How does Trump win Reelection less than 40% Job Approval (Maps?)

[Sorenroy]

Today marks the third day in a row that Trump has been below 40% job approval in Gallup's daily tracking poll. While that doesn't necessarily mean that he will stay below 40% for the rest of his presidency, it marks a continued fall from his "honeymoon" of the mid 40 percents that he held immediately after taking the office. So... how does Trump win reelection less than 40% job approval? What does the map look like?

The only way I see this happening is if he runs against an unpopular opponent and pushes toward the center. In this way he might lose approval from hardcore conservatives, but gain support amongst moderates who do not support the Democratic side. Without a viable conservative third party Trump would keep the (reluctant) support on the far right while gaining support in the center.


For reference here is the two way map with a universal 6(ish)¹ point swing and the actual two way results from the last election:

Hillary Clinton — 350 EV (54%)
Donald Trump — 188 EV (46%)

Donald Trump — 306 EV (49%)
Hillary Clinton — 232 EV (51%)

¹The six point swing comes from this (and similar) comments:

For an elected incumbent running for re-election as Governor or Senator one can typically add an average of 6% or 7% to his approval rating at the start of the campaign season and get his share of the non-Third Party/Independent vote in a binary election against the average challenger.

[DPKdebator]

That is not a universal 6% R swing, that would look like this:

Trump - 350 EV
Clinton - 188 EV

[Sorenroy]

That is not a universal 6% R swing, that would look like this:
-snip-

I meant a universal 6% Democratic swing in the two way results, which is what the map shows.

[Adam Griffin]

The same way he won the first time, substituting "likability/favorability" ratings for "job approval" ratings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Democrat 266
Trump 235
Tossup 37 (only need Iowa, Virginia or Ohio to win)

[pbrower2a]

There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

[Inmate Trump]

There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

ding ding ding!

....the way he won the first time, no doubt.

[mencken]

There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

ding ding ding!

....the way he won the first time, no doubt.

Getting the Russians to hack into all those paper ballots in Michigan?

[Inmate Trump]

There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

ding ding ding!

....the way he won the first time, no doubt.

Getting the Russians to hack into all those paper ballots in Michigan?

Another denier of Russian interference.

And no, I don't mean the vote count itself being rigged. But Russia certainly did interfere in some way in order to elect Trump and defeat Clinton, whether you choose to believe our intelligence agencies or not.

[Rjjr77]

depends WHERE the disapproval is.
If hes at 10% approval in  California, Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, Maryland, Connecticut, Illinois and Oregon, but over 50% in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, thats all he needs...

[Reaganfan]

There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

ding ding ding!

....the way he won the first time, no doubt.

Getting the Russians to hack into all those paper ballots in Michigan?

Another denier of Russian interference.

And no, I don't mean the vote count itself being rigged. But Russia certainly did interfere in some way in order to elect Trump and defeat Clinton, whether you choose to believe our intelligence agencies or not.

OR it was white voters shunning Democrats due to their exasperation at stressing diversity and cultural identity politics.

[mencken]

There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

ding ding ding!

....the way he won the first time, no doubt.

Getting the Russians to hack into all those paper ballots in Michigan?

Another denier of Russian interference.

And no, I don't mean the vote count itself being rigged. But Russia certainly did interfere in some way in order to elect Trump and defeat Clinton, whether you choose to believe our intelligence agencies or not.

Russia rigged the election in the same way that the leaker of the Billy Bush tape rigged the election.

[Person Man]

There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

ding ding ding!

....the way he won the first time, no doubt.

Getting the Russians to hack into all those paper ballots in Michigan?

Another denier of Russian interference.

And no, I don't mean the vote count itself being rigged. But Russia certainly did interfere in some way in order to elect Trump and defeat Clinton, whether you choose to believe our intelligence agencies or not.

40
OR it was white voters shunning Democrats due to their exasperation at stressing diversity and cultural identity politics.

Just like how in 2004 Bush won because Kerry and Daschle were "too socially liberal" or how Romney and McConnell lost in 2012 because they were "too white". I would say about 70-80% of the electorate is directly and effectively pandered to on "identity politics". Maybe what's left after that votes strictly out of self-interest.

[pbrower2a]

There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

ding ding ding!

....the way he won the first time, no doubt.

Getting the Russians to hack into all those paper ballots in Michigan?

President Trump can get no more than about 45% of the popular vote should his approval rating be below 40%. Add six to the approval rating (here no higher than 39%) and assume an average campaigner as an incumbent President against an undistinguished challenger, and you get his split of the popular vote. That is enough simply to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin alone. Democrats will not take those three states for granted. That is how a free election works when there is no meaningful split of the opposition to the incumbent President.

So how does Trump win with less than 39% approval in an election? He gets an unfair advantage. Almost every big business and government agency has meetings before the election and warns people that if they fail to vote a straight Republican ticket, then they will be fired and blacklisted. State officials have been ensuring that President Trump gets the landslide margins that he  wants.

Within a few months the USA is a travesty of what it was in the good times.

No April Fool stuff here. This is deadly serious, with America becoming the sort of place that people want to leave. 

[Person Man]

There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

ding ding ding!

....the way he won the first time, no doubt.

Getting the Russians to hack into all those paper ballots in Michigan?

President Trump can get no more than about 45% of the popular vote should his approval rating be below 40%. Add six to the approval rating (here no higher than 39%) and assume an average campaigner as an incumbent President against an undistinguished challenger, and you get his split of the popular vote. That is enough simply to flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin alone. Democrats will not take those three states for granted. That is how a free election works when there is no meaningful split of the opposition to the incumbent President.

So how does Trump win with less than 39% approval in an election? He gets an unfair advantage. Almost every big business and government agency has meetings before the election and warns people that if they fail to vote a straight Republican ticket, then they will be fired and blacklisted. State officials have been ensuring that President Trump gets the landslide margins that he  wants.

Within a few months the USA is a travesty of what it was in the good times.

No April Fool stuff here. This is deadly serious, with America becoming the sort of place that people want to leave. 

Where would they go? I guess we will continue to see if the rest of the world continues to stand down from Pepeism and that we can't just go to having a post-Apocalypse dystopia without actually having a bonifide Apocalypse. 

But seriously. The only way Trump wins without getting above where he normally polls 38-43% is that the rest of the vote to stick for there to be record low turnout with all the "missing voters" coming from "hard to organize" D-friendly subcultures and demographics. Either that or there really is no election.

I would say, at this rate, given business as usual, the best he can do is that he keeps Florida and Pennsylvania, does a little better in the PV, but still loses.

Generic Democrat about as good as Kerry or Romney, maybe Gore 49.7%
Donald Trump 49.0%

At this rate, he probably does about as well as he was supposed to do against Hillary with
no significant 3rd party-

At either rate, I think Trump will probably just fall short of Colorado on his best run and be able to squeak by in Texas on his worst.

[Skill and Chance]

A reverse 1912 scenario:

Trump/Pence 39%, Booker/Cooper 29%, Sanders-endorsed Independent 27%, Mormon Neocon Independent 5%

[Devout Centrist]

There are three ways for Donald Trump to win re-election with less-than-40% job approval:

1. that the Democrat comes off even more reckless, incompetent, corrupt, extreme, or otherwise objectionable

2. that Democrats find themselves splintered between the official nominee and a strong alternative

3. a rigged election

 

ding ding ding!

....the way he won the first time, no doubt.

Getting the Russians to hack into all those paper ballots in Michigan?

Another denier of Russian interference.

And no, I don't mean the vote count itself being rigged. But Russia certainly did interfere in some way in order to elect Trump and defeat Clinton, whether you choose to believe our intelligence agencies or not.

OR it was white voters shunning Democrats due to their exasperation at stressing diversity and cultural identity politics.

I've said it a thousand times Naso, you're not getting your own country

[Chinggis]

Democrats make impressive gains in the 2018 midterms. The primary, obviously, is a clown car with over 20 declared candidates. (Trump is challenged from the right by a TRUE CONSERVATIVE who gets humiliated- think Nixon over Ashbrook in 1972) Ultimately, a white male progressive like Jeff Merkley loses out to a combination of identity politics and Goldman Sachs $$$, personified in Cory Booker ("Obama 2.0!"). Furious progressives stay home or vote third-party in 2016-esque numbers or higher; working-class whites stay home or vote Trump, with a not-insignificant third-party vote. President Trump does the impossible- again- and wins reelection with a Republican Congress.

The best part is, you know the Democratic elite would be shocked!

[DPKdebator]

Democrats make impressive gains in the 2018 midterms. The primary, obviously, is a clown car with over 20 declared candidates. (Trump is challenged from the right by a TRUE CONSERVATIVE who gets humiliated- think Nixon over Ashbrook in 1972) Ultimately, a white male progressive like Jeff Merkley loses out to a combination of identity politics and Goldman Sachs $$$, personified in Cory Booker ("Obama 2.0!"). Furious progressives stay home or vote third-party in 2016-esque numbers or higher; working-class whites stay home or vote Trump, with a not-insignificant third-party vote. President Trump does the impossible- again- and wins reelection with a Republican Congress.

The best part is, you know the Democratic elite would be shocked!

Making significant gains in the 2018 midterms is an uphill battle for Democrats. They have to defend almost three times as many seats as the Republicans do.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump stands a good chance at re-election if he runs against John Edwards.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems don't have to do much, WI, PA and MI are reliably blue states and they will reaffirm that in 2018 when Baldwin, Casey, and Stebanow are reelected Senators. Get Iowa, Ohio or VA and Dems will win.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Some out of touch lying neoliberal hawk as the Democratic nominee will do the trick.

[Beet]

Some out of touch lying neoliberal hawk as the Democratic nominee will do the trick.

The doves will turn out en masse for Trump after he nukes North Korea.

[American2020]

I made prediction in which Donald Trump would receive 40% of popular votes, he'd lose 6% from 2016.

This is the map if he'd receive 40% of popular votes.



I consider he'd lose Utah to an independant candidate.

[President Johnson]

With a weak or too divisive Democratic nominee, it is still possible. Same map as in 2016, with Michigan and Maine flipped. Trump loses popular vote again 48.2% to 49.6%.