2005/6 Predictions

[© tweed]

Dark red/blue: Dem/GOP pickups
light red/blue: Dem/GOP holds



Dem pickups: CA, OH, NY
GOP pickups: IA, MI, VA

The closest 5 races are probably CA, OH, MI, RI, and maybe AL.

[nini2287]

Dark red/blue: Dem/GOP pickups
light red/blue: Dem/GOP holds



Dem pickups: CA, OH, NY
GOP pickups: IA, MI, VA

The closest 5 races are probably CA, OH, MI, RI, and maybe AL.

I'd say the 5 closest races at this point are CA, OH, AL, MD and IL.  I don't thinK RI will be that close...Carcieri's pretty popular.  WI, GA, IA, MA and MI will also be very close.

[Jake]

5 closest are GA, OH, MD, WI, and CA

[True Democrat]

Here's mine:

The closest ones are in >30% plus Virginia and Massachusetts.

[Frodo]

Dark red -Democratic pickup
Crimson red -Democratic hold

Dark blue -Republican pickup
Aquamarine -Republican hold

[??????????]

Democrats dont seem to confident about Florida these days.

[Ben.]

I think I’ve been here before, but what the hey, for once it looks like while there are a number of democrats looking at tougher than ideal re-election battles most will survive while at the same time there are a string of vulnerable republican incumbents, so overall the gubernatorial races should be good for the Democrats (I’d expect most the senate race to be boringly uneventful, with the exception of PA and perhaps OH)…

Dark RED/BLUE – Incumbent Hold
Light RED/BLUE – Challenger Gain  

  

Republicans – Gains: 1 , Losses 5.
Democrats – Gains: 5, Losses 1.    

[??????????]

Dark RED/BLUE – Incumbent Hold
Light RED/BLUE – Challenger Gain 

   

Republicans – Gains: 1 , Losses 5.
Democrats – Gains: 5, Losses 1.   

Is that a senate map?

[True Democrat]

Dark RED/BLUE – Incumbent Hold
Light RED/BLUE – Challenger Gain 

   

Republicans – Gains: 1 , Losses 5.
Democrats – Gains: 5, Losses 1.   

Is that a senate map?

No, it's Governors.

[??????????]

He has Florida missing on that map.

[True Democrat]

He has Florida missing on that map.

He assumes it's so safe Republican that he doesn't even need to make a  prediction. 

[Ben.]

He has Florida missing on that map.

He assumes it's so safe Republican that he doesn't even need to make a  prediction. 

Sorry bout that, I missed Florida, personally I don’t know too much bout the race itself though from what I’ve read the GOP are seriously out fundraising the Democrats so far and neither side has a darn candidate yet (!)

While with Harris the likely GOP nominee for Senate, I’d expect Nelson to hang on to his senate seat, the gubernatorial race does not look promising for the Florida Dems.

From what I know I expect it to be Crist vs Davis and for Crist to win by a convincing margin.

[??????????]

He has Florida missing on that map.

He assumes it's so safe Republican that he doesn't even need to make a  prediction. 

Sorry bout that, I missed Florida, personally I don’t know too much bout the race itself though from what I’ve read the GOP are seriously out fundraising the Democrats so far and neither side has a darn candidate yet (!)

While with Harris the likely GOP nominee for Senate, I’d expect Nelson to hang on to his senate seat, the gubernatorial race does not look promising for the Florida Dems.

From what I know I expect it to be Crist vs Davis and for Crist to win by a convincing margin.

Harris will spank Nelson in the senate race.

[Sam Spade]

I would like to make a prediction now, but I think it's really unwise without knowing who the challengers are going to be.  Call me chicken. 

All I know is that Maryland, where I'm voting, will be one of the ground zero governor's races in 2006.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Apparently Riley is likely to get through the AL GOP primary, just.

[Ben.]

Apparently Riley is likely to get through the AL GOP primary, just.

Yay!

Harris will spank Nelson in the senate race.

Mason-Dixon would beg to differ

Harris will struggle after the GOP primary, the GOP base love her but the voters at large just don't like her, i wouldn't write off her chances but she is a definate under dog against Nelson. 

[socaldem]

My map doesnt have fancy stuff like grey-scale and distinctions for pick-ups...

But I'm going to make some questionable calls:

Dem pick-ups: MA, NY, AR, AL, GA, NV
Rep pick-ups: OR, WI, IL, IA
Dem close holds: MI, PA
Rep close holds: CA, MD, AK (I'm tempted to suggest this could be a dark horse for dems)...

So, yeah, I'm saying Kulongoski and Blagojevich are going to lose (not because of their unwieldy Eastern European names)... they're just not very popular in their marginal states... if either loses to a popular dem in a primary, things might change.  Right now, I don't thing things look very good for Doyle up in Wisconsin either and Nussle looks to be going strong in IA. 

Granholm and Rendell are going to have close races, but will win because of their political skills.  Spitzer is unstoppable in NY and unless a very good republican emerges in MA, it looks like dems may pull it off, finally....

I'm predicting good gains for Dems.  I think both Cox and Baxley are quite strong...  I'm cautiously optimistic on Bebee's chances in Arkansas (how is the Hutchinson family name holding up down there?)... And I'm calling an upset in NV because I really like candidates State Sen. Dina Titus and Henderson mayor Gibson and I understand that Gibbons is kinda gaffe-prone...

I think Arnie might hold off Dems in CA... the legislature just has a very bad reputation and we may have a kinda Massachusetts-esque thing going on with our governors...  It seems that Westley may be the bigger challenge for him but I'm not sure he'll make it through the primaries.  Meanwhile, Arnold's been courting enviros (though the fact that he can do this and be a big hummer owner/spokesperson makes no sense to me).  Yesturday, I heard him impose a regulation forcing companies to provide shade for workers working outside on hot days...is that the type of thing that could get him working class support?  Sounds like he may be becoming a bit of a girlie man, if you ask me...

And Alaska...hmm... Frank Murkowski seems to be VERY unpopular...until a Democrat emerges, I won't call it for them, but I still think this has upset potential.

Sure, I've made some calls that are likely totally out there, but I think there's going to continue to be quite a bit of turmoil in gov races, as there has been in the last few cycles.

[Sam Spade]

socaldem:

The Nevada prediction is, how should we say, a little bit out there. 

The state of the Nevada Democratic Party is not that good and the Republicans will be running a decently strong, casino supported candidate there.

Other than this, the prediction is not too unreasonable, especially if you think that 2006 will be a throw-the-incumbents out year.

My prediction, if I were to make one, would be a much more conservative one at present.

[Kevin]

The Termanator will win reelection by a big margin so it won't even be close in CA

[Frodo]

Bump -does anyone want to change or stand by their predictions?

[Ben.]

Bump -does anyone want to change or stand by their predictions?

Not really, with it looking like Romney will not run for re-election in MA, I’d call that state as Dem pickup, mean while I stand by my main calls that Dems pickup NY, OH and AL with other likely pickups in AR and MD… but I’m still betting that Arnie holds on CA.

I will say that Rendell won’t have an easy re-election IMHO, but he’ll still win meanwhile WI and MI will be closer and WI might flip to the GOP but at the moment the most promising and indeed possibly the only GOP pickup looks like being Iowa.     


Meaning a nation picture that in early 2007 looks something like this...



…and taking into account, the effects of Katrina and existing trends that means that prior to the presidential race in 2008 things look something like…



…I just don’t know if Katrina will do for Blanco, and I think Barbour will face Mike Moore in 07 and he just isn’t going to beat such a popular Democrat in an off year election IMHO, meanwhile in Kentucky Fletcher is done and with him the state GOP if he runs for re-election any half decent Dem will beat him by a solid margin, even if he doesn’t run the race will still lean to the Dems.   

[Keystone Phil]

Why do you have CT as a Dem pickup, Ben?

[Ben.]

Why do you have CT as a Dem pickup, Ben?

It’s a race that I don’t know much about after the Rowland fiasco I’d imagine thing where not looking to good for the state GOP, but now you mention it I have been hearing that the new Governor is pretty popular.

Its odd more than Senate or House and certainly more than the Presidency, the political party of a candidate probably matters least in gubernatorial races out of all statewide contests… at least that’s how it would appear to me. 

[Keystone Phil]

Why do you have CT as a Dem pickup, Ben?

It’s a race that I don’t know much about after the Rowland fiasco I’d imagine thing where not looking to good for the state GOP, but now you mention it I have been hearing that the new Governor is pretty popular.

Its odd more than Senate or House and certainly more than the Presidency, the political party of a candidate probably matters least in gubernatorial races out of all statewide contests… at least that’s how it would appear to me. 

Rell is not just popular. The woman had approval ratings in the 80s!

[Ben.]

Why do you have CT as a Dem pickup, Ben?

It’s a race that I don’t know much about after the Rowland fiasco I’d imagine thing where not looking to good for the state GOP, but now you mention it I have been hearing that the new Governor is pretty popular.

Its odd more than Senate or House and certainly more than the Presidency, the political party of a candidate probably matters least in gubernatorial races out of all statewide contests… at least that’s how it would appear to me. 

Rell is not just popular. The woman had approval ratings in the 80s!

Then I'd be happy to say easy GOP hold