TX-SEN: True to Form

[RogueBeaver]

Announcing Friday.

[KingSweden]

Likely R, of course. The primary to replace him ought to be interesting

[Holmes]

He's probably the strongest Democratic challenger fwiw.

[BuckeyeNut]

Go, go, Beto, O.!

[publicunofficial]

Solid. I like O'Rourke.

Hot Take: Texas is more likely to flip than Michigan.

[Figueira]

He's probably the strongest Democratic challenger fwiw.

Of the people who will actually run, yes.

[KingSweden]

The primary in TX-16 should get interesting. Joe Moody would make a good Congressman but Is be shocked if we don't get a Hispanic RGV machine Dem

[Skye]

Likely R. Cruz is very unlikely to lose, though I could see his margin getting reduced to something like Trump's.

[Devout Centrist]

The only reason I'm hesitating to rate this Safe R is because Trump is a moron and Cruz doesn't have much crossover appeal (unlike Abbott). I think this will basically be a CA-SEN 2010 redux, though.

Probably, although Cruz is about on par with Fiorina in the campaigning department.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

The only reason I'm hesitating to rate this Safe R is because Trump is a moron and Cruz doesn't have much crossover appeal (unlike Abbott). I think this will basically be a CA-SEN 2010 redux, though.

Probably, although Cruz is about on par with Fiorina in the campaigning department.

Bad campaigners tend to win these days anyway. Case in point, the Trump/Clinton/Johnson/Stein race.

[Vosem]

Yeah, I could see O'Rourke hold Cruz to low single digits and lay the groundwork for future Democratic races in this state, but it's really hard to see him winning.

He's probably the strongest Democratic challenger fwiw.

Of the people who will actually run, yes.

The Castro brothers are massively overrated. The best Democratic challenger here is either O'Rourke or someone non-obvious from outside politics.

[windjammer]

I would be happy if he could lose by less than 10 points.

[Figueira]

Anyway, I agree with those calling it Likely R. I wouldn't be shocked if it's clearly Safe R by election day though.

[badgate]

This is good.

[JerryArkansas]

Good on him for actually sticking to his three-term limit, unlike most Republicans who make the same pledge.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Good on him for actually sticking to his three-term limit, unlike most Republicans who make the same pledge.

While you are right that every single Republican politician who talks about term limits breaks their promise, how is moving up to a higher office whose term is as long as his entire Congressional career to this point keeping a promise?

[Xing]

Well, I guess you can't catch a wave without a surfboard. Still hard to see him doing better than a 5-6% loss, though.

[Anna Komnene]

He doesn't strike me as the kind of Democrat that usually wins in a red state, but still might be able to at least give Cruz a run for his money.

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While you are right that every single Republican politician who talks about term limits breaks their promise, how is moving up to a higher office whose term is as long as his entire Congressional career to this point keeping a promise?
[/quote]

If term limits actually existed for the House, they wouldn't prevent a Rep from running for Senate or any other office afterward.

[BuckeyeNut]

Yeah, I could see O'Rourke hold Cruz to low single digits and lay the groundwork for future Democratic races in this state, but it's really hard to see him winning.

He's probably the strongest Democratic challenger fwiw.

Of the people who will actually run, yes.

The Castro brothers are massively overrated. The best Democratic challenger here is either O'Rourke or someone non-obvious from outside politics.

Joaquin seems underrated, if anything.

[JerryArkansas]

Good on him for actually sticking to his three-term limit, unlike most Republicans who make the same pledge.

While you are right that every single Republican politician who talks about term limits breaks their promise, how is moving up to a higher office whose term is as long as his entire Congressional career to this point keeping a promise?

Because it specifically applies to the House, the pledge doesn't mention the Senate at all.

[Indy Texas]

Good on him for actually sticking to his three-term limit, unlike most Republicans who make the same pledge.

I found the fact that he made that pledge very odd to begin with, since it was stereotypically something that post-1994 "grassroots conservative" Republicans do.

[Vosem]

Ivy Taylor is another example of an underrated Texas Democratic politician who might play well statewide, actually. Though, again, 2018 is too early for an actual win, I think.

[publicunofficial]

Reminder that O'Rourke got into Congress by running on marijuana legalization.

[Anna Komnene]

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah, I could see O'Rourke hold Cruz to low single digits and lay the groundwork for future Democratic races in this state, but it's really hard to see him winning.

He's probably the strongest Democratic challenger fwiw.

Of the people who will actually run, yes.

The Castro brothers are massively overrated. The best Democratic challenger here is either O'Rourke or someone non-obvious from outside politics.

Completely agree and I just can't understand why Julian Castro (his brother Joaquin does seem more compelling as a candidate) gets so much hype around here.  Someone who fits a "random guy from the middle of nowhere" or "random rich businessman/woman" profile is generally the best option for statewide office in a state that leans strongly to the other party.  A former cabinet official for the last president of the locally disfavored party is just about the worst possible option!

I think the very, very best they could do would be Mark Cuban. He would probably run as an Indie, but with the tacit endorsement of a majority of Texas Dems.

At any rate, I think this will almost surely be within 10 but will also almost surely be a Cruz win.  If Cruz gets successfully primaried by someone close to Trump, though...