Northern Maine

[TML]

In 2016, Northern Maine was won by the Republican nominee by 10+ points. This region was also considered the second most rural Congressional region in the entire country. Thus, I wonder if this region can be considered a lock for Republican nominees in the foreseeable future...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In 1972, Georgia was won by the Republican nominee by 50 points.

[Figueira]

"Northern Maine" isn't nearly populous enough to get its own district. ME-02 also includes some inland areas in southern Maine that also trended heavily toward Trump. The district line actually matches the current partisan divide in the state pretty well, although not perfectly. I suspect most of ME-01's R trend was coming from the culturally ME-02ish areas like Augusta that are in ME-01.

As for the future, I'm not sure. I'm not sure why the district ever voted Democratic, to be honest.

[NOVA Green]

Everyone on the forum discussing Maine- CD02 keeps neglecting the economic and cultural significance of the pulp & paper industry, that has been decimated in recent years as a result of a mixture of factors, with unfair trade practices and foreign competition certainly towards the top of the list from the perspective of many locals.

The swings in Maine-02 aren't really any more dramatic than those we saw in pulp/paper mill towns in Wisconsin and Oregon.

The recent decline in the American paper/pulp/plywood mill segment of the industry is heavily tied to unfair trade practices from China, which is something that both Liberal/Left Democrats and Republicans from these communities, as well as the forest products industry, see as the major cause for current issues, particularly following the great recession.

Here are a bunch of links, many of which I posted on my 2016 Oregon General Election results thread, and a few others as well...

http://mainemeetsworld.bangordailynews.com/2015/12/14/home/where-the-paper-industry-went/

https://bangordailynews.com/2014/10/02/business/whats-behind-the-troubles-facing-maine-paper-mills/?ref=moreInstate

http://www.pressherald.com/2016/01/02/mills-close-as-states-paper-industry-folds-due-to-less-demand/

http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2016/01/china_is_killing_oregons_paper.html

http://www.pprc.info/china/wyden_calls_for_investigation_of_chinese_logging_practices.htm

http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/11/oregon_delegation_unites_over.html

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/peter-defazio-chinese-plywood-oregon-097084

http://archive.jsonline.com/business/bankrolled-and-bioengineered-china-supplants-wisconsins-paper-industry-183049221.html

http://www.npr.org/2013/01/06/168741373/ipads-china-twin-threats-to-wisconsins-paper-industry

http://aamweb.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/research-pdf/NoPaperTiger.pdf


Anyways---- I could go on and on and post a ton more links on this subject....

The reality is that Trump's decision to go after 25 years of Democratic and Republican Presidential administrations on "Free Trade" with China, starting with Bush Senior, was either a complete accident from a buffoon shooting out a random, or a possibly an intentional act of strategic brilliance.

Regardless, it appears to explain a significant amount of Trump's swing and appeal in heavily timber resource based communities, many of voters whom have tended to support Democrats as often or more so than Republicans in Federal and Statewide elections....

There is more to Maine-02 than just the Forest Products sectors, BUT it's a lot like many parts of small-town and rural Oregon, and in relatively small-town and rural communities, getting a decent paying job with benefits, even if it's non-union, at the local paper mill, used to be a right of passage into the American Middle Class. 

IDK... maybe we have someone from Maine and/or Wisconsin that can jump in a do a compare & contrast with some understanding and experience in their local communities, but yeah this is a big deal seeing this level of swing towards a Republican Presidential nominee in places outside of the "Old Growth"Timber Wars of the PacNW of the late '80s and early/mid '90s.

When the Mill towns start swinging heavily, that's when you know you are up the creek lacking a paddle, and on the verge of accidentally hitting a Class 4 rapids in your raft, right before you hit a waterfall, because there is no guide steering the raft....

[Intell]

"Northern Maine" isn't nearly populous enough to get its own district. ME-02 also includes some inland areas in southern Maine that also trended heavily toward Trump. The district line actually matches the current partisan divide in the state pretty well, although not perfectly. I suspect most of ME-01's R trend was coming from the culturally ME-02ish areas like Augusta that are in ME-01.

As for the future, I'm not sure. I'm not sure why the district ever voted Democratic, to be honest.

Lewiston, ME, was a democratic counties, and counties in the NW of the state had lots of resource focused industries in where workers voted for the democrats.

[NOVA Green]

"Northern Maine" isn't nearly populous enough to get its own district. ME-02 also includes some inland areas in southern Maine that also trended heavily toward Trump. The district line actually matches the current partisan divide in the state pretty well, although not perfectly. I suspect most of ME-01's R trend was coming from the culturally ME-02ish areas like Augusta that are in ME-01.

As for the future, I'm not sure. I'm not sure why the district ever voted Democratic, to be honest.

Lewiston, ME, was a democratic counties, and counties in the NW of the state had lots of resource focused industries in where workers voted for the democrats.

Lewiston is a good point, which was not the original focus of my OP, but is still illustrative of how Trump was able to perform extremely well in historically Democratic constituencies in many smaller mill towns in various regions of the country.

Lewiston--- (2004-2016 Presidential GE Election Restults)

2004: 17,663 Total Votes (62.4% D- 36.9% R)    +25.5% D
2008: 16,905 Total Votes (62.9% D- 35.3% R)    +27.6% D       (+2.1% D Swing)
2012: 15,809 Total Votes (60.9% D- 36.7% R)    +24.2% D       (+3.4% R Swing)
2016: 16,738 Total Votes (49.1% D- 43.8% R)    +5.3%  D        (+18.9% R Swing)


So, read them and weep Democrats, and read them and gloat Trump Republicans....

Basically a city that historically was verging on a 2:1 constituency turns to a narrow Democratic Presidential victory in virtually one election cycle....

I'm sure the numbers are much worse on the outskirts of Lewiston, not to mention the more rural parts of the county....

[MAINEiac4434]

Lewiston has gotten a HUGE influx of Somali refugees in recent years. That demographic shift, plus loss of traditional mill jobs,  made white people angry, and that caused the Trump explosion. Whether it will stick if/when the refugees get citizenship and flock to the Democrats (because lbh they're not voting GOP) is the real question.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Bernie probably would of won the area plus every county in Maine.

[RINO Tom]

In 1972, Georgia was won by the Republican nominee by 50 points.

I wouldn't say the region is a "lock" for Republicans... at least not yet. But it'll likely trend away from Democrats even more, unless they nominate someone like Sanders or Baldwin. If the Republican loses the district, they have already lost the election.

I know we have opposite predictions of where the parties' coalitions will line up in a few decades, but holy shlt, even so: that's ridiculous.

[MAINEiac4434]

Bernie probably would of won the area plus every county in Maine.

Obama didn't even win every county in Maine.

[KingSweden]

To build on Nova Green's point, areas of the WA coast that haven't voted GOP since pre-FDR swung to Trump, too. Paper/plywood are big industries here. Think Aberdeen, home of Nirvana, and literally one of the most depressing places on earth

[MT Treasurer]

In 1972, Georgia was won by the Republican nominee by 50 points.

I wouldn't say the region is a "lock" for Republicans... at least not yet. But it'll likely trend away from Democrats even more, unless they nominate someone like Sanders or Baldwin. If the Republican loses the district, they have already lost the election.

I know we have opposite predictions of where the parties' coalitions will line up in a few decades, but holy shlt, even so: that's ridiculous.

No, it really isn't. Trump lost the PV by 2 and won ME-02 by 10. I know you think the Republican path to 270 still runs through Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, but that's simply not the case - and it has nothing to do with what I want, so please spare me that. If Trump can't win a district that voted for him by 10 points in 2016, he'll likely be toast. And Maine-02 didn't just vote for Trump because he "was a different kind of Republican", in fact I have little doubt that someone like Kasich would have won it as well. They also reelected Poliquin by a wide margin.

The irony of course is that he also thinks NH is a swing state, but for some reason sees ME-02 as Likely or Safe D and the 2016 results as an "outlier".

[Figueira]

Remember that Maine voted for Cruz by a wide margin in the caucus.

[NOVA Green]

Lewiston has gotten a HUGE influx of Somali refugees in recent years. That demographic shift, plus loss of traditional mill jobs,  made white people angry, and that caused the Trump explosion. Whether it will stick if/when the refugees get citizenship and flock to the Democrats (because lbh they're not voting GOP) is the real question.

Yes--- I saw that, but I am not convinced that a backlash against Somali refugees that have settled in Lewiston is the major reason for the huge swing...

In fact, the migration of Somali-Americans to Lewiston has apparently reinvigorated "Main Street", which consisted of mainly boarded up small businesses, and crime has actually decreased significantly, despite Trump's claim that he made in Portland, Maine back in August of '16.

http://www.pressherald.com/2016/08/05/trump-statements-on-maine-somali-immigrants-draws-sharp-rebuke/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Somalis_in_Maine

http://www.voanews.com/a/lewiston-maine-offers-lessons-amid-influx-of-refugees/3181631.html

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/08/05/maine-sees-somalian-community-starkly-different-than-what-donald-trump-portrayed/qOh4IjKY3VYYcxNG7zkcBM/story.html

http://www.centralmaine.com/2016/01/07/african-immigrants-to-maine-are-young-educated-and-integrating/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/after-bumpy-start-lewiston-maine-town-embraces-african-immigrants/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/after-bumpy-start-lewiston-maine-town-embraces-african-immigrants/

[RINO Tom]

In 1972, Georgia was won by the Republican nominee by 50 points.

I wouldn't say the region is a "lock" for Republicans... at least not yet. But it'll likely trend away from Democrats even more, unless they nominate someone like Sanders or Baldwin. If the Republican loses the district, they have already lost the election.

I know we have opposite predictions of where the parties' coalitions will line up in a few decades, but holy shlt, even so: that's ridiculous.

No, it really isn't. Trump lost the PV by 2 and won ME-02 by 10. I know you think the Republican path to 270 still runs through Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado, but that's simply not the case - and it has nothing to do with what I want, so please spare me that. If Trump can't win a district that voted for him by 10 points in 2016, he'll likely be toast. And Maine-02 didn't just vote for Trump because he "was a different kind of Republican", in fact I have little doubt that someone like Kasich would have won it as well. They also reelected Poliquin by a wide margin.

The irony of course is that he also thinks NH is a swing state, but for some reason sees ME-02 as Likely or Safe D and the 2016 results as an "outlier".

I don't know if you were talking to me, while referring to me as "he," but I never said ME-2 is "Likely" or "Safe" D, I said a Republican can win the White House without it (and that says nothing about NM or VA, LOL).  And they can.  Your political analysis, while usually good and well-researched, seems to operate on the usual Atlas assumption that "swingy" regions will never swing back, and I just don't buy that.  If a state voted for Obama by as much as ME-2 did, it's just simply not necessary for a Republican to win it.  That doesn't mean Republicans won't, though.

[Chinggis]

I'm not sure why the district ever voted Democratic, to be honest.

This... this sentence sums up what is wrong with American politics. You have a person with thousands of posts on a political forum who is honestly surprised that working-class white people ever voted for Democrats. I'm not picking on you- it's just so telling. This is where we're at.

Thanks Obama.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Important thing to take into account is, ME-01 is basically the parts of the state that are more bona fide socially liberal, closer to metro Boston, while ME-02 is more working class and rural conservative. The former constituency was more willing to vote for Hillary Clinton.

[MAINEiac4434]

Important thing to take into account is, ME-01 is basically the parts of the state that are more bona fide socially liberal, closer to metro Boston, while ME-02 is more working class and rural conservative. The former constituency was more willing to vote for Hillary Clinton.

And did, heavily. Her entire margin in the state is due to ME-01.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Important thing to take into account is, ME-01 is basically the parts of the state that are more bona fide socially liberal, closer to metro Boston, while ME-02 is more working class and rural conservative. The former constituency was more willing to vote for Hillary Clinton.

And did, heavily. Her entire margin in the state is due to ME-01.

Question, how did the two CDs vote in the gubernatorial elections of 2010 and 2014?

[MAINEiac4434]

Important thing to take into account is, ME-01 is basically the parts of the state that are more bona fide socially liberal, closer to metro Boston, while ME-02 is more working class and rural conservative. The former constituency was more willing to vote for Hillary Clinton.

And did, heavily. Her entire margin in the state is due to ME-01.

Question, how did the two CDs vote in the gubernatorial elections of 2010 and 2014?

Just as you'd think. In 2010, ME-01 went heavily for Cutler, while LePage only won by running it up in ME-02.

In 2014, ME-01 went solidly for Michaud, ME-02 went for LePage (Michaud was a longtime congressman from ME-02, but had just come out as gay. ME-02 also strongly opposed the same-sex marriage referendum).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Important thing to take into account is, ME-01 is basically the parts of the state that are more bona fide socially liberal, closer to metro Boston, while ME-02 is more working class and rural conservative. The former constituency was more willing to vote for Hillary Clinton.

And did, heavily. Her entire margin in the state is due to ME-01.

Question, how did the two CDs vote in the gubernatorial elections of 2010 and 2014?

Just as you'd think. In 2010, ME-01 went heavily for Cutler, while LePage only won by running it up in ME-02.

In 2014, ME-01 went solidly for Michaud, ME-02 went for LePage (Michaud was a longtime congressman from ME-02, but had just come out as gay. ME-02 also strongly opposed the same-sex marriage referendum).

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/town.php?year=2014&fips=23&f=1&off=5&elect=0&datatype=town
LePage won landslides in ME-02, that's not shocking, but the sheer scale in terms of %...wow

[Biden his time]

In 2016, Northern Maine was won by the Republican nominee by 10+ points. This region was also considered the second most rural Congressional region in the entire country. Thus, I wonder if this region can be considered a lock for Republican nominees in the foreseeable future...

I tend to agree

Only question is how much more Republican can it get?
And when will the immense Republican margins in Northern Maine cause Maine as a whole to flip red?

[Tartarus Sauce]

In 2016, Northern Maine was won by the Republican nominee by 10+ points. This region was also considered the second most rural Congressional region in the entire country. Thus, I wonder if this region can be considered a lock for Republican nominees in the foreseeable future...

I tend to agree

Only question is how much more Republican can it get?
And when will the immense Republican margins in Northern Maine cause Maine as a whole to flip red?

The GOP would either need to start getting Appalachian level margins out of the north or start making more inroads into the coastal areas that have been trending away from them. Even with Trump on the ballot, who was a massive turnout generator for WWC voters of a similar profile across the country, R+9 ME-2 only had 85% of the voter turnout that D+23 ME-1 did.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In 2016, Northern Maine was won by the Republican nominee by 10+ points. This region was also considered the second most rural Congressional region in the entire country. Thus, I wonder if this region can be considered a lock for Republican nominees in the foreseeable future...

I tend to agree

Only question is how much more Republican can it get?
And when will the immense Republican margins in Northern Maine cause Maine as a whole to flip red?

The GOP would either need to start getting Appalachian level margins out of the north or start making more inroads into the coastal areas that have been trending away from them. Even with Trump on the ballot, who was a massive turnout generator for WWC voters of a similar profile across the country, R+9 ME-2 only had 85% of the voter turnout that D+23 ME-1 did.

Yea sheer turnout alone won't do it, it requires improvements on the coast as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Kevin Phillips in his book Emerging Republican Majority (1969) predicted that even though Republicans representing Yankee dominated rural districts had zoomed to the left in the sessions from 1965 to 1969 in Congress based on their voting records and had come to align themselves more with Nelson Rockefeller over that period of time (as late as the 40s and 50s some of the most Conservative Republicans held districts in these areas such as Reed and Wadsworth in New York and by the late 60s the Western Southern tier was held by a liberal Republican and then a Democrat before electing another liberal Republican in the 1980s), he expected that rural Yankees would continue to align with the Republicans, even if at reduced levels surely, in opposition to the Democrats increasingly beholden to the "interest of the Megaopolis" as he put it.

Phillips is known for three big mistakes that invariably account for every area in which he was off or mistaken. 1. He did not take Reagan seriously 2. He did not account for or predict the rise of the religious right nor its ability to define Conservatism and Republicanism beginning in the 1990s and 3. He did not account for generational dynamics very well.

However, what we are seeing now might indeed be a realization of his prediction if not necessarily operating (As of yet) among the demographic he had in mind. With the current educational divide as well as the urban and rural divide, we see Republicans gaining decent ground in some places where they had been losing support in the region across the board.