TX-SEN: True to Form
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Author Topic: TX-SEN: True to Form  (Read 156439 times)
CatoMinor
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« Reply #25 on: March 29, 2017, 08:08:48 PM »

Sad to see Beto O'Rourke retiring from politics.
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houseonaboat
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« Reply #26 on: March 29, 2017, 08:16:55 PM »
« Edited: March 29, 2017, 08:18:47 PM by houseonaboat »

Not that it means much in a state as big as Texas, but Beto O'Rourke is a much better retail politician than any other Democrat in the state.

It looks as if Beto intends to run a Kander-esque campaign as an actually liberal Democrat rather than run to the middle. Like the contrast between him and Trump/Cruz could not be more obvious: this is a guy who literally gave a Ted talk titled "The Border Makes America Great" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXbFZoSMbZI).  I doubt he'll win (like everyone else), but it's good that voters in Texas will have a meaningful choice in 2018.
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Holmes
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« Reply #27 on: March 29, 2017, 08:21:19 PM »

Sad to see Beto O'Rourke retiring from politics.

He gave himself a three term limit either way, so he was going to be gone by 2019 either way. I can see him hamming that up during the campaign and setting term limits for himself again. Voters eat stupid things like that up.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #28 on: March 29, 2017, 08:29:57 PM »

Can't Bork O'Rourke!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #29 on: March 29, 2017, 08:59:38 PM »

Endorsed O'Rourfe 4 Senate, Dina Titus, and Kysten Sinema
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #30 on: March 30, 2017, 09:39:49 AM »

I really don't think he'll win, but at least if any TX Dem could it should be him. But still the Tx dems are the state party that ran with the logic in 2014 "Let's pick the candidate who is literally only known for being for choice in TX!" so I wouldn't put it past them to nominate some annoying activist instead.
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#gravelgang #lessiglad
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« Reply #31 on: March 30, 2017, 11:33:49 AM »

Yeah, I could see O'Rourke hold Cruz to low single digits and lay the groundwork for future Democratic races in this state, but it's really hard to see him winning.

He's probably the strongest Democratic challenger fwiw.

Of the people who will actually run, yes.

The Castro brothers are massively overrated. The best Democratic challenger here is either O'Rourke or someone non-obvious from outside politics.

Completely agree and I just can't understand why Julian Castro (his brother Joaquin does seem more compelling as a candidate) gets so much hype around here.  Someone who fits a "random guy from the middle of nowhere" or "random rich businessman/woman" profile is generally the best option for statewide office in a state that leans strongly to the other party.  A former cabinet official for the last president of the locally disfavored party is just about the worst possible option!

I think the very, very best they could do would be Mark Cuban. He would probably run as an Indie, but with the tacit endorsement of a majority of Texas Dems.

At any rate, I think this will almost surely be within 10 but will also almost surely be a Cruz win.  If Cruz gets successfully primaried by someone close to Trump, though...

Not that it matters any more where a candidate actually resides prior to campaigning (Hollingsworth, Bayh), but does Cuban even live in Texas?
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #32 on: March 30, 2017, 01:24:17 PM »

Yeah, I could see O'Rourke hold Cruz to low single digits and lay the groundwork for future Democratic races in this state, but it's really hard to see him winning.

He's probably the strongest Democratic challenger fwiw.

Of the people who will actually run, yes.

The Castro brothers are massively overrated. The best Democratic challenger here is either O'Rourke or someone non-obvious from outside politics.

Completely agree and I just can't understand why Julian Castro (his brother Joaquin does seem more compelling as a candidate) gets so much hype around here.  Someone who fits a "random guy from the middle of nowhere" or "random rich businessman/woman" profile is generally the best option for statewide office in a state that leans strongly to the other party.  A former cabinet official for the last president of the locally disfavored party is just about the worst possible option!

I think the very, very best they could do would be Mark Cuban. He would probably run as an Indie, but with the tacit endorsement of a majority of Texas Dems.

At any rate, I think this will almost surely be within 10 but will also almost surely be a Cruz win.  If Cruz gets successfully primaried by someone close to Trump, though...

Not that it matters any more where a candidate actually resides prior to campaigning (Hollingsworth, Bayh), but does Cuban even live in Texas?
He owns the Dallas Mavericks so that gives him some vested interest in the state. He also already said if he were to run for office it would be POTUS or bust.
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SCNCmod
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« Reply #33 on: March 30, 2017, 06:20:38 PM »
« Edited: April 04, 2017, 07:08:06 AM by SCNCmod »

I think Joaquin Castro is a much stronger candidate.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #34 on: March 30, 2017, 06:30:31 PM »

He wont win, but maybe he can at least keep Cruz' victory margin down to the upper-single digits. And it could set him up for another run for the Senate or governor down the line when conditions are more favorable for Dems in TX.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #35 on: March 30, 2017, 06:32:16 PM »

Solid R, goodbye competitive Texas chances, only someone like Ivy Taylor could actually be competitive and even then not really.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #36 on: March 30, 2017, 06:58:32 PM »

Why do I feel like he will end up like Wendy Davis.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #37 on: March 30, 2017, 07:41:34 PM »

Why do I feel like he will end up like Wendy Davis.

Because you think he will lose? Yeah no sh!t.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #38 on: March 30, 2017, 07:48:39 PM »

Why do I feel like he will end up like Wendy Davis.

Because you think he will lose? Yeah no sh!t.
I think he means a race that people hyped up but ended up being a landslide
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #39 on: March 30, 2017, 08:05:43 PM »

Solid R, goodbye competitive Texas chances, only someone like Ivy Taylor could actually be competitive and even then not really.

If the House flips and the Dems net 6-10 Govs mansions and its a Democratic tsunami, when the Repeal of Obamacare fails, and the Freedom Caucus loses to the same Blue Dog Dems they defeated in 2010, then O'Rourke will win.

But, we didn't see the GOP wave in Nov, 2016 either.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #40 on: March 30, 2017, 08:25:56 PM »

Solid R, goodbye competitive Texas chances, only someone like Ivy Taylor could actually be competitive and even then not really.

If the House flips and the Dems net 6-10 Govs mansions and its a Democratic tsunami, when the Repeal of Obamacare fails, and the Freedom Caucus loses to the same Blue Dog Dems they defeated in 2010, then O'Rourke will win.

But, we didn't see the GOP wave in Nov, 2016 either.
eh even then I can't see it becoming a tossup
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #41 on: March 30, 2017, 08:28:55 PM »

We shall see
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Vega
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« Reply #42 on: March 30, 2017, 09:13:03 PM »

Should O'Rourke hold Cruz to under ~6 points or so, I would fully expect him to try again for Senate or run for Governor at some point.
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Badger
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« Reply #43 on: March 31, 2017, 12:40:11 AM »

Likely R. Cruz is very unlikely to lose, though I could see his margin getting reduced to something like Trump's.
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« Reply #44 on: March 31, 2017, 06:22:05 AM »

Why do I feel like he will end up like Wendy Davis.

Because you think he will lose? Yeah no sh!t.
I think he means a race that people hyped up but ended up being a landslide

As long as he doesn't explicitly tie his campaign to abortion, he should avoid her fate.
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Shadows
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« Reply #45 on: March 31, 2017, 09:05:14 AM »

He is way better then the boy Castro but the only way Cruz would lose if he is massively damaged in the primary & another Republican runs as an Independent or if Trump tries to incite people against Cruz (which is also possible). Basically you need a faction of the Republican party to screw Cruz like Manchin & others did to Pritt with the "Democrats of Underwood" stuff !

Anyways a 7-8-9% loss is very good & will lay the groundwork for more successes down ballot !
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #46 on: March 31, 2017, 01:04:20 PM »

Godspeed and good luck. He'll need both. I'd love to see him pull it off.
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Adam the Gr8
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« Reply #47 on: March 31, 2017, 07:58:49 PM »

Déjà vu.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #48 on: April 01, 2017, 12:06:25 AM »

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I get the feeling I'm gonna become a very big Beto O'Rourke fan by the end of the year.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #49 on: April 01, 2017, 08:06:39 AM »

There is that 1% chance he flips on some issues and makes the seat competitive.


Well he has been silent on most social issues, indicating that he might.

He does have a good chance, considering the incumbent President isn't a Democrat and Trump believe it or not isn't super popular in Texas. TX has been one of the few red states that has been showing anti-Trump shades. 
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