Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)
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  Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)  (Read 199675 times)
The Other Castro
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« Reply #125 on: April 10, 2017, 02:14:03 PM »

Final prediction before tomorrow:

Ron Estes (R) - 53%
James Thompson (D) - 44%
Chris Rockhold (L) - 3%
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Ebsy
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« Reply #126 on: April 10, 2017, 02:14:35 PM »

Also, does anyone have any idea where one can find the final early vote statistics for KS-04? Tom Bonier of TargetSmart posted some a few days back but I haven't seen any numbers since then.
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VPH
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« Reply #127 on: April 10, 2017, 03:08:39 PM »

I say:
Estes - 53%
Thompson - 43%
Rockhold - 4%

As a Wichitan, I know by any mean this is a hell of an uphill battle. Here's what Thompson has going for him:
-Insane fundraising numbers (for the 4th district)
-Strong grassroots support in Wichita's young professional community (we'll see if there are enough "new Wichitans" to propel him to victory)
-He's strongly pro-gun
-The field operation is incredibly strong, and there are thousands of volunteers on the ground and on the phones
-Estes hasn't really been campaigning much; his office has sat around empty for a while just before the election
-Estes somehow has less energy than Jeb Bush or Ben Carson, the guy is sooooo boring
-Paul Davis only lost the district by a few points, and Estes is strongly linked to unpopular Brownback

Here's what stands in his way though:
-This district bleeds red through and through-most Dems lose by 30
-Ted Cruz remains very popular with the large Evangelical population
-Abortion ads will hit Thompson hard, even though they're false; Abortion is even more of a fault line in Wichita than most places thanks to the Summer of Mercy and then years later, Dr. Tiller's killing
-Estes was the former county treasurer and current state treasurer, so people know him
-Will Black and Latino Democrats in Wichita turn out? There was a big turnout dropoff in 2014 and even from the presidential race to the congressional race in 2016
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rob in cal
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« Reply #128 on: April 10, 2017, 03:53:01 PM »

  Looking at Estes's website you would think Obama was still president, no mention of Trump that I could find, either for or against. Any sense of whether he would be fairly Trump friendly or not as much?
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Ronnie
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« Reply #129 on: April 10, 2017, 04:01:47 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2017, 04:05:02 PM by Ronnie »

I predict:

Estes 57%
Thompson 39%

I hope the Democrat does better, but I don't see it.  The district is too red.
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #130 on: April 10, 2017, 04:03:42 PM »

For the hell of it:
Estes - 48%
Thompson - 46%
Rockhold - 6%

I know it probably won't be this close, but I at least have the right to dream for that old western populism to make a resurgence.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #131 on: April 10, 2017, 04:11:10 PM »

@jonshorman
>> TRUMP has recorded call for Estes, KS Republican national committeeman Mark Kahrs tells me #ksleg #KS04

Bringing out the big guns.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #132 on: April 10, 2017, 04:19:53 PM »

Prediction:
Ron Estes (R) 50%
James Thompson (D) 36%
Chris Rockhold (Ltn) 4%
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #133 on: April 10, 2017, 04:22:32 PM »

Prediction:
Ron Estes (R) 50%
James Thompson (D) 36%
Chris Rockhold (Ltn) 4%

Implying you predict 10% of all ballots are invalid
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #134 on: April 10, 2017, 04:27:15 PM »

Prediction:
Ron Estes (R) 50%
James Thompson (D) 36%
Chris Rockhold (Ltn) 4%

Implying you predict 10% of all ballots are invalid

Yes, I just realized.  Very stupid of me.

Estes 54%
Thompson 42%
Rockhold 4%
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heatcharger
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« Reply #135 on: April 10, 2017, 04:30:02 PM »
« Edited: April 10, 2017, 04:33:45 PM by heatcharger »

Cook just moved this race from Likely R to Lean R:



@jonshorman
>> TRUMP has recorded call for Estes, KS Republican national committeeman Mark Kahrs tells me #ksleg #KS04

Bringing out the big guns.

Here's the transcript of that robocall:



He really said "big league"...
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Xing
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« Reply #136 on: April 10, 2017, 04:45:47 PM »

I'll predict Estes wins 52-44.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #137 on: April 10, 2017, 04:54:08 PM »

Romney won this district by only 8%...I think the final margin will be around there

No... maybe you're thinking of KS-03 where Romney won by 9. This district went from 61-36 Romney to 60-33 Trump.
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Holmes
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« Reply #138 on: April 10, 2017, 05:10:53 PM »

If this were an open seat in KS-02, it would be winnable for Democrats. If it were KS-03, it'd probably lean Democrat at this point. But it's neither.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #139 on: April 10, 2017, 05:57:05 PM »

Going to go ahead and say Estes only wins by 5 or 6.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #140 on: April 10, 2017, 05:59:27 PM »

Prediction
Estes 52%
Thompson 45%
Rockhold 3%
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #141 on: April 10, 2017, 06:06:08 PM »

This reminds me of 2014 with all the hysteria over kansas congressional seats. Estes wins this by 15
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #142 on: April 10, 2017, 06:26:14 PM »

Estes will win, but by less than 10. Even if they're playing it safe, Republicans seem to be sweating over this a little too much if Estes was on track to cruise through by something like a 15 point margin.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #143 on: April 10, 2017, 06:31:41 PM »

Crystal Ball moved this to Likely R
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InheritTheWind
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« Reply #144 on: April 10, 2017, 06:42:55 PM »

Estes wins 51-44.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #145 on: April 10, 2017, 07:01:23 PM »

Crystal Ball moved this to Likely R
From Safe R?
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #146 on: April 10, 2017, 07:21:10 PM »


Yes
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KingSweden
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« Reply #147 on: April 10, 2017, 07:35:59 PM »


This strikes me as a reasonable prediction
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Gass3268
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« Reply #148 on: April 10, 2017, 09:13:54 PM »

Quote
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Source

Yeah, I don't believe that.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #149 on: April 10, 2017, 09:15:26 PM »

lmao if a Republican internal only has Estes up 1 point...
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