The True North Master Thread

[MAINEiac4434]

The True North:

After years of the status quo in politics, what will become of Canada in the 90s?

List of Canadian Prime Ministers:

Brian Mulroney (Progressive Conservative Majority): September 17, 1984 - June 25, 1993
Jean Charest (Progressive Conservative Majority): June 25, 1993 - November 4, 1993
Sheila Copps (Liberal Majority, then Minority): November 4, 1993 - April 9, 2002
Jack Layton (New Democratic Majority): April 9, 2002 - August 22, 2011
Bill Blaikie (interim, New Democratic Majority): August 22, 2011 - January 19, 2012 (acting: July 25, 2011 - August 22, 2011)
Nathan Cullen (New Democratic Majority): January 19, 2012 -

Intro:

This TL begins at the New Democratic Party Leadership Election of 1989, just a year after the 1988 election. In the original race Audrey McLaughlin won the leadership, but in this world, left-winger Steven W. Langdon does. We will be following the main leadership races of the five (and perhaps more) parties, referendums and general elections, and see how things develop until the present time.

List of Progressive Conservative Leaders:

The Right Honourable Brian Mulroney, MP for Centeal Nova then Manicouagan then Charlevoix: 1983 - 1993
The Right Honourable Jean Charest, MP for Sherbrooke: 1993 - 1995
The Honourable Kim Campbell, MP for Vancouver Centre (interim): 1995 - 1996
The Right Honourable Joe Clark, MP for Kings-Hants then Calgary Centre: 1996 - 1998
Elsie Wayne, MP for Saint John (interim): 1998 - 2000
Jim Prentice, no seat: 2000 - 2001
The Right Honourable Joe Clark, MP for Calgary Centre (interim): 2001 - 2002
André Bachand, MP for Richmond-Arthabaska (interim): 2002 - 2007
Party dissolved

List of Liberal Leaders:

The Right Honourable John Turner, MP for Vancouver Quadra: 1984 - 1990
The Honourable Herb Gray, MP for Windsor West (interim): 1990
The Right Honourable Sheila Copps, MP for Hamilton East: 1990 - 2002
Brian Tobin, MP for Bonavista-Trinity-Conception (interim): 2002 - 2004
Ken Dryden, MP for York Centre: 2004 - 2007
Martha Hall Findlay, MP for Willowdale (interim): 2007 - 2008
Scott Brison, no seat, then MP for Etobicoke North: 2008 -

List of New Democratic Leaders:

Ed Broadbent, MP for Oshawa: 1975 - 1989
Steven Langdon, MP for Essex-Windsor: 1989 - 1998
Bob Rae, MP for Toronto Centre (interim): 1998 - 1999
The Right Honourable Jack Layton, MP for Toronto-Danforth: 1999 - 2011
The Right Honourable Bill Blaikie, MP for Elmwood-Transcona (interim): 2011 - 2012
The Right Honourable Nathan Cullen, MP for Skeena-Bulkley Valley: 2012 -

List of Reform Leaders:

The Hobourable Preston Manning, no seat, then MP for Calgary Southwest: 1987 - 2002
The Honourable Deborah Grey, MP for Edmonton North (interim): 2002 - 2003
The Honourable Stockwell Day, MP for Okanagan-Coquihalla: 2003 - 2007
Party dissolved

List of Bloc Québécois Leaders:

Lucien Bouchard, MP for Lac-Saint-Jean: 1991 - 1994
Francine Lalonde, MP for Mercier: 1994 - 2007
Gilles Duceppe, MP for Laurier-Sainte-Marie (interim): 2007 - 2009
Roger Gaudet, former MP for Montcalm: 2009 -

List of Conservative Leaders:
The Honourable Mark Steyn, no seat, then MP for Calgary East: 2007 - 2012
The Honourable Stephen Harper (interim), MP for Calgary Heritage: 2012 - 2013
The Honourable Kellie Leitch, MP for Simcoe-Grey: 2013 -

[MAINEiac4434]

New Democratic Party Leadership Election, 1989:

Steven Langdon is taking his party to the hard left

First Ballot:

Steven W. Langdon: 883
Dave Barrett: 631
Audrey McLaughlin: 506
Simon De Jong: 252
Howard McCurdy: 127

The 1989 New Democratic Party Leadership Election was launched after Ed Broadbent, the most successful leader in party history, decided to retire after his party's best showing in the 1988 election. Entering the election was committed social democrat (and therefore from the moderate wing of the party) Audrey McLaughlin, the early favorite. Dave Barrett, the former British Columbia premier, soon launched his own bid, to appeal to the activist wing of the party. Other candidates included Simon De Jong, Howard McCurdy and the hardline socialist Steven Langdon. To the shock of everyone in the NDP, early favorite McLaughlin finished third behind Barrett and Langdon.

Second Ballot:

Steven W. Langdon: 1,370
Dave Barrett: 1,030

Despite Barrett popularity in the party's western Canadian base, the grassroots of the party, such as the socialist caucus, wanted the party to move further to the left than it was under Broadbent. For that reason, Barrett was unappealing to many McLaughlin delegates, and they rallied around Langdon. Despite endorsements for Barrett from McLaughlin herself (and the tacit endorsement of Broadbent himelf) and threats from the Canadian Labour Congress delegates of walking out, the party found itself being led by Langdon after the first ballot. Two-dozen of those who opposed Langdon's radicalism staged a walkout, but they were vastly outnumbered by the Barrett delegates who stayed in support of their new leader. Many, however, had questions about how their hard turn to the left would impact the next election.

[MAINEiac4434]

Liberal Party of Canada leadership election, 1990:

Sheila Copps moves the Liberal Party in a new direction.

First Ballot:
Sheila Copps: 2,138
Tom Wappel: 1,172
Jean Chrétien: 975

After John Turner led the party to and subsequently from the brink, it was obvious he had no interest in leading the party into a third election. He retired in 1990, with many thinking longtime "leader in waiting" Jean Chrétien's election to the leadership only a formality. Despite a crowded field with left-wing candidates like Sheila Copps and John Nunziata, right-wingers like Tom Wappel and another centrist Paul Martin, many believed that Chrétien would win on the frst ballot.

It was not to be.

Seeing the NDP move to the hard-left awoke some of the social democratic wing of the Liberals, who rallied behind Sheila Copps. Right-wingers in the party chose Tom Wappel, with money pouring in from the pro-life movement, and he was able to sneak above Chrétien in the balloting. It was a shock to the entire party, but one Copps quickly played to her advantage. She grabbed Chrétien's endorsement and figured she'd coast to the leadership on the second ballot.

Second Ballot:

Sheila Copps: 2,349
Tom Wappel: 2,339

Centrists, upset with Copps' highly critical campaign against Chrétien and Martin, rallied around Wappel, thinking they could wrest control of the party from him after a few months of his leadership. Despite Chrétien's strong backing of Copps, she limped into the leadership, with just 10 votes to spare. Still, she was able to craft the party's platform around her policies of environmentalism, labour rights (hoping to gain an endorsement from the now non-NDP Canadian Labour Congress) women's rights and LGBT rights. Wappel and his delegates were given no policy concessions at Copps' and newly-minted deputy leader Chrétien's insistence.

[MAINEiac4434]

Progressive Conservative Party of Canada leadership election, 1993:

Jean Charest leads a fractured, unpopular party into the federal election.

First Ballot:
Jean Charest: 1,155
Kim Campbell: 669
Garth Turner: 650
Jim Edwards: 648

Despite Campbell's popularity, she had trouble whipping her votes and limped into a weak second place, just ahead of Turner and Edwards and well behind Charest for the second ballot.

Charest and Campbell after Charest's victory and Campbell's unanimous selection as Deputy Leader.

Second Ballot:

Jean Charest: 2,543
Kim Campbell: 927

The second ballot was a mere formality. Charest had all the momentum, and beat Campbell in a landslide. Ever the gentleman, Charest's first formal act as PC leader (and Prime Minister) was to formally nominate Campbell for the role of Deputy Leader (and, thus, Deputy Prime Minister), which was unanimously accepted by the convention. Some thought it was merely rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

[MAINEiac4434]

Canadian Federal Election, 1993

Copps, elated the day after the election

Liberal Party: 167 (+84)
Progressive Conservative Party: 45 (-111)
New Democratic Party: 35 (-9)
Reform Party: 30 (+28)
Bloc Quebecois: 18 (+8)

With the recession worsening every day, the country was drawn to Copps' radical approach. Her social democratic policies were popular in the Maritimes, Ontario and Quebec, while it totally cratered their vote in western Canada (the Liberals finished third in three of the four provinces west of Ontario). The Liberals more than doubled their seats, and Copps became Canada's first female Prime Minister. The Bloquistes finished second in Quebec, gaining eight seats. The NDP broke 20% in the province, but didn't send an MP to Ottawa.

Reform swept the west, while doing nothing east of Manitoba. It finished first in seats in Alberta and votes in British Columbia (though the NDP held control of the province).

In the ultimate display of the fickleness of the first past the post system, the NDP finished second in total votes but lost nine seats and didn't even get to form Official Opposition. The PCs lost 111 seats to finish well behind the Liberals, while barely clinging to Official Opposition status. Still, Steven Langdon had silenced his party's critics and was to lead the party in the next general election by actually increasing the NDP's percentage of the total vote. Charest, however, was under siege from day one of the Copps ministry, with PCs from his right and left looking to take the party away from him. Reform was beginning to lay the groundwork of a potential merger, but because Charest was Opposition Leader, any hopes of uniting under Reform's principles were minimal. Still, the daggers came out at the 1995 Progressive Conservative convention, and Charest faced a potential leadership review. Bouchard, frustrated after the Bloquistes failed to become the largest party in the province (and, embarrassingly, finishing second to the radically federalist Liberals), resigned his leadership to take the role of leader of the provincial Quebecois nationalist party, Parti Quebecois. Langdon and Manning hung on, for now.

I'll do the die rolls after the BQ and Tory leadership is settled.

[MAINEiac4434]

Bloc Québécois Leadership Election, 1994

Francine Lalonde, taking the Bloc to the left

After Lucien Bouchard's somewhat surprising decision to retire from federal politics to focus his sovereigntist efforts at the provincial level, the Bloc was split down the middle between Francine Lalonde, the trade unionist, leftist candidate, and Michel Gauthier, the Bouchardiste, a conservative sovereigntist. Gauthier received most of the establishment support, while trade unions and students rallied around Lalonde. Lalonde was never really considered to have a shot.

Francine Lalonde: 91 delegates
Michel Gauthier: 64 delegates

In a shocking turn of events, the delegates picked the leftist Lalonde over the establishment-backed Gauthier. Lalonde immediately began pushing the party's platform to the left, and moved it beyond the issue of mere sovereignty. The Bloc was now firmly between the social-democratic Liberals and the socialist New Democrats.

[MAINEiac4434]

The Copps Ministry

The Progressive Champion was not without her struggles in government.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs: Jean Chrétien (1993-1995), John Nunziata (1995-1997), Stéphane Dion (1997-)
Minister of Immigration and the Environment: Sergio Marchi (1993-1995), Stéphane Dion (1995-1997), Herb Dhaliwal (1997-)
Minister of Finance: Paul Martin (1993-1994), Herb Gray (1994-)
Minister of Health: Herb Dhaliwal (1993-1997), Brian Tobin (1997-)

While Copps was given a large majority, her government was thrown into chaos just months after the election when Finance Minister and Centrist Wing leader Paul Martin was accused of attempting to cover up embezzlement committed by his son's firm. The ensuing controversy resulted in Martin's resignation from parliament. Just weeks after the Martin controversy was finished, however, environment minister Sergio Marchi was implicated in a scandal that involved selling protected land to American donors for pennies on the dollar. Marchi also resigned. Copps' popularity took a hit, but her swift action against Marchi and Martin ensured that her party remained strong and her position as Prime Minister safe, though Steven Langdon distinguished himself by asking if Copps was "Richard Nixon in a trendy haircut" during Prime Minister's questions. After two years of relatively scandal-less governance, Deputy Prime Minister John Nunziata was arrested for drunk driving. He resigned from parliament in shame.

The first female Prime Minister accomplished a number of things in her first term, passing an LGBT anti-discrimination bill, a minimum wage hike, and a beefed-up environmental protection bill (which was especially helpful to her popularity following the Marchi scandal).

The opposition performed well, forcing concessions on a tax increase (from the PCs, Bloc and Reform) and passing a bill which increased the number of seats in the House of Commons (championed by the NDP, who would've benefited the most from it).

The economy improved greatly, which further helped the Liberals' poll numbers. Unemployment plummeted beneath its 1993 peak, and by 1996 the economy was booming, the recession long in the mirror. Copps went on a tour of the Middle East and Asia at the end of 1996, securing a trade deal with the Indochinese countries while softly rebuking Saudi Arabia and Israel, which earned her praise.

Jean Charest was popular as Opposition Leader, but losing a leadership review in 1995 led to Kim Campbell and then Joe Clark leading the Opposition. The Bloc saw a dejected Lucien Bouchard resign as leader to take up the leadership of Parti Quebecois (the Quebec nationalist provincial party), and the party moved hard to the left by electing Francine Lalonde, a socialist, to replace Bouchard. Reform and the NDP were content with keeping Manning and Langdon on, but if there wasn't an electoral breakthrough (taking advantage of Joe Clark's moderate positions, for example) some thought they both could go after the 1998 election.

[MAINEiac4434]

Progressive Conservative Leadership Review and Election, 1995-96

Jean Charest tearfully resigning the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party

The Canadian people were somewhat surprised when outgoing Prime Minister Jean Charest did not resign the leadership of his party as it was suffering an historic defeat at the hands of the Liberals. In fact, Charest promised to fight the Copps ministry with redoubled efforts. While the knives were in place to come out at the 1994 party conference, the Liberal government was thrown into chaos by serious corruption scandals at the hands of cabinet ministers Paul Martin and Sergio Marchi. The PCs, fearing that throwing themselves into a leadership election while the Liberals were reeling would be letting the government off the hook, did not initiate a leadership review and allowed Charest to continue serving as Leader of the Opposition and PC leader for another year.

In that year, Charest distinguished himself in Opposition, often witty, and often holding the Liberals to account. His popularity in the nation and among the party had recovered. Still, the specter of the 1993 election hung over his head, and the PCs initiated a leadership review at the 1995 conference.

Do you support the leadership review of Jean Charest?
Yes: 61.1%
No: 38.9%

He only had the backing of less than 40 percent of his own party. Charest immediately, yet tearfully, resigned his role as Leader of the Opposition and Progressive Conservative Leader. Interim PC leader Kim Campbell declared that a leadership election would be held at the next party conference in 1996, and that she would act as Opposition Leader in the interim.

Joe Clark's glorious return

All wings of the party were represented in the forthcoming leadership election. From the western populist like Campbell, to the Red Tories of former Prime Minister Joe Clark and Dorothy Dobbie, to the social conservatism of Ross Reid and presumptive favorite Elsie Wayne, to the mainstream Progressive Conservative policies of Greg Thompson. But the biggest question hanging over the 1995-96 PC leadership election was the question on whether to "United the Right" in Canada. With both the social conservative and right-wing populist Reform and center-right Progressive Conservatives battling each other for the right-of-center vote, the chances of kicking the Liberals out of government were slim to none.

Clark and Dobbie immediately positioned themselves as anti-merger candidates, with Dobbie having particularly harsh criticism for Reform. Thompson, Reid and particularly Wayne all held varying degrees of pro-merger ideas, and Campbell believed that the question of a merger should wait until after the 1998 election.

Progressive Conservatives were given a stark choice. With most of the moderates and anti-mergers in the party sprinted to Clark, the pro-mergers were split between Wayne and Thompson, with Dobbie, Reid and surprisingly Campbell receiving little support.

Joe Clark: 50%
Elsie Wayne: 37.5%
Greg Thompson: 12.5%

Clark won a bare majority, enough to win the leadership on the first ballot. Splitting of the pro-merger vote led to his election - and the likelihood he could form a PC government dwindled with the chance of cooperation with Reform.

[MAINEiac4434]

Canadian Federal Election, 1998

A Reform Party campaign slogan attacking Prime Minister Copps

Liberal Party: 168 (+1)
Reform Party: 81 (+51)
Progressive Conservative Party: 54 (+9)
Bloc Québécois: 18 (=)
New Democratic Party: 17 (-18)

The Liberals tried to campaign on the many successes of the incumbent government, but Reform was quick to point out the broken promise of a Goods and Services Tax repeal, and the Martin, Nunziata and Marchi scandals. The PCs failed to get their campaign truly going, with Joe Clark focusing his efforts almost entirely on Ontario and the Maritimes. Reform truly took a "national campaign," though they failed to send an MP to Ottawa from a province east of Manitoba. Steven Langdon and the New Democrats pulled out of Quebec in the wake of trade unionist Francine Lalonde's election as Bloc Québécois leader, and focused their efforts on retaking the west. He was shocked, however, at the level of the rebuke his campaign received in the west. What had once been New Democrat territory was now, solidly, Reform territory. He retreated back to Ontario, where he spent the rest of the campaign attempting to get Jack Layton and Bob Rae elected in Toronto. Both would be in the running to succeed Langdon.

Due to the increased number of seats in parliament, almost every party gained some. The Liberals just barely were unable to form a majority government, largely due to a major swing to the right-wing parties, particularly Reform. Reform's abject campaign east of Manitoba, however, cost them. Despite finishing almost even on votes, Reform finished 87 seats behind the Liberals - and despite the Liberals' cratered vote, they still returned five MPs in the Prairies and five in British Columbia. They had expected to lose seats, and the net gain of one was taken as a major moral victory, though they had lost their majority government.

The New Democrats were the single biggest losers, only just hanging on to official party status and the only party to actually lose seats. As left-leaning voters swarmed to the Liberals in the wake of the Reform surge, Steven Langdon knew he was on a "death march". He only just managed to retain his seat, but resigned saying that leading the NDP was "the greatest honor of my life." The ensuing leadership election would see the death of the Langdon wing of the party - his closest allies had all lost their seats, and the leader of the left flank of the party fell to Toronto MP Jack Layton, who was significantly close to the center than Langdon.

The PCs were bitterly disappointed by losing Official Opposition status to Reform. PC insiders were afraid that any merger will now have to be done on Reform's terms, not the PCs', and that would lead to the death of fiscally-conservative-socially-progressive politics in the country. Clark resigned on election night, with no clear successor.

The Bloc held at 18 seats, a disappointment to Lalonde. Privately, Lalonde blamed left-wing sovereigntists who were afraid of a right-wing federal government. She begged her party's executive for "one more term."

[MAINEiac4434]

New Democratic Party Leadership Election, 1999

\
Steven Langdon's attempt to build a Socialist NDP ultimately failed. His party was the only one to lose seats in the 1998 election, barely holding onto Official Party status

Heading into the 1998 election, NDP leader Steven Langdon, then in his 10th year of leading the party, promised supporters that he would deliver the party to Official Opposition status or he would resign. His campaign, however, was plagued by occasionally offensive rebukes from traditional NDP heartlands, who were now solidly Reform Party areas. He was forced to play defense, as NDP backers fled to the Liberal Party as Reform and the PCs both put together campaigns and in some polls overtook the Liberals. Langdon knew he was a dead man walking, and on election day, he lost more than half of his party's seats. He resigned that evening.

With Langdonism ultimately failing, the party was poised to take a new direction. The most left-wing leadership candidate was Torontonian Jack Layton, a friendly and affable man who had long been involved with left-wing causes, though he was not nearly as far left as Langdon. Bob Rae, the interim party leader in Langdon's wake, wanted a more social democratic and progressive party, moving it closer to the Liberals. And Alexa McDonough, who wanted to adopt Third Way positions espoused by Tony Blair and Bill Clinton.

NDP leadership election, first ballot
Jack Layton: 53.3%
Alexa McDonough: 26.7%
Bob Rae: 20%

Rae and McDonough each took away from each other, but it didn't matter as Layton won an absolute majority on the first ballot. Bill Blaikie also won an absolute majority on the deputy leadership ballot, over Svend Robinson and Lorne Nystrom.

[MAINEiac4434]

Progressive Conservative Leadership Election, 2000

Joe Clark saw his party make gains, but fall behind the surging Reformers

While the PCs gained seats in the 1998 election under Joe Clark, they lost Official Opposition status to their more right-wing siblings in Reform. Many on both sides of the PC-Reform divide felt that a merger of the two right-of-center parties was not only inevitable but necessary to knock off the Liberals. The 2000 PC leadership election was for the very future of the party and the conservative movement in Canada.

Pro-merger candidates included former party treasurer Jim Prentice of Alberta, Red Tory Peter MacKay of Nova Scotia, anti-free trade acitivst David Orchard, and social conservative activist Craig Chandler. The sole anti-merger candidate was Scott Brison of Nova Scotia, an openly-gay social liberal.

Progressive Conservative Leadership Election, 2000 (1st Ballot)
Scott Brison 33.3%
Jim Prentice: 25%
Craig Chandler: 16.7%
David Orchard: 16.7%
Peter MacKay: 8.3%

To the surprise of all observers, Peter MacKay (the presumptive favorite) finished dead last. Anti-merger PC members rallied behind Brison, while the pro-merger vote was split between MacKay, Prentice, Chandler and Orchard. Prentice ended up getting enough votes to face Brison on the second ballot.

Progressive Conservative leadership election, 2000 (2nd ballot)
Jim Prentice: 61.1%
Scott Brison: 38.9%

Prentice beat Brison on the second ballot by leaps and bounds, to the surprise of few. He took his victory as a mandate to begin negotiations with Reform on a merger of the two parties.

[MAINEiac4434]

Progressive Conservative and Reform merger referendum, 2001

Jim Prentice was poised to Unite the Right.

After Jim Prentice won the Progressive Conservative Leadership Election by a solid margin over Scott Brison on an overtly pro-merger platform, the question of a merger referendum turned from a matter of "if" to "when."

Reform passed their membership referendum near unanimously. But polls of the PC membership showed the race much closer, with the results in the margin of error.

Do you support the merger?
No: 61.9%
Yes: 38.1%

The results surprised everyone. A decisive anti-merger vote reigned in the PC Party, with those in favor not even passing forty percent. It appeared as though the right would remain divided for the foreseeable future.

[MAINEiac4434]

The Second Copps Ministry

Copps and Environment Minister Ken Dryden Announce New Gas Mileage Regulations

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs: Stéphane Dion (1998-)
Minister of Immigration: Herb Dhaliwal (1998-)
Minister of the Environment: Ken Dryden (1998-)
Minister of Finance: Herb Gray (1998-)
Minister of Health: Brian Tobin (1998-)
Minister of Government Affairs: Martha Hall Findlay (1998-)
Minister of Education: Gerard Kennedy (1998-)

Sheila Copps' Liberals just barely missed out on a majority government, by two seats. It was easy to find sympathetic PCs or New Democrats who were willing to work on most policies. Copps attempted to pass a same-sex marriage bill, with the endorsement of the entire NDP caucus and a majority of the BQ caucus. It was torpedoed, however, by dissenters on her own backbench, pushed on by Reform. Copps used much political capital to get it passed. It finally did, with many Liberal defections. It went into effect on September 1, 1999. Copps's personal popularity took a beating from a controversy involving the pepper-spraying of protesters against President Suhatro of Indonesia's state visit to Canada, with some claiming that Suhatro asked Copps to disperse the protesters. Still, her popularity stayed above the 50% mark.

The economy weakened from its post-1995 surge, but was nowhere near the levels of the 1993 recession. Unemployment went up a tick, which New Democrats blamed on the free-trade policies of the Liberals, and Reformers blamed on the pro-immigration policies of the Liberals.

Disaster struck the world on September 11, 2001. Following the terrorist attacks in New York City in Washington, D.C., Prime Minister Copps promised President McCain that she would do "everything" in her power to assist the United States. In a speech to parliament on September 15, she declared that "The eagle and the loon have always flown together, and will always fly together." The speech was replayed all over the world, and received a standing ovation from parliament.

Sheila Copps committed more troops than any other country except the United States to NATO's intervention in Afghanistan. Popularity for the "War on Terrorism" quickly soured, however, as little progress was made and young Canadians came home in body bags. By 2002, with an economy that was merely "fine", fewer domestic achievements than her first mandate and a war growing more unpopular every day, she went to Governor General Chrétien to request an early election, taking her chances with the people of Canada.

On the opposition benches, the Bloc stuck with Francine Lalonde, but those related to the more conservative positions of Lucien Bouchard remained unimpressed with her leadership, and were prepared to force her out if she didn't make major gains in 2002. Jack Layton easily dispatched Bob Rae and Alexa McDonough in the NDP leadership election in 1999. The PCs chose between the openly gay Nova Scotian Scott Brison and the unelected Albertan Jim Prentice, the former representing the anti-merger wing of the Progressive Conservative Party and the latter representing those in favor of the merger with Reform. Prentice defeated Brison, and immediately began negotiating a merger proposal with Reform leader and Leader of the Official Opposition Preston Manning. After six weeks of negotiation, the proposal went public as the "Proposal for the United Alternative Party". The Reformers easily passed their unification referendum, but the PC members rejected the merger with over 60% of the vote. Prentice and Manning each took it as a personal rebuke, and Prentice resigned. He was replaced by Joe Clark, now in his third separate stint as PC leader. The right remained divided heading into the 2002 election, and hopes dwindled for a right-wing replacement of the Liberals and Sheila Copps, especially with the NDP surging in the polls.

[MAINEiac4434]

Canadian Federal Election, 2002

Prime Minister-elect Layton addresses the media days after his landslide

New Democratic Party: 227 (+210)
Reform Party: 50 (-31)
Liberal Party: 30 (-138)
Bloc Quebecois: 28 (+10)
Progressive Conservative: 3 (-51)

When Sheila Copps went to Governor General Jean Chrétien for an early election, she had hoped to receive another mandate. In reality, she totally underestimated the burgeoning popularity of New Democrat leader Jack Layton. After starting out little known, his campaign quickly attracted support, particularly from Liberal supporters. He detoxified the New Democrat brand while criticizing Copps' perceived failures, particularly on trade and foreign policy. He took a progressive stance on social issues, and his French was good enough for his party to make inroads into Quebec. He appealed to Reform supporters by his populist rhetoric. His party leaped from the smallest party to the largest, and the increase of 210 seats was the largest ever in Canadian history by some distance. His speeches soon became must-see television events, and drew crowds of over 10,000. On the eve of the election, he packed SkyDome with over 35,000 supporters, the largest ever political gathering in Canadian history.

The Progressive Conservatives saw their support melt away like an ice cube on a Cancun sidewalk, returning only three MPs, all in Quebec. There was no longer a question of whether the PCs and Reform would merge, but rather whether the PCs would continue to exist. With no MPs out of the safest ridings in Quebec, no natural leader, and no prospects, no one knew what the future of the Progressive Conservative Party was. It had taken just nine years for the PCs to go from a large majority to only three seats from one province. Joe Clark was defeated, as was Elsie Wayne and Peter MacKay.

Sheila Copps could do nothing against the orange crush. Her popularity was still high, and she had made no major mistakes in government, but the merely "fine" economy and the sense that it was time for change in Canada was her undoing. Historians would later mention her among the best Prime Ministers in Canadian history, but by the end of the campaign the normally buoyant and jovial Copps had looked lethargic and resigned to a massive defeat. Her closing remarks in the final debate seemed to indicate that she knew her party was going down, telling the country that "Serving as Prime Minister of the greatest country on Earth is the greatest pleasure of my life, and implementing policies that have had a tangible impact on people for the better will always, always, make me proud. The Liberal Party has always and will always look out for all Canadians, and whatever the future of our country is, our party will always be around to help shape it for the best for all Canadians."

The Bloc gained ten seats, mostly at the expense of vote-splitting between the NDP and Liberals. Lalonde would survive to fight another election.

Reform was now, solidly, the conservative party of Canada. They retained official opposition status despite losing 31 seats, and Preston Manning resigned as leader for failing to take advantage of tiredness of the Liberal Party.

[GoTfan]

Is Layton the first NDP Prime Minister?

[MAINEiac4434]

Is Layton the first NDP Prime Minister?

Yes!

[MAINEiac4434]

The Layton Ministry

When Jack Layton was swept into office on the back of over 200 NDP MPs, few knew what to expect from the socialists. The NDP had never governed nationally (though they had governed many provinces with varying levels of success), but with such a huge majority Prime Minister Layton could effectively do whatever he wanted.

And that was the problem.

While the party stayed aggressively scandal free in government (with some calling it the cleanest government in Canadian history), the NDP's social reforms were wildly unpopular. A provision changing teacher tenure, designed to improve student performance and punish under-performing teachers, led to a teacher strike at the start of the school year. And Layton's willingness to negotiate with the Parti Quebecois (the pro-independence government of Quebec) alienated his western and Ontario base. His renegotiated Meech Lake Accord was defeated in a national referendum solidly, angering both Quebecers and non-Quebecers in the country. He failed to follow through on marijuana legalization and proportional representation, both major campaign promises. His popularity took a beating. Despite his green MPs (many of whom had no political experience apart from NDP activism), he was largely able to avoid defections and rebellions, and it proved instrumental in passing the Meech Lake Accord referendum, despite its ultimate failure.

The economy, however, further slowed as it did under the final years of Sheila Copps, but it still wasn't in recession territory. Unemployment, however, was slowly rising and Layton's programs seemed largely unable to halt it.

Layton scored a major coup by pulling out Canadian troops in Afghanistan and refusing to join President McCain's "regime change" wars in Somalia and Sudan. The wars quickly soured perception of the US abroad, and Layton's popularity was boosted due to his stand against the wars and US foreign policy.

On the opposition benches, Ken Dryden was able to pull the Liberals toward the center, away from the social democracy of the Copps years. He was aiming on winning over ex-Progressive Conservatives in the next federal election. Stockwell Day united the right behind him, however, and was able to get many prominent PCs, such as Peter MacKay, to join the Reform Party. The PCs, who only had three Quebec-based MPs, would not run a full slate of candidates in the next election, instead focusing on the provinces east of Manitoba. Two of the three remaining Quebec MPs, Diane St-Jacques and David Price, wanted to formally dissolve the party and join with the Liberals as a centrist bloc, opposing the socialism of the NDP and the hardcore conservatism of Reform. Interim leader Andre Bachand was opposed, however, and St-Jacques and Price were ultimately pacified and remained with the PCs.

So while Layton's first five years in government proved to be largely a failure, his popularity managed to tread water, and many Canadians were willing to give him a second mandate. Whether or not enough Candians were willing to give him a second mandate, however, remained to be seen.

[MAINEiac4434]

Reform Party of Canada leadership election, 2003

Stockwell Day took Reform much further to the right

After 16 years at the helm, Reform leader Preston Manning stepped down in 2003. Still lacking an electoral breakthrough, Manning felt that he was too linked to western Canadian populism to appeal to Canadians east of Manitoba. The only leader his party had ever known, Reform was now faced with three different options for its future;


Stockwell Day - Day is heavily linked to the Christian Right, known for his outspoken social conservative views. Day was a frequent critic of Manning's leadership from the right, and the young-earth creationist opposes Manning's brand of "green conservatism".

Stephen Harper - more of a "fiscal conservative" than a social conservative (while still holding fairly socially conservative views), Harper was seen as largely a continuation of Manning's leadership, while putting on a more professional and less populistic face on the party. He is a supporter of American foreign policy.

Keith Martin - the most centrist candidate, the social liberal is running well to the left of his two opponents. He truly sought to move the party into the same space occupied by the now all-but-dead Progressive Conservatives.

Reform Party leadership election, first ballot
Stockwell Day - 50%
Keith Martin - 35%
Stephen Harper - 20%

Harper was squeezed, as moderates sprinted to Martin and right-wingers ran to Day to keep Martin out. Day's coalition was able to squeak out a bare majority to avoid a second ballot, bringing control of the party to the ultra-right, but perhaps torpedoing any chances of winning over moderate PC supporters.

[MAINEiac4434]

Liberal Party of Canada leadership election, 2004

Ken Dryden, before he was an MP

After the Liberals' collapse in the 2002 election, Sheila Copps resigned, leaving no clear successor. Stéphane Dion was a leader of the environmentally conscious left-wing of the party, and was the Deputy Prime Minister for most of Copps' premiership. He was challenged from the left by Herb Dhaliwal, and from the center by Ken Dryden and Gerard Kennedy, all cabinet ministers.

Herb Dhaliwal - Dhaliwal is the first Indian-Canadian to be made a cabinet minister, and would be the first visible minority to become party leader if he were elected. Running on a left-wing and social democratic platform, the Punjab native is hoping to suck all the left-wing oxygen out of the room for Dion.

Stéphane Dion - the Quebecer was Environment Minister before becoming Minister of Foreign Affairs and Deputy Prime Minister for Sheila Copps. He is popular in Quebec, and is considered far enough left to placate the Copps wing of the party but not too far to scare off the right of the party.

Ken Dryden - The former NHL goalie was running as a centrist candidate who could unite all wings of the party behind him. Despite spending his hockey career in Montreal, however, his lack of fluency in French was seen as a major red flag. Still, because of his past career he was seen as a strong candidate due to his name recognition.

Gerard Kennedy - the least well-known of the candidates, Kennedy was a rookie MP who was promoted to education minister due to his work in the same role in the Ontario Assembly.

Liberal Party of Canada leadership election, 2004
Stéphane Dion - 35.3%
Ken Dryden - 35.3%
Gerard Kennedy - 23.5%
Herb Dhaliwal - 5.9%

Dhaliwal's campaign strategy backfired, and he failed to receive any meaningful support. Dion, the early favorite, had trouble staving off Dryden. Kennedy's own supporters, mostly based in the Greater Toronto Area, weren't diverse enough to eat into Dryden's support.

Liberal Party of Canada leadership election, 2004, second ballot
Ken Dryden - 60%
Stéphane Dion - 40%

Dryden was able to sweep up most of Kennedy's supporters to best Dion and take control of the party.

[MAINEiac4434]

Canadian Federal Election, 2007

The Prime Minister celebrating his surprising landslide.

New Democratic Party: 226 (-1)
Reform Party of Canada: 69 (+19)
Liberal Party of Canada: 41 (+11)
Bloc Québécois: 1 (-27)
Progressive Conservative Party: 0 (-3)

The quiet landslide.

While Jack Layton and the New Democrats did not distinguish themselves in government. With a government caucus full of rookie MPs, the party failed to fully implement its platform in its first five years in government.

But they had the benefit of being led by a ferocious campaigner. Quick-witted and genial, Jack Layton went all over Canada to bring his message to everyone in the country. He outperformed Stockwell Day and Ken Dryden in the leaders debates, bested Francine Lalonde in the traditional Bloc heartlands, and on election day, lost only one seat, maintaining a large majority of Reform.

Reform won 69 seats, a gain of 19, mostly due to the Progressive Conservatives not running any candidates outside of the east of the country. The Reformers finally broke through east of Manitoba, winning a handful of seats in Quebec and Ontario (but far behind the Liberals and NDP in both provinces), but remained shut-out in the Maritimes. Seeking a new mandate as party leader, Stockwell Day resigned on election night but announced a campaign to succeed himself.

The Bloc lost all but one seat, held by Lalonde's closest ally, Gilles Duceppe. She resigned as party leader. The dream of an independent Quebec was growing dimmer with each passing day, as Quebecers overwhelmingly backed left-leaning federalist parties: first the Copps Liberals, and now the Layton New Democrats.

Dryden proved to be a boring an unexcited campaigner. He struggled in Quebec due to his lack of fluency in French. Still, the party gained 11 seats, mostly at the expense of the Bloc. He too resigned that night.

What had started in 1993 was completed in 2007. The Progressive Conservatives were completely wiped out, their last three ridings in Quebec all lost to Liberals. For the remaining party members, a referendum would be held with four options for the party's future.

[MAINEiac4434]

2007 Referendum on the Future of the Progressive Conservative Party

Following the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada's total wipe out in the election of March 2007 -  with their three remaining MPs all losing reelection, and no gains anywhere else in Canada - no one knew what the future held for the once dominant party of Canadian politics. There was an emergency party conference held in Sault Ste-Marie where a referendum was held to deterimine the future of the party. There were five options:

Merge with the Liberal Party: Advocated by Diane St-Jacques and David Price (who made up 66% of the PC's caucus before the 2007 election), and obviously supported by the likes of Scott Brison who crossed the floor ages ago, this "Unite the Center" option was appealing to moderate and socially liberal Progressive Conservatives who disliked Reform's social conservatism and populism.

Merge with Reform: On the surface, the most popular option. Many PCs had already crossed the floor to Reform, like Peter MacKay and Elsie Wayne. Many grassroots supporters disliked the Liberals' history of, well, liberalism, even if they've tried to move to the center since the Copps years.

Continue as an independent party: Advocated by the likes of Joe Clark, who still think there's room in Canadian politics for a socially liberal and fiscally conservative party, and who feel that merging with either the Liberals or Reformers would go against some of the PC's fundamental values.

Dissolve the party without merging: For those who think the party has no future, but don't want to give a sense of satisfaction to Reformers and Liberals.

The question needed only one ballot:

What should the Progressive Conservative Party do?
Merge with Reform: 47.6%
Merge with the Liberals: 23.8%
Continue as an independent party: 19%
Dissolve the party: 9.5%

Though the Merge with Reform option did not pass 50%, it was more than 15 percentage points higher than the next highest option. In a formality, the next ballot unanimously approved the Merge with Reform option, though at that point several of those adamantly opposed to the merger had walked out of the convention.

Two weeks later, the Reform Party and Progressive Conservative Party both formally submitted their petition to merge with Elections Canada. The petition was accepted, and the new party was registered as the Conservative Party of Canada.

[MAINEiac4434]

Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Election, 2007

Immediately following the formal merger of the Reform Party and the Progressive Conservative Party, several candidates stepped forward to lead the new party of the united Canadian right-wing. Over the course of two months, the field was gradually culled until only five serious candidates remained.

Stockwell Day, former leader of the Reform Party - the leader of the former Reform Party was the candidate of the Christian Right. The young-earth creationist vehemently opposes gay rights, abortion, and is a staunch fiscal conservative. His leadership of the Reform Party did not go well, as the party lost seats in the 2007 election. Still, Stockwell is nothing if not self-confident, and believes he is the one who can lead the new Conservative Party of Canada.

Stephen Harper, former Deputy Leader of the Reform Party - while Harper is socially conservative, he doesn't really care about social issues; he's a dyed-in-the-wool fiscal conservative. He believes most of the issues surrounding gay rights and abortion are settled law. He's a staunch supporter of US foreign policy, he is seen as a bit boring. He's the choice of conservative policy wonks.

Mike Harris, former Premier of Ontario - Harris has had executive experience and experience beating New Democratic Party governments, and he's done both in Canada's largest province. Though he's been out of politics for five years, he's thought of fondly by conservatives and not-so-fondly by liberals and New Democrats. His welfare cuts were cited as the reason for rising poverty in Ontario, and his reform of Ontario public schools was undone by the following Liberal government. He's seen as a unity candidate.

Wajid Khan, MP for Mississauga-Streetsville - the ex-Liberal is running as the candidate for former Progressive Conservatives in new Conservative Party. The Pakistan native is a pure laine moderate who crossed the floor just before the last election due to dissatisfaction with the Liberals' leftward trend. The centrist was not expected to make much headway in the race.

Mark Steyn, author and activist - perhaps the oddest candidate, Steyn is a popular radio host and author, but has never run for anything, let alone been elected. Still, the candidate of the hard-right who doesn't believe in global warming and is a staunch critic of immigration and the Layton foreign policy is generating grassroots excitement.

Conservative Party leadership election, first ballot
Stephen Harper, 33.3%
Mark Steyn, 27.8%
Wajid Khan, 22.2%
Stockwell Day, 11.1%
Mike Harris, 5.6%

The Canadian political establishment was rocked when Steyn, not Khan or Day, advanced the to runoff against Stephen Harper. Though Harper had the most first round votes, he was scared of Steyn picking up supporters of Day and Harris with his populism. Further, Khan supporters disliked Harper's stance on immigration, and attempting to convince them not to abstain was fruitless. Steyn had all the momentum for the second ballot.

Conservative Party of Canada leadership runoff
Mark Steyn, 61.1%
Stephen Harper, 38.9%

Mark Steyn, an activist who had never been elected to anything, had just become the Leader of the Opposition.

[MAINEiac4434]

Liberal Party of Canada leadership election, 2008

After Ken Dryden's failed excursion to the political center, the Liberal Party was at a crossroads, and no one knew who the leadership would pick. A motley crew of candidates emerged.

Scott Brison, MP for Kings-Hants - Brison, an ex-Progressive Conservative MP and leadership candidate, is openly gay and running as the candidate of social liberals and fiscal conservatives. His social views run to the left of Dryden's, and his fiscal views to his right. The businessman is a good public speaker, and is popular among party members who think the Liberals need stronger economic policy to win over Progressive Conservatives scared of Steyn's rhetoric.

Stéphane Dion, MP for Saint-Laurent-Cartierville - the runner up in the 2004 leadership election, Dion is running as a left-winger and an "I told you so" candidate. He makes environmentalism and foreign policy, his two strengths, the basis of his campaign.

Michael Ignatieff, MP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore - Ignatieff is an academic and author who is running as a centrist, an heir to Dryden. His demeanor comes off as polished and intellectual to some and haughty and elitist to others, and the fact that he spent most of his adult life in the UK has been used against him.

Yasmin Ratansi, MP for Don Valley East - a Muslim from Tanzania, the lifelong Liberal activist is running as a feminist and as someone who can unite all wings of the party. She seeks to make the Liberal Party the party of visible minorities and their allies, and to show a contrast between the leaders of the other parties - all white men.

Liberal Party of Canada leadership election first ballot
Scott Brison, 40%
Stéphane Dion, 26.67%
Michael Ignatieff, 20%
Yasmin Ratansi, 13.33%

Brison and Dion were the two most well-funded candidates, so it was no surprise when they came through as the top two. Brison large lead over Dion, however, was unexpected. Dion supporters were afraid of a 2004 redux, made worse when Ignatieff threw his support behind Brison, giving the Nova Scotian enough support to win on the next ballot.

Liberal Party of Canada leadership runoff
Scott Brison: 52.9%
Stéphane Dion: 47.1%

The results of the second ballot were much closer than expected, with Dion surging from unexpected support from Ratansi supporters, and about half of Ignatieff's delegates. It wasn't enough, however, and Brison was able to squeak a win over Dion.

Dan McTeague was elected deputy leader over Diane St-Jacques, Gurbax Singh Malhi and Herb Dhaliwal on the first ballot.

[MAINEiac4434]

Bloc Québécois leadership election, 2009

The Progressive Conservatives are generally considered the biggest losers of the 2007 election. But the Bloc lost 27 of their 28 seats in a major rebuke of their movement, returning only Gilles Duceppe. Francine Lalonde, the Bloc's leader since 1994, resigned on election night. Duceppe became interim leader and leader in the House of Commons by default. Two years after nearly being wiped out, the party held a leadership election to decide the future of the shattered soverigntist movement.


Gilles Duceppe, MP for Laurier-Sainte-Marie - In his youth, Duceppe was a committed Maoist and member of Workers Communist Party of Canada. He did not become a Quebec nationalist until well into his thirties, after becoming a union organizer. While no longer the radical anti-capitalist he was in his youth, Duceppe is clearly on the left-wing of Canadian politics and would represent a continuation of the Lalondiste tradition in the Bloc.

Roger Gaudet, former MP for Montcalm - Gaudet was arguably the BQ's single most conservative member. The former restaurateur is a social conservative, and voted against Sheila Copps' same-sex marriage bill in 1999. He believes that the Bloc should no longer be bound by left-right politics, and instead focus exclusively on uniting the province in favor of Quebec separatism.

Bloc Québécois leadership election, 2009
Roger Gaudet: 58.8%
Gilles Duceppe: 41.2%

Clearly, Bloquistes had grown tired of Lalondisme, and blamed their longtime leader for the collapse in the 2007 election. The party had been socialist for over a decade, but under Gaudet took a hard turn back towards the right. Duceppe, the prototypical Lalondiste, openly considered sitting as an independent after Gaudet's election, but after pleading from Lalonde herself, chose to remain in the caucus.

[MAINEiac4434]

The Second Layton Ministry

A terrifyingly gaunt Layton addresses the nation

Following the "quiet landslide" of 2007, Layton again set to work on his reformist agenda. The government and the NDP again avoided the scandals that plagued the Copps Liberals, and his more modest reform of teacher tenure was more well received by the teachers' unions and proved popular with the public at large. The marijuana decriminalization bill easily passed, as did an abolition of the Senate. But the party again failed to move past FPTP for Hose of Commons elections, angering some. Layton's popularity still remained absurdly high; at one point he was the most popular leader in the western world.

Despite the economy slowing over the past five or so years, and the global economy entering a recession, Canada's economy boomed. Unemployment plummeted and at one point, over a million jobs a month were being created. Layton's policies were praised for this.

Unfortunately, Layton's decision to assist in the intervention in Libya proved to be catastrophic. Moammar Gaddafi was still entrenched in Tripoli despite coalition forces continuously attacking the city. Civilian casualties piled up, and Canadians turned against the war. Canadians were further angered when President Hillary Clinton pulled her troops out of Libya before Layton.

Steyn distinguished himself in opposition, particularly following the Libya Crisis. He took to the floor of the House of Commons to decry Layton's intervention, saying that it would exacerbate the refugee crisis and flood Canada with "dangerous people." Steyn's rhetoric was proving popular.

Despite all of that, the most notable thing to happen in Layton’s second term had little to do with politics at all. Towards the end of 2010, some in the political sphere noticed Layton had been limiting his public appearances. The public did not know why until a terrifyingly gaunt Layton called a press conference on July 25, 2011. There, the thin and weak-looking Prime Minister announced he had an aggressive form of prostate cancer and was taking a leave of absence from his role as Prime Minister, Leader of the New Democrats, and member for Toronto-Danforth. Bill Blaikie assumed the former two roles on an interim basis.

Unfortunately for Canada and the world, this was Layton’s final public appearance. He died on August 22, 2011. The nation was plunged into mourning, as this was the first time since the 19th century a Prime Minister had died in office, and Layton was extremely popular. Interim Prime Minister Bill Blaikie announced that there would be a new NDP leadership election in January 2012, and that the new NDP leader - and therefore prime minister - would then ask the Governor General for a new election.