TX-SEN: True to Form

[Hindsight was 2020]

Im sorry but Trump at 60% disapproval an the reps are going to come close to winning 7 senate seats?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Im sorry but Trump at 60% disapproval an the reps are going to come close to winning 7 senate seats?

The American people view the Democratic Party AND the Republican Party both at 40% approval rating. In the end, the turnout will be depressed. The Bernie-bros, the young and minority voters, etc, will not turn out for a midterm and the Republicans likely loose only one seat in the Senate and a handful in the House.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Im sorry but Trump at 60% disapproval an the reps are going to come close to winning 7 senate seats?

The American people view the Democratic Party AND the Republican Party both at 40% approval rating. In the end, the turnout will be depressed. The Bernie-bros, the young and minority voters, etc, will not turn out for a midterm and the Republicans likely loose only one seat in the Senate and a handful in the House.

I remember dems making arguments like that for 2014 and look how that went.  Dude midterms are bad for the power in power accepting that now would be wise

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.

No? There are only two seats the Democrats can take, max. The Senate isn't going to be in play, and even if they do tie the Senate, it'd be 50-50. You also forget that Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp, and perhaps even Bill Nelson, are in greater trouble than Cruz.

Most importantly too even if all dems hold on AND nevada and arizona flip, there is Mike Pence. Still GOP control.

[Pollster]

Texas may remain slightly out of reach for Dems in 2018 but should still 100% be contested at every level - strong candidates at the top of the ticket mixed with a powerful enough wave could have results down the ballot.

[Kingpoleon]

Cesar Blanco, Mary Gonzalez, Joe Moody, Evelina Ortega, and Joe Pickett are the state representatives who will be under 70 in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.

No? There are only two seats the Democrats can take, max. The Senate isn't going to be in play, and even if they do tie the Senate, it'd be 50-50. You also forget that Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp, and perhaps even Bill Nelson, are in greater trouble than Cruz.

The map is so bad for Dems I'd add Tester, Brown, and maaaaybe Baldwin. But, the bottom line is, arguing with a troll is a waste of time.

Well, Ted Cruz won't have an easy reelection.  I doubt Dems lose more than 2 seats.  Obama had a rough 2010 and Dems lost 50 House seats and 7 seats.  Dems want to return that favor since we don't have the SCOTUS.

[TheSaint250]

If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.

No? There are only two seats the Democrats can take, max. The Senate isn't going to be in play, and even if they do tie the Senate, it'd be 50-50. You also forget that Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp, and perhaps even Bill Nelson, are in greater trouble than Cruz.

The map is so bad for Dems I'd add Tester, Brown, and maaaaybe Baldwin. But, the bottom line is, arguing with a troll is a waste of time.

Well, Ted Cruz won't have an easy reelection.  I doubt Dems lose more than 2 seats.  Obama had a rough 2010 and Dems lost 50 House seats and 7 seats.  Dems want to return that favor since we don't have the SCOTUS.

Yes he will

[Stranger in a strange land]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

That could be a winning strategy. It'd make him look so nakedly partisan too, and it'd get him to come out and whine "leave Heidi the hell alone!" or something.

[KingSweden]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

Just me, but if anyone said one tenth about my wife what Trump said about Cruz's, I would have leapt across the stage in blind rage

Ted Cruz is a coward

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I would just give up. Don't believe any out of state commies. I was born and raised in Texas, and have lived here my entire life. And I am here to say that Texas will start to become competitive around ten years from now, and maybe would tilt D twenty years from now. But now is too early. Cruz will win most probably with a margin in the lower to mid 10s. This race is not competitive, look elsewhere for now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ORourke isn't gonna give up and in a neutral environment, the state won't be in play. But, its a Democratic year and he can have his chance.

[KingSweden]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I would just give up. Don't believe any out of state commies. I was born and raised in Texas, and have lived here my entire life. And I am here to say that Texas will start to become competitive around ten years from now, and maybe would tilt D twenty years from now. But now is too early. Cruz will win most probably with a margin in the lower to mid 10s. This race is not competitive, look elsewhere for now.

Looks like you spoke too soon, Da-Jon has spoken

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

ORourke isn't gonna give up and in a neutral environment, the state won't be in play. But, its a Democratic year and he can have his chance.

Fair point.

[Anna Komnene]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I would just give up. Don't believe any out of state commies. I was born and raised in Texas, and have lived here my entire life. And I am here to say that Texas will start to become competitive around ten years from now, and maybe would tilt D twenty years from now. But now is too early. Cruz will win most probably with a margin in the lower to mid 10s. This race is not competitive, look elsewhere for now.

If you want Texas to become competitive sometime down the road, giving up isn't the way to do it.  Opposition parties don't just magically start winning elections.  Those kinds of things need to be built up over time, and part of that building is by getting people more excited about voting in elections even if they lose in the end.  It's also about getting people to consider your party.  If get a voter to even consider your party when they wouldn't have in the past, that's a win.  They might make a different decision next time.  If you can make the election closer, that gives other people a reason to jump in for the next election too and so on and so on.  Yeah, there are states and districts where it's incredibly hard for the opposition to win, but it's not just because of demographics and gerrymandering.  It's also because, a lot of times, the opposition doesn't really try that hard.

[Badger]

If everything goes the Democrats way on election night, AZ and TX will be the states to watch.  Because there is a likely turnover in the House now.

The GOP are still favored, but a wave can wash over the Senate.

No? There are only two seats the Democrats can take, max. The Senate isn't going to be in play, and even if they do tie the Senate, it'd be 50-50. You also forget that Manchin, McCaskill, and Heitkamp, and perhaps even Bill Nelson, are in greater trouble than Cruz.

Replace Nelson with Tester, and you're right

That is baring dues ex machina (a major scandal or death), or Roy Moore winning the AL GOP primary runoff. In the latter case if Democrats nominate a decent candidate, they have a shot. Still less than 50/50, but probably better than O'Rourke.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

O'Rourke is in a good position to have an upset victory.  Last year, Toomey was down in every single poll up to election day and he had less than 50% of victory and came back and won due to the red wave. 

[BuckeyeNut]

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I'd hit Cruz hard about being so slavishly loyal to Trump after Trump humiliated him and insulted his wife during the campaign. That's not Family Values and it's not Texas Values.

If I were running O'Rourke's campaign, I would just give up. Don't believe any out of state commies. I was born and raised in Texas, and have lived here my entire life. And I am here to say that Texas will start to become competitive around ten years from now, and maybe would tilt D twenty years from now. But now is too early. Cruz will win most probably with a margin in the lower to mid 10s. This race is not competitive, look elsewhere for now.

If you want Texas to become competitive sometime down the road, giving up isn't the way to do it.  Opposition parties don't just magically start winning elections.  Those kinds of things need to be built up over time, and part of that building is by getting people more excited about voting in elections even if they lose in the end.  It's also about getting people to consider your party.  If get a voter to even consider your party when they wouldn't have in the past, that's a win.  They might make a different decision next time.  If you can make the election closer, that gives other people a reason to jump in for the next election too and so on and so on.  Yeah, there are states and districts where it's incredibly hard for the opposition to win, but it's not just because of demographics and gerrymandering.  It's also because, a lot of times, the opposition doesn't really try that hard.

Excellent post.

[The Mikado]

Siren is basically right. O'Rourke isn't going to win...but winning isn't the point of this exercise this time. If he holds Cruz to a 6-8 point win, that's huge by itself and a sign that Texas statewide officials can no longer cruise comfortably to reelection but have to actually work for it. There's a big difference between a Texas where Romney wins by 17 and a Texas where Trump wins by 9.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Siren is basically right. O'Rourke isn't going to win...but winning isn't the point of this exercise this time. If he holds Cruz to a 6-8 point win, that's huge by itself and a sign that Texas statewide officials can no longer cruise comfortably to reelection but have to actually work for it. There's a big difference between a Texas where Romney wins by 17 and a Texas where Trump wins by 9.

Actually 8.99 that was the funniest part, I use it in my points to this day. When people say Trump dominated in Texas, I say he could not even win by 9 points XD.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Siren is basically right. O'Rourke isn't going to win...but winning isn't the point of this exercise this time. If he holds Cruz to a 6-8 point win, that's huge by itself and a sign that Texas statewide officials can no longer cruise comfortably to reelection but have to actually work for it. There's a big difference between a Texas where Romney wins by 17 and a Texas where Trump wins by 9.

Actually 8.99 that was the funniest part, I use it in my points to this day. When people say Trump dominated in Texas, I say he could not even win by 9 points XD.

Plus a big, statewide campaign will do a lot to train in-state operatives and build in-state infrastructure.

[Kingpoleon]

I wish McCaul, or better yet, Ross Perot Jr. would primary him.

[Kamala]

Hypothetically, how would Former Admiral and Chancellor of the UT system William McRaven do if he ran?

[Mike Thick]

Hypothetically, how would Former Admiral and Chancellor of the UT system William McRaven do if he ran?

I'm very skeptical of whether McRaven actually has political ambitions, but a well-respected former military official with a fairly inspiring personal story would be great for a state like Texas.