Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Associate Justice PiT]

Thompson: "We've sent a message that no Republican district is safe."

     If this persuades Democrats to waste money in districts they will never win, I can't complain.

[Devout Centrist]

I kinda doubt Dems will take Ga-06.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is there anywhere that has precinct-by-precinct results yet?

Here's Sedgwick, anyway:

2017


2016 President


Swing


Turnout as Percent of 2016 President

At least the republican-swinging precincts give me something to blame for Thompson's loss.

[Adam Griffin]

Is there anywhere that has precinct-by-precinct results yet?

Here's Sedgwick, anyway:

2017


2016 President


Swing


Turnout as Percent of 2016 President

OK, cool. Yeah, I was thinking about doing a swing map for the CD but it looks like you're already ahead of me.

[Holmes]

Thompson: "We've sent a message that no Republican district is safe."

     If this persuades Democrats to waste money in districts they will never win, I can't complain.

On the flip side, Republicans were the ones spending hundreds of thousands of dollars here.

[smoltchanov]

Obviously - very good result for Democrats, giving them hope in Georgia. Especially because Democratic candidate was an unapologetic Berniecrat. Democrat managed to flip Sedgwick county first time in many years, and ran decent in suburbs, while being crushed in more rural areas (lightly populated), as usual in last years.  May be Democrat with more appeal in these areas could do even better, but still very good result for them..

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, this ended up a lot closer than I thought for some reason.

Probably need to rethink my GA-06 prediction later on ...

[Klartext89]

I thought about writing that I think it will end 53-45-2 for Estes yesterday, but I was a bit worried because special elections are different. You have low turnout and the opposition party is usually much more enthusiastic and excited about flipping the seat than the defending party is. So I'm really pleased with the result and can only smile about the Dems thinking that this will tell anything about 2018.

The only county Thompson could win was Sedgwick (Wichita) and it was close there. Like always, the Dems got crushed so badly in the suburbs and the rural areas.

If you compare the result to the 2016 Presidential Elections and the 2014 Senatorial Elections, you see that Estes is underperforming Trump heavily in Sedgwick and mostly around 5-7 points in the rest of the District because it's a special election with an energized Dem base and a reluctant GOP base. Also you have to note that Thompson was a way better candidate than Hillary Clinton and the District only went 54-41 for Senator Roberts against Greg Orman - and I'm sure even smaller for Govenor Brownback who is very unpopular.

Nevertheless, he isn't underperforming Roberts anywhere except Sedgwick what is quite remarkable.

Barber: 76% to 83% for Trump (70% for Roberts in 2014)
Butler: 62% to 69% (60%)
Chautauqua: 81% to 83% (76%)
Comanche: 74% to 82% (71%)
Cowley: 56% to 66% (54%)
Edwards: 78% to 79% (70%)
Elk: 78% to 83% (63%)
Greenwood: 73% to 76% (64%)
Harper: 72% to 78% (67%)
Harvey: 53% to 59% (53%)
Kingman: 71% to 76% (65%)
Kiowa: 80% to 84% (77%)
Pawnee: 71% to 79% (71%)
Pratt: 64% to 74% (63%)
Sedgwick: 48% to 56% (51%)
Stafford: 72% to 79% (68%)
Sumner: 62% to 72% (58%)

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/851758257064607746
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/KS_US_House_0411.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Well, I'm satisfied. Given the early hopes (which got crushed so badly) of the Dems on Twitter a few hours ago and meltdown afterwards, the GOP Needs to throw everything into GA6, I want to have a lot more to laugh about ^^

[smoltchanov]

^ Yes and No.

Yes:

1. Specials have their own dynamics. They are, usually, "activists driven": it's, mostly, activists, who vote, turnout is low, and, usually, opposition party activists are much more organized and energized then those, supporting "powers that be".

2. Estes was rather mediocre candidate, and had not one, but two albatrosses around his neck: Trump and Brownback

No:

1. Nevertheless, there were no scandals about Estes, Democratic candidate wasn't "a moderate with broad crossover appeal", but commited Berniecrat, and he still managed to shave 20+ % from "typical Republican advantage" of late in this district: 7% instead of 27 (Trump) and 31 (Pompeo) in November. And this is NOT a "high-income, highly educated suburban district", like those that heavily swung to Clinton in 2016. Rather vice versa. (BTW - Roberts was unpopular too, so his percentages can't be considered a "norm" for this district)

2. Democrat won one county only, but it is the biggest county by far, while rural Republican counties have very few people. Somewhat better result in suburban counties (and it's there, where Democrats make gains of late), slightly better candidate, and it would be not simply good (as is this time), but, at least, extremely close.


Georgia will show. There we have s purely suburban highly educated district, no Brownback (though Trump is still there), slightly less (IMHO) socially conservative tradition, and energetic, well funded (but rather inexperienced and somewhat "too left" for this district) Democratic candidate. It may be more "of trend" then KS-04.

[Classic Conservative]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

Yes whenever you go to a GOP rally, especially a Trump or Cruz rally, the largest and loudest cheers are for guns. However, the party in DC would probably have to move to the right on guns to have any impact whatsoever.

[TheSaint250]

I thought there would be much more media coverage on how this was too close for a safe district and people saying the House is now a tossup. 

Also, what was the percent turnout compared to 2016's presidential?

[ApatheticAustrian]

In #KS04, the Dem vote was 68% of their vote in the district last year. The GOP vote was just 38% of last year’s total. Good enough to win.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/852162872528338945


Great win in Kansas last night for Ron Estes, easily winning the Congressional race against the Dems, who spent heavily & predicted victory!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/852138509355933697

[Hindsight was 2020]

In #KS04, the Dem vote was 68% of their vote in the district last year. The GOP vote was just 38% of last year’s total. Good enough to win.
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/852162872528338945


Great win in Kansas last night for Ron Estes, easily winning the Congressional race against the Dems, who spent heavily & predicted victory!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/852138509355933697

It's amazing how Trump tweet was literally the opposite of what happened

[Chief Justice Keef]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

I'd be willing to see more pro-gun Democrats if they ran economically populist campaigns like Thompson. I think that's the reason it came so close; Brownback's fiscal conservatism has been a disaster in Kansas.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the gun thingie is dead in the US anyway, so especially rural dems should be allowed to bury it for good and national dems only use it if it can be used to DO something and not only talking about it.

[Stranger in a strange land]

the gun thingie is dead in the US anyway, so especially rural dems should be allowed to bury it for good and national dems only use it if it can be used to DO something and not only talking about it.

Or better yet just drop the issue entirely. When was the last time you heard about school uniforms, v-chips, or videogame violence discussed as major, national political issues? Hell, Republicans basically did this with gay issues in 2014-2016 and it seems to have helped them.

[McGovernForPrez]

the gun thingie is dead in the US anyway, so especially rural dems should be allowed to bury it for good and national dems only use it if it can be used to DO something and not only talking about it.

Or better yet just drop the issue entirely. When was the last time you heard about school uniforms, v-chips, or videogame violence discussed as major, national political issues? Hell, Republicans basically did this with gay issues in 2014-2016 and it seems to have helped them.

Dropping the issue is totally OK, but to a lot of rural voters the stigma of Dems being anti-gun is so entrenched that Democrat's need to fight assure them that they aren't gonna take them away. That's why Kander did so well, and it's probably why Thompson did so well also.

[Wiz in Wis]

Using the ol' Excelorama, plugging in the shift (Pompeo -> Estes, Giroux -> Thompson) across all House seats would see the Dems picking up 99 seats, winning the house 293 to 142.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but it should maybe entice the blue avatars here to cut it out with the gloating.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While national Dems can't be NRA shills and keep the  base, they definitely​ should come out as supporters of the Heller Decision and quit supporting the magazine limits and assault weapons stuff. Don't just drop the issue, actually say your position has changed. And on Background checks and the like, show your support for it regularly, not just when there's been a crisis and you can find 50 crying parents on every corner to attend your big speech.

[Holmes]

Using the ol' Excelorama, plugging in the shift (Pompeo -> Estes, Giroux -> Thompson) across all House seats would see the Dems picking up 99 seats, winning the house 293 to 142.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but it should maybe entice the blue avatars here to cut it out with the gloating.

Maps please

[Wiz in Wis]

Using the ol' Excelorama, plugging in the shift (Pompeo -> Estes, Giroux -> Thompson) across all House seats would see the Dems picking up 99 seats, winning the house 293 to 142.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but it should maybe entice the blue avatars here to cut it out with the gloating.

Maps please

I'll throw that in the to do list.

[ApatheticAustrian]

While national Dems can't be NRA shills and keep the  base, they definitely​ should come out as supporters of the Heller Decision and quit supporting the magazine limits and assault weapons stuff. Don't just drop the issue, actually say your position has changed. And on Background checks and the like, show your support for it regularly, not just when there's been a crisis and you can find 50 crying parents on every corner to attend your big speech.

the absurd thing is ofc, that there are majorities .....crude one sometimes...for the changes democrats propose, but this is just not mattering at all in the political world of the US.

meaning: it is necessary to adapt your politics to be also directed AGAINST a majority to increase your majority, cause the people who are for more gun control are voting for you anyway.

[Wiz in Wis]

Using the ol' Excelorama, plugging in the shift (Pompeo -> Estes, Giroux -> Thompson) across all House seats would see the Dems picking up 99 seats, winning the house 293 to 142.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but it should maybe entice the blue avatars here to cut it out with the gloating.

Maps please

I'll throw that in the to do list.

FWIW, here are the seats that flip: Alabama 2   Alaska AL   Arizona 2   Arkansas 2   California 1   California 10   California 21   California 25   California 39   California 42   California 45   California 48   California 49   Colorado 3   Colorado 6   Florida 3   Florida 6   Florida 15   Florida 16   Florida 18   Florida 26   Florida 27   Georgia 6   Georgia 7   Georgia 12   Illinois 6   Illinois 12   Illinois 13   Illinois 14   Indiana 2   Indiana 9   Iowa 1   Iowa 3   Iowa 4   Kansas 3   Kentucky 6   Maine 2   Michigan 1   Michigan 3   Michigan 6   Michigan 7   Michigan 8   Michigan 11   Minnesota 2   Minnesota 3   Missouri 2   Montana AL   Nebraska 2   Nevada 2   New Jersey 2   New Jersey 3   New Jersey 7   New Jersey 11   New York 1   New York 19   New York 22   New York 23   New York 24   North Carolina 2   North Carolina 5   North Carolina 6   North Carolina 7   North Carolina 8   North Carolina 9   North Carolina 13   Ohio 1   Oklahoma 5   Pennsylvania 6   Pennsylvania 7   Pennsylvania 8   Pennsylvania 12   Pennsylvania 15   Pennsylvania 16   South Carolina 1   South Carolina 5   South Carolina 7   Texas 6   Texas 7   Texas 10   Texas 14   Texas 21   Texas 22   Texas 23   Texas 24   Texas 25   Texas 27   Texas 31   Utah 4   Virginia 1   Virginia 2   Virginia 5   Virginia 7   Virginia 10   Washington 3   Washington 5   Washington 8   West Virginia 2   Wisconsin 6   Wisconsin 7

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While national Dems can't be NRA shills and keep the  base, they definitely​ should come out as supporters of the Heller Decision and quit supporting the magazine limits and assault weapons stuff. Don't just drop the issue, actually say your position has changed. And on Background checks and the like, show your support for it regularly, not just when there's been a crisis and you can find 50 crying parents on every corner to attend your big speech.

the absurd thing is ofc, that there are majorities .....crude one sometimes...for the changes democrats propose, but this is just not mattering at all in the political world of the US.

meaning: it is necessary to adapt your politics to be also directed AGAINST a majority to increase your majority, cause the people who are for more gun control are voting for you anyway.

Well, it's a majority made up of like 95% support in NYC and 20% support or less in places like NY-21 and KS-3. It's not a majority conducive to winning a large house majority in the foreseeable future.

[ApatheticAustrian]

While national Dems can't be NRA shills and keep the  base, they definitely​ should come out as supporters of the Heller Decision and quit supporting the magazine limits and assault weapons stuff. Don't just drop the issue, actually say your position has changed. And on Background checks and the like, show your support for it regularly, not just when there's been a crisis and you can find 50 crying parents on every corner to attend your big speech.

the absurd thing is ofc, that there are majorities .....crude one sometimes...for the changes democrats propose, but this is just not mattering at all in the political world of the US.

meaning: it is necessary to adapt your politics to be also directed AGAINST a majority to increase your majority, cause the people who are for more gun control are voting for you anyway.

Well, it's a majority made up of like 95% support in NYC and 20% support or less in places like NY-21 and KS-3. It's not a majority conducive to winning a large house majority in the foreseeable future.

you are absolutely effing correct and since this topic is much easier for me to swallow than abortions and seems to be even more polarizing, i kind of agree with what you have proposed.

it's just mind-biggling for an middle-european, to say the least, that it's a winning strategy.