Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[cinyc]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

                     
U. S. Representative 4th District 4th District 
                     
James A. Thompson             ......   37472 / 49%
Chris Rockhold                ......    1240 /  1%
Ron Estes                     ......   37058 / 48%
WRITE-IN                      ......      60 /  0%

What was the early vote number?

[heatcharger]

Btw, am I crazy for thinking that Democrats have a shot at the gubernatorial race here in 2018?

Probably not, and I would like to see Thompson run for that race as well. KS-04 was 6 points to the right of the state as a whole in 2016, and it looks like that's about the margin he's gonna lose by.

[NeederNodder]

It's so gut wrenching to see all these bug Democrats have a say on this race when they cared little about actually wanting to win it.

[Badger]

Democrats poured MILLIONS into this seat. MILLIONS.

Republicans didn't.

Estes sleepwalked through the campaign.

"Estes was a particularly weak candidate. As a member of Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration, he scored a 2 of 10 score on candidate strength."

For reasons pointed out by other posters, you've crossed the line from being a hack to an outright idiot. Quit posting.

[Matty]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

what is that % wise?

[henster]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

[Badger]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

Jeez. So my prediction about ED vote being overwhelmingly GOP was right?

[cinyc]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

what is that % wise?

.546 points.  49.42%-48.87% (including write-ins).

[Holmes]

Do people forget kansas 2014?

This state should not be considered any sort of microcosm.

GA-6 far more interesting.

Republicans better hope Trump doesn't do to the country what Brownback did to Kansas.

[Adam Griffin]

Could someone construct a swing map of the counties?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

It might not hurt. I was at a Ted Cruz rally last year, and the loudest cheers came when he talked about guns. As weird as it sounds, I think there are probably a sizable number of single-issue gun voters out there in rural areas.

[heatcharger]

Estes just padded his lead by a lot:

✓ Estes (R) - 60,945 - 53.3%
Thompson (D) - 51,467 - 45.0% (how did his vote total go down???)
Rockhold (L) 1,971 - 1.7%

99% reporting (619 of 620 precincts)

[Adam Griffin]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

Jeez. So my prediction about ED vote being overwhelmingly GOP was right?

It appears that about one-third of Sedgwick's vote was EV; two-thirds ED. IIRC, Thompson won EV by about 22 points, so this would mean Estes won ED by about 10.

[cinyc]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

Jeez. So my prediction about ED vote being overwhelmingly GOP was right?

It appears that about one-third of Sedgwick's vote was EV; two-thirds ED. IIRC, Thompson won EV by about 22 points, so this would mean Estes won ED by about 10.

Yes.  The Sedgwick County early vote was about 61-39 Thompson.  The Sedgwick County election day vote was about 55-45 Estes (ignoring third parties and write-ins).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

U.S. House - District 4 - Special General
South Central
619 of 620 Precincts Reporting - 99%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   Estes, Ron   GOP   60,945   53%
Thompson, James   Dem   51,467   45%
Rockhold, Chris   Lib   1,971   2%

[Pandaguineapig]

Surprised how high turnout was for this election, almost half of the presidential election vote

[RI]

Not sure why people even bother caring about the early vote at this point.

[Adam Griffin]

Estes ends up losing Sedgwick County by just 414 votes in the final unofficial tally.

Jeez. So my prediction about ED vote being overwhelmingly GOP was right?

It appears that about one-third of Sedgwick's vote was EV; two-thirds ED. IIRC, Thompson won EV by about 22 points, so this would mean Estes won ED by about 10.

Yes.  The Sedgwick County early vote was about 61-39 Thompson.  The Sedgwick County election day vote was about 55-45 Estes (ignoring third parties and write-ins).

To add to my original post and in regard to badger's characterization (and of course it is relative), I wouldn't consider winning ED votes in Sedgwick by 10 to be "overwhelming", necessarily. Trump carried the county overall by 18.

[Holmes]

So Jenkins next door is retiring in 2018...

[Shadows]

Not fair to draw a national picture but Dems didn't fight this race hard, the DSCC barely helped & they didn't even pour big money. Republicans definitely tried with Trump, Cruz, Pence, Ryan & poured money too.

Anyways special elections are weird but turnout was decent & performance is very encouraging. In 2014, Dems won 69K odd of 208K votes & this time it's 51K out of 113K, even with bigger turnout of their base, surely they would have gone well past the 69K mark with a 208K turnout. Dems did make solid ground despite Republicans pushing hard in this seat, don't know that can even be denied. And Thompson ran as an unabashed liberal progressive berniecrat.

[Pandaguineapig]

Not sure why people even bother caring about the early vote at this point.

Well it is a sign of democratic enthusiasm like in 2016 when many voters went to vote against trump. The "problem" if you can call it that is the ptsd many red avatars have gotten seeing large early leads get wiped out by election day vote. Like when many democrats thought Clinton had won Florida because 0% of Broward was "in" when about 80% of actual votes had been counted

[The Other Castro]

Thompson just announced he's running for KS-4 in 2018. Lol.

[publicunofficial]

Thompson just announced he's running for KS-4 in 2018. Lol.

Winner's attitude

[cinyc]

Sedgwick apparently had more votes to report - I'm not sure from where.  Thompson now wins the county by 1,874 votes, or 2.3 points:

U. S. Representative 4th District 4th District  
                    
James A. Thompson             ......   41293 / 50%
Chris Rockhold                ......    1347 /  1%
Ron Estes                     ......   39419 / 47%
WRITE-IN                      ......      79 /  0%

That puts the overall margin back to around 6.8 points.

[Holmes]

Thompson just announced he's running for KS-4 in 2018. Lol.

Well like I said, he has a base now. He needs to visit and campaign in the rural areas.