Beto.

See what'd I tell you.

[lfromnj]

With the news of Justice Kennedy's retirement, RIP Beto.

See what'd I tell you.

I doubt that Kavanaugh and scotus had any large effects on the texas senate race overall
Kavanaugh was about a -8 helping in states like MO and IN but in a trump+9 state like Texas it probably only helped Cruz by half a percent.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Awkward

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-smile-for-photo-in-texas-airport

[lfromnj]

Important county flip. its not the largest but the margin was shocking
Trump + 0.5 to Beto +17. It shows how college students finally voted for once due to extended early voting + energized by Beto.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/15/texas-state-students-young-voters-hays-county/

EVEN LUPE VALDEZ WOn this county LOL thats how insane the flip was. Valdez won a Trump county.

[The Mikado]

Note that Valdez performed the worst out of all the statewide Democrats and still only lost by 13. For contrast, Wendy Davis lost by 20 points in 2014, and Barack Obama lost by 16 in 2012. Valdez almost matched Obama's '08 performance in terms of % of the vote.

This is absolutely unprecedented and Democrats would be wise to pour money into Texas. Even if the state doesn't elect a Democrat statewide, there are so many gains to be made at the local level.

Better way to think about it is that Valdez's 13 point loss matches the 13 point loss of Bill White to Perry in 2010, when White was a star recruit and Perry fatigue was real.

[Devout Centrist]

Note that Valdez performed the worst out of all the statewide Democrats and still only lost by 13. For contrast, Wendy Davis lost by 20 points in 2014, and Barack Obama lost by 16 in 2012. Valdez almost matched Obama's '08 performance in terms of % of the vote.

This is absolutely unprecedented and Democrats would be wise to pour money into Texas. Even if the state doesn't elect a Democrat statewide, there are so many gains to be made at the local level.

Better way to think about it is that Valdez's 13 point loss matches the 13 point loss of Bill White to Perry in 2010, when White was a star recruit and Perry fatigue was real.

Oh thank you, that’s far more apt

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How Beto did compared to Hillary in the panhandle and east Texas. Not that great, but managed to make a little inroads into the "urban" areas in the regions, and recovered just a smidge in rural east Texas.

And someone please feel free to check Donley county, that might be an error or something since Beto did far far far better than I expected there.

[lfromnj]

How Beto did compared to Hillary in the panhandle and east Texas. Not that great, but managed to make a little inroads into the "urban" areas in the regions, and recovered just a smidge in rural east Texas.

And someone please feel free to check Donley county, that might be an error or something since Beto did far far far better than I expected there.

not a bad map. Anyway one of the better swings in the hick regions was Lubbock. It swung left more than Texas did.