Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Ebsy]

The updated numbers are in the other thread.

[Brittain33]

It's interesting to see these numbers, but again, we should be very cautious in comparing them to other elections and hoping to derive benchmarks since they are a relatively small share of the total votes and we don't know what election day voting will look like. All we can get from this is that Democratic intensity is showing up in early voting, just as there's a small core of Democrats voting in every special election everywhere this year, and we don't see signs of a Republican organization in early voting.

I keep getting flashbacks to Democratic confidence drawn from Florida and Nevada in 2016 which I believed proved that Dems had won the election. I was surprised by Republican turnout off the chart on Election Day. The fundamentals of this race still point to a toss-up with a slight tilt to Rs.  

[socaldem]

How’s the Jim Jodrdan scandal playing in the district? Could this give Balderson an opening?

[wesmoorenerd]

How’s the Jim Jodrdan scandal playing in the district? Could this give Balderson an opening?

A scandal involving a rep from another district is going to have pretty much no effect on this district. Also, even if it did have an effect, I fail to see how Balderson would receive any benefit from it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

How’s the Jim Jodrdan scandal playing in the district? Could this give Balderson an opening?

peak atlas

[socaldem]

How’s the Jim Jodrdan scandal playing in the district? Could this give Balderson an opening?

peak atlas

LOL. I meant could it help O'Connor.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180726/after-blasting-oconnor-over-pelosi-balderson-wont-say-if-hed-back-jordan-as-speaker

[cp]

Thanks everyone! Here's today's updated numbers:

Not high enough for the Dems. They’re gonna need to hit 75, because E-Day is devastating for them.

Most analysts say the number O'Connor needs is 60%...

Surely the more relevant statistic is what the proportion of early votes is relative to the overall total, which we won't know until the election is over. Has the proportion of EV to Eday votes changed very much in recent special elections? If so, O'Connor being at 60% may be well more than enough, or, conversely, him being at 75% still might leave him short.

[Progressive Pessimist]

How’s the Jim Jodrdan scandal playing in the district? Could this give Balderson an opening?

peak atlas

LOL. I meant could it help O'Connor.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180726/after-blasting-oconnor-over-pelosi-balderson-wont-say-if-hed-back-jordan-as-speaker

In spite of you making an error in your post, with how cynical and shameless the GOP has become I wouldn't be surprised if some Republican voters now turn out for Balderson in order to stand up to the "fake news" and their accusations against Jordan.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

Surely the more relevant statistic is what the proportion of early votes is relative to the overall total, which we won't know until the election is over. Has the proportion of EV to Eday votes changed very much in recent special elections? If so, O'Connor being at 60% may be well more than enough, or, conversely, him being at 75% still might leave him short.

It's difficult (and often fairly inaccurate) to use early votes as the sole predictor of an election result.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OP is updated with basic info on today's election. Results will be here after 7:30 ET: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/07/us/elections/results-ohio-special-house-election-district-12.html

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.
Danny O’Connor
Dem.
17,079   63.7%
Troy Balderson
Rep.
9,507   35.5
Joe Manchik
Green
225   0.8
26,811 votes, <1% reporting (0 of 591 precincts)

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Looks like the NYT might have removed election results from the paywall again and replaced the paywall with a massive ad to buy a subscription.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.
Danny O’Connor
Dem.
22,653   62.5%
Troy Balderson
Rep.
13,322   36.8
Joe Manchik
Green
267   0.7
36,242 votes, 1% reporting (7 of 591 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.
Danny O’Connor
Dem.
27,407   56.7%
Troy Balderson
Rep.
20,596   42.6
Joe Manchik
Green
361   0.7
48,364 votes, 9% reporting (53 of 591 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.
Danny O’Connor
Dem.
30,444   55.4%
Troy Balderson
Rep.
24,134   43.9
Joe Manchik
Green
412   0.7
54,990 votes, 18% reporting (106 of 591 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.
Danny O’Connor
Dem.
43,968   53.4%
Troy Balderson
Rep.
37,754   45.9
Joe Manchik
Green
572   0.7
82,294 votes, 31% reporting (186 of 591 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.
Danny O’Connor
Dem.
62,804   50.6%
Troy Balderson
Rep.
60,486   48.7
Joe Manchik
Green
826   0.7
124,116 votes, 59% reporting (349 of 591 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Troy Balderson
Republican
68,763   50.3%   
Danny O’Connor
Democrat
66,925   49.0   
Joe Manchik
Green
904   0.7   
136,592 votes, 66% reporting (391 of 591 precincts)

[krazen1211]

Delaware County vote drop. Big lead for Balderson.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Troy Balderson
Republican
89,666   50.0%   
Danny O’Connor
Democrat
88,635   49.4   
Joe Manchik
Green
1,056   0.6   
179,357 votes, 89% reporting (524 of 591 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Troy Balderson
Republican
95,677   49.9%   
Danny O’Connor
Democrat
94,936   49.5   
Joe Manchik
Green
1,102   0.6   
191,715 votes, 95% reporting (562 of 591 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

APPARENT WINNER:

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Troy Balderson
Republican
100,044   50.1%   
Danny O’Connor
Democrat
98,359   49.3   
Joe Manchik
Green
1,120   0.6   
199,523 votes, 99% reporting (584 of 591 precincts)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Troy Balderson
Republican
101,574   50.2%   
Danny O’Connor
Democrat
99,820   49.3   
Joe Manchik
Green
1,127   0.6   
202,521 votes, 100% reporting (591 of 591 precincts)