Who should be included in early 2020 Democratic primary polls?

[Mr. Morden]

How should pollsters do early polls of the 2020 Democratic nomination race?

Maybe your answer would be “They shouldn’t be polling the race yet, because it’s too early for such polls to mean anything.”

But let’s say you’re a consultant for one of the major TV networks, and they tell you that they want to do a poll of Democrats for their 2020 presidential primary preference, even though it’s only 2017.  We got 2016 polls back in 2013, and we’re already getting 2020 polls in 2017, so this is inevitable I’m afraid.

Given that there are about 30 different names being floated as potential candidates, you have to make some choices about who gets included as an option in the poll and who doesn’t.  30 choices just isn’t feasible for a poll.  12 or 13 is about the max. you ever see in these polls, and most of them are fewer than that.  So which potential candidates would you include?

And are there any options that you would treat differently?  E.g., you might think that Biden and Sanders *might* run, but they probably won’t, and if they do run they suck up a lot of support in the poll.  So do you try to include a separate question like “If Joe Biden doesn’t run, who would you pick?”  Or maybe just ask a generic 2nd choice question for everyone?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, if no one else is going to bite, here are my suggestions.  I guess at least some pollsters were polling up to 13 candidates on the GOP side four years ago:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170072.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=169420.0

so you could easily do the same on the Dem. side this time.  So what about a list like this to include in such a poll?:

Biden*
Booker
Bullock
Castro
Cuomo
Franken
Gillibrand
Harris
Klobuchar
Murphy
O’Malley
Sanders*
Warren

with *s for Biden and Sanders because you’d also include a “Who would you vote for if they didn’t run?” option.

[heatcharger]

Your list is fine, although I would add an asterisk to Warren since I don't she will end up running. Personally, I would like to see Kander polled in Iowa since I want him to win, but I can see why he wouldn't be.

[The Other Castro]

For a Biden/Bernie-less poll:

McAuliffe
Booker
Bullock
Castro
Cuomo
Schultz
Gillibrand
Harris
Klobuchar
Murphy
O’Malley
Hickenlooper
Warren

[PPT Spiral]

Clinton
Sanders
Biden
Warren
Cuomo
Booker
O'Malley
Gillibrand
Castro
Harris
Klobuchar
Schultz
Cuban

[Liberalrocks]

Clinton
Sanders*
Biden*
Warren
Cuomo
Murphy
Booker
O'Malley
Gillibrand
Castro
Harris
Klobuchar
Cuban

[John Dule]

There are actually people willing to vote for Oprah to be president out there. Enough, at least, for her to be featured as a possible candidate on Wikipedia's page for the 2020 election.

Oprah. President. Kinda takes your breath away, doesn't it?

[SCNCmod]

Clinton
Sanders
Biden
Warren
Booker
Sherrod Brown
Gillibrand
Castro
Cuban

[Mr. Morden]

It is kind of funny how O'Malley is being by far the most obvious about his presidential intentions (three trips to Iowa since election day, and an upcoming trip to South Carolina), yet he hasn't been included in any of the polls we've seen so far, except the one conducted by his own PAC.  And it's not like he's a no-name who no one's ever heard of before.  I'm guessing that his 2016 run raised his profile enough that he's got at least slightly better name recognition than Kirsten Gillibrand, for example.

But the national media seems to be oblivious to him, for whatever reason.

[Shadows]

Jeff Merkley, the most awesome Senator after Bernie today - Went against a hostile Morning Joe & owned the damn panel, arguing about restoring the sanctity of the SC by re-nominating Garland, Gorsuch's horrible view on the Truck Driver case. He destroyed McCaskill's ridiculous point about the danger of the nuclear option

Merkley above Warren in 2020 if Bernie doesn't run !

Video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dltMUt65MFo