Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

[McGovernForPrez]

Yeah this has got to be the least elastic special election on the roster. I can't see a Dem pickup here. Still worth watching, but expecting much less than the other ones.

[GlobeSoc]

Yeah, SC-05 seems like if it has a similar swing as other specials, it would indicate that either southern wwc turnout is severely depressed or that that demographic gained massive elasticity out of nowhere. Either scenario would backfire the southern republican gerrymanders if it continued through 2018 and result in the unraveling of the republican caucus.

For this reason, I would say that the swing will only be 2-5 points to the democrats in the district. Even if on election night the early vote comes in 90% democrat I am still going to think the republican will win.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

[SCNCmod]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

I'm unfamiliar with almost all of them... on both sides.  

I do know Mr. Norman.  He's a good guy (although not reality familiar with many of his political views). He has many qualities that should make him a perfect political candidate- but for some reason voters never fully latched on to him- to the extent I would expect (he lost to (D) John Spratt when 5th district had a few more democrats prior to redistricting).  As a successful developer in Rock Hill/ Charlotte area & with an entertaining (in a good way) and photogenic family ... he will likely definitely be Trump's prefered candidate.

The Dem candidate that would've had the best chance is Thomas McElveen... too bad he chose not to run!

[Maxwell]

Tommy Pope currently leads in the polls (but only at 19%), with Norman, Few, and Mulliken all at around 8-10%. Since I don't know anything else, I'd say Pope is the favorite.

[Ebsy]

We're apparently going to get a special election in Chaffetz' seat.

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

Also, SC-05 is a district that significantly swung to Trump - Obama got nearly 45% of the vote both times, but Hillary got just 38%.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

For the Party of Trump: Connolly is the former chair of the SC Party of Trump, Few is the founder of an Anti-Common-Core Group, Wampler is an Attorney, Pope is in his seventh year as a state representative, Craig is a missionary who unsucccessfully attempted to primary Mulvaney from the left in 2016, Norman is a former state representative, and Mullikin is on the Board of Directors for the SC chapter of the US Army Special Forces Foundation and also works as an Attorney.

[Smash255]

My parents retired down to SC-5 (just over the border from Charlotte).  As much as I would like to see a Dem pickup I highly doubt it unless something major happens.

[Brittain33]

This district Bishop originally ran in 25 years ago was majority African-American, I believe, and incumbency has helped him avoid challengers as the minority share of the population dipped into the 40s. It's not really comparable to SC-5.

[smoltchanov]

This district Bishop originally ran in 25 years ago was majority African-American, I believe, and incumbency has helped him avoid challengers as the minority share of the population dipped into the 40s. It's not really comparable to SC-5.

In Statistical Atlas GA-02 listed as 51.4% Black, SA-05 - only 27.2%. That's not simply "a difference", that's "enormous difference")))) Before recent polarization people like Spratt could forge a biracial coalition and win. Usually - no more...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

In the late 90s, he had a 60% white district.  I'm not saying a black Democrat can win SC-5, I'm just saying it's important not to make such sweeping generalizations when evaluating candidates.  I wouldn't have thought an African-American could get elected mayor of Jacksonville and while he narrowly lost re-election, Alvin Brown proved me wrong.  Mike Thurmond was elected to three terms as Georgia Labor Commissioner.  Gary Anderson came about 5% away from being elected MS Treasurer in 2003 IIRC. 

There are races (ex: Harold Ford's 2006 Senate loss, for example) where race-baiting was likely the reason the Democrat lost, but in SC-5 we're gonna lose because we don't have a three unremarkable some dude candidates running in a heavily Republican district.  All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often. 

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often. 

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

[cinyc]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

Senator Tim Scott says hi, both as Senator from South Carolina and Congressman from SC-1.  

Not all African-Americans are Democrats.  It is perfectly possible for a black Republican to win in the South a majority white district.

[smoltchanov]

Senator Tim Scott says hi, both as Senator from South Carolina and Congressman from SC-1.  

Not all African-Americans are Democrats.  It is perfectly possible for a black Republican to win in the South a majority white district.

I know that. But i meant Black Democrats, because somebody stated, that the best candidate in SC-05 for Democrats would be Black. In most cases Black Democratic candidate in majority-white southern districts is (politically correct speaking) ... far from being the most electable Democratic candidate... Gwen Graham managed defeat Southerland in old FL-02 in 2014, but i am ready to bet substantial money that that district would never elect Black Democrat...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often. 

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

Obama won Florida in 2012

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often. 

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

As i said above - Florida, from Orlando down South, is NOT typically southern state. Would he win South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisisana or Arkansas  - another matter (typical southern states without great metropolises). In SC-05 we don't have metropolises or even their close suburbs (as in GA-06), so i consider my reasoning valid..

Obama won Florida in 2012

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often. 

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

As i said above - Florida, from Orlando down South, is NOT typically southern state. Would he win South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisisana or Arkansas  - another matter (typical southern states without great metropolises). In SC-05 we don't have metropolises or even their close suburbs (as in GA-06), so i consider my reasoning valid..

Obama won Florida in 2012

Please don't put your replies in my post.  Also Orlando is definitely a southern city.

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

As i said above - Florida, from Orlando down South, is NOT typically southern state. Would he win South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisisana or Arkansas  - another matter (typical southern states without great metropolises). In SC-05 we don't have metropolises or even their close suburbs (as in GA-06), so i consider my reasoning valid..

Obama won Florida in 2012

Please don't put your replies in my post.  Also Orlando is definitely a southern city.

When post is so long - it's not difficult to err. About Orlando - i meant in political sense, not geographically... . Well, let's simply agree to disagree: i seem unable to convince you, and you surely (i know that, it's quite difficult thing to do in ANY case, and you don't present too much arguments or numbers...) will not convince me... So - there is no sense to continue..

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

As i said above - Florida, from Orlando down South, is NOT typically southern state. Would he win South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisisana or Arkansas  - another matter (typical southern states without great metropolises). In SC-05 we don't have metropolises or even their close suburbs (as in GA-06), so i consider my reasoning valid..

Obama won Florida in 2012

Please don't put your replies in my post.  Also Orlando is definitely a southern city.

When post is so long - it's not difficult to err. About Orlando - i meant in political sense, not geographically... . Well, let's simply agree to disagree: i seem unable to convince you, and you surely (i know that, it's quite difficult thing to do in ANY case, and you don't present too much arguments or numbers...) will not convince me... So - there is no sense to continue..

Just out of curiosity, what exactly do you think my initial claim was? 

[smoltchanov]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

As i said above - Florida, from Orlando down South, is NOT typically southern state. Would he win South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisisana or Arkansas  - another matter (typical southern states without great metropolises). In SC-05 we don't have metropolises or even their close suburbs (as in GA-06), so i consider my reasoning valid..

Obama won Florida in 2012

Please don't put your replies in my post.  Also Orlando is definitely a southern city.

When post is so long - it's not difficult to err. About Orlando - i meant in political sense, not geographically... . Well, let's simply agree to disagree: i seem unable to convince you, and you surely (i know that, it's quite difficult thing to do in ANY case, and you don't present too much arguments or numbers...) will not convince me... So - there is no sense to continue..

Just out of curiosity, what exactly do you think my initial claim was?  

As i see - that i generalize too much (with Sanford Boshop example, which didn't convince me too much). Well, may be, but i used words "as a rule" (which allows for exceptions, but - relatively rare exceptions).... Urban areas (Charlotte, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, NoVA, Research Triangle, big Texas metropolises. and so on) have it's own political dynamics, where "metropolization" may trump race. Rural  and small city southern areas - very rare. Yes, they can vote for conservative black Republican (like Scott in South Carolina), but that's almost all. They will NOT (usually) vote for liberal or even moderate Black Democrat... Because of area history and traditions, which they inherited from their ancestors... Hence i usually consider a fact, that such and such  Democratic candidate in the South is Black, as not plus, but rather a minus to his/her electability.. Except, obviously, majority-minority districts, where it can be a BIG plus...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

As i said above - Florida, from Orlando down South, is NOT typically southern state. Would he win South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisisana or Arkansas  - another matter (typical southern states without great metropolises). In SC-05 we don't have metropolises or even their close suburbs (as in GA-06), so i consider my reasoning valid..

Obama won Florida in 2012

Please don't put your replies in my post.  Also Orlando is definitely a southern city.

When post is so long - it's not difficult to err. About Orlando - i meant in political sense, not geographically... . Well, let's simply agree to disagree: i seem unable to convince you, and you surely (i know that, it's quite difficult thing to do in ANY case, and you don't present too much arguments or numbers...) will not convince me... So - there is no sense to continue..

Just out of curiosity, what exactly do you think my initial claim was?  

As i see - that i generalize too much (with Sanford Boshop example, which didn't convince me too much). Well, may be, but i used words "as a rule" (which allows for exceptions, but - relatively rare exceptions).... Urban areas (Charlotte, Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, NoVA, Research Triangle, big Texas metropolises. and so on) have it's own political dynamics, where "metropolization" may trump race. Rural  and small city southern areas - very rare. Yes, they can vote for conservative black Republican (like Scott in South Carolina), but that's almost all. They will NOT (usually) vote for liberal or even moderate Black Democrat... Because of area history and traditions, which they inherited from their ancestors... Hence i usually consider a fact, that such and such  Democratic candidate in the South is Black, as not plus, but rather a minus to his/her electability.. Except, obviously, majority-minority districts, where it can be a BIG plus...

My point was just that it's possible for African-American Democrats to win culturally southern white majority districts, albeit extremely difficult.  I never said being an African-American Democrat in a majority-white southern district is an advantage, only that it isn't always guaranteed to end in said candidate's defeat.  It's like how a white candidate winning a majority African-American district is difficult, but not impossible (ex: Steve Cohen).  The part about you generalizing came later* and I gave examples of exceptions other than Sanford Bishop (albeit not in house seats).  The other thing is that while the south's urban areas obviously have different political dynamics, many of them are still culturally southern. In other words, Nashville and Orlando may not be conservative cities, but they are certainly southern cities in almost every meaningful sense (Nashville is an even better example). 

*Although you do indeed tend to over-generalize

[smoltchanov]

^ Well, i know that it's possible for Black candidate to win majority-white Southern district. Sometimes - even a rural one. IIRC - in 2007 Black Democrat won state Senate seat in Mississippi which was rural and more then 95% white (he lost it later, but it's another story). But it's still a big rarity... So, my point was that "being Black" doesn't in any way increases electoral chances of candidate in southern majority-white (especially - more or less rural) districts, and to state that such candidate "would be the best, because he/she is Black" is a mistake. Black candidate can win there, but he/she must have other outstanding qualities and "happen to be Black", not be a "Black candidate".

And when i speak about whether such and such area is "Southern" i mean strictly political tradition and preferences. A words of one North Florida political commentator about his state come to mind: "I'm convinced that the further south you drive, the further north you get"...

P.S. The same about white politicians in majority-Black seats: Steve Cohen now wins convincingly, but was regularily primaried by Black candidates, many of whom spoke about "this being a Black seat", before. The same with members of state legislatures (Patricia Todd in Alabama, and some other). Racial polarization in voting is still high enough..