Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FINAL:

U.S. House - District 4 - Special General
South Central
620 of 620 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   Estes, Ron   GOP   63,505   53%
Thompson, James   Dem   55,310   46%
Rockhold, Chris   Lib   2,082   2%

[KingSweden]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

Absolutely. This more than abortion is what has slammed them in rural areas

[Adam Griffin]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

Absolutely. This more than abortion is what has slammed them in rural areas

I can tell you that in my rural area, abortion is cited as the #1 reason why people don't vote for Democrats...but most of that attitude comes from ardent Republicans. When you start asking about which issue matters most to those who can or do actually sway, it's definitely guns. It wouldn't hurt us at all to run as the "pro-abortion" party here, but if you run as the "anti-gun" party, you can lose a substantial chunk of even your otherwise loyal Democrats.

[Thomas Jackson]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

what spin? this is a district Trump won by nearly 30.

wow you guys averted complete disaster in a district you had no business losing. great job.

A Trump will win it again by 30 points.

Estes isn't Trump.

Yes, Trump is by every measure a far, far worse candidate.

Blaming this on Estes is profoundly obtuse.

So you so admit Trump won by 30, but then Trump is a worse candidate? The same candidate that ground your Hillary! goddess into paste?

[Chief Justice Keef]

Thompson just announced he's running for KS-4 in 2018. Lol.

Hopefully next time the DNC give him more than $0.

[Thomas Jackson]

Democrats poured MILLIONS into this seat. MILLIONS.

Republicans didn't.

Estes sleepwalked through the campaign.

"Estes was a particularly weak candidate. As a member of Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration, he scored a 2 of 10 score on candidate strength."

For reasons pointed out by other posters, you've crossed the line from being a hack to an outright idiot. Quit posting.

No.

[Barnes]

Thompson just announced he's running for KS-4 in 2018. Lol.

Whitby-Oshawa by-election, 2014

I knew this race reminded me of another by-election...

Liberal candidate gets an enormous swing in a solidly Conservative riding but loses by nine points and then goes on to win the (redistributed) riding a year later.

Of course the difference is that the Grits understood that this was a fantastic result for them.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats poured MILLIONS into this seat. MILLIONS.

Republicans didn't.

Estes sleepwalked through the campaign.

"Estes was a particularly weak candidate. As a member of Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration, he scored a 2 of 10 score on candidate strength."

For reasons pointed out by other posters, you've crossed the line from being a hack to an outright idiot. Quit posting.

No.

Somebody lacks reading comprehension.

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2017/04/flurry-of-spending-in-kansas-4th/

[Beet]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

Absolutely. This more than abortion is what has slammed them in rural areas

I can tell you that in my rural area, abortion is cited as the #1 reason why people don't vote for Democrats...but most of that attitude comes from ardent Republicans. When you start asking about which issue matters most to those who can or do actually sway, it's definitely guns. It wouldn't hurt us at all to run as the "pro-abortion" party here, but if you run as the "anti-gun" party, you can lose a substantial chunk of even your otherwise loyal Democrats.

We're not pro-abortion, nor should we run as it, even if it doesn't hurt.

[Adam Griffin]

Should Ds reconsider messaging on guns? Both Kander & Thompson featured guns in their ads and seemed to really break thru in rural areas even if its a small difference.

Absolutely. This more than abortion is what has slammed them in rural areas

I can tell you that in my rural area, abortion is cited as the #1 reason why people don't vote for Democrats...but most of that attitude comes from ardent Republicans. When you start asking about which issue matters most to those who can or do actually sway, it's definitely guns. It wouldn't hurt us at all to run as the "pro-abortion" party here, but if you run as the "anti-gun" party, you can lose a substantial chunk of even your otherwise loyal Democrats.

We're not pro-abortion, nor should we run as it, even if it doesn't hurt.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semantics
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anal_retentiveness

[Shadows]

HRC btw was the most anti-gun major nominee in a long while. In the Michigan debate vs Sanders, she said that gun manufacturers & sellers should be held liable even if some random dude commits an act of violence while Sanders was arguing they should be held liable if they knowingly sold guns to the wrong people or en mass etc. That would have ended gun manufacturing in a way - HRC's stance was beyond extreme just to prove Sanders' isn't a perfect progressive.

That did cost her in rural areas in the GE. I am also disappointed the that the DNC & DSCC atleast didn't send more money & helped in the ground game considering how hard Republicans tried. You have to atleast try than give up everywhere !

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Some are saying that Estes' narrow win spells doom for the GOP Next year...either way it's going to be one close and exciting mid term election.

[Badger]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

what spin? this is a district Trump won by nearly 30.

wow you guys averted complete disaster in a district you had no business losing. great job.

A Trump will win it again by 30 points.

Estes isn't Trump.

Yes, Trump is by every measure a far, far worse candidate.

Blaming this on Estes is profoundly obtuse.

So you so admit Trump won by 30, but then Trump is a worse candidate? The same candidate that ground your Hillary! goddess into paste?

First off, a******, please note the blue Avatar. I realize perfectly well unlike you that Trump is a POS, but I hardly means I have an ounce of love for Hillary.

Secondly, a little reality check for you which you consistently seem to be in need of. Hillary slammed Trump by over 3 million votes. He is present only because of that b******* anachronism called The Electoral College. So again, kindly get a clue before you spout off.

Thirdly, yes Trump is a horrible can it. He's the only candidate that could have possibly lost to Hillary, and actually did in terms of, you know, actual number of votes. Add to the fact that his entire presidency for the last few months has been nothing but a unmitigated dumpster fire comma he is Forsworn a lot of his blue collar support by running basically is a billionaire on economic policy comma and yes he is a sh**tbird candidate.

Didn't I tell you to stop posting? Stop posting. Your posts are bad and you should feel bad. Come back once you reach your mid teens

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Well, my ignore list got a new friend today.

[Badger]

Well, my ignore list got a new friend today.

Good idea.

[Adam Griffin]

Is there anywhere that has precinct-by-precinct results yet?

[Thomas Jackson]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

what spin? this is a district Trump won by nearly 30.

wow you guys averted complete disaster in a district you had no business losing. great job.

A Trump will win it again by 30 points.

Estes isn't Trump.

Yes, Trump is by every measure a far, far worse candidate.

Blaming this on Estes is profoundly obtuse.

So you so admit Trump won by 30, but then Trump is a worse candidate? The same candidate that ground your Hillary! goddess into paste?

First off, a******, please note the blue Avatar. I realize perfectly well unlike you that Trump is a POS, but I hardly means I have an ounce of love for Hillary.

Secondly, a little reality check for you which you consistently seem to be in need of. Hillary slammed Trump by over 3 million votes. He is present only because of that b******* anachronism called The Electoral College. So again, kindly get a clue before you spout off.

Thirdly, yes Trump is a horrible can it. He's the only candidate that could have possibly lost to Hillary, and actually did in terms of, you know, actual number of votes. Add to the fact that his entire presidency for the last few months has been nothing but a unmitigated dumpster fire comma he is Forsworn a lot of his blue collar support by running basically is a billionaire on economic policy comma and yes he is a sh**tbird candidate.

Didn't I tell you to stop posting? Stop posting. Your posts are bad and you should feel bad. Come back once you reach your mid teens

1. Your blue avatar is fake. You are a diehard leftist.

2. Your Hillary! goddess was destroyed. Trump is your president, like it or not.

3. The electoral college is all that matters.

You can stamp your feet and try to intimidate all you like. I find it hilarious. I don't care what you "tell me" to do.

[Chief Justice Keef]

1. Your blue avatar is fake. You are a diehard leftist.

2. Your Hillary! goddess was destroyed. Trump is your president, like it or not.

3. The electoral college is all that matters.

You can stamp your feet and try to intimidate all you like. I find it hilarious. I don't care what you "tell me" to do.

I'm reading all of this in a whiny nerd voice.

[Ronnie]

A nineteen point swing in just over five months?  Not bad, I say.

[heatcharger]

I might be misremembering but didn't Berniecrats "take over" the KS Democratic Party a while ago?

[Chief Justice Keef]

I might be misremembering but didn't Berniecrats "take over" the KS Democratic Party a while ago?

Nope. You might be thinking of either Wyoming or California.

[publicunofficial]

Thompson: "We've sent a message that no Republican district is safe."

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, the lead was fun while it lasted. Updating OP with next week's stuff.

[RI]

Is there anywhere that has precinct-by-precinct results yet?

Here's Sedgwick, anyway:

2017


2016 President


Swing


Turnout as Percent of 2016 President

[cinyc]

Is there anywhere that has precinct-by-precinct results yet?

If you go to the Kansas SoS link and click on the counties on the map, there is a link to the various county websites at the top of the page.  Some of the counties have released precinct results. Segwick has.

Edited to add:
Butler County precinct results
Harvey County precinct results (Excel File)

The other counties don't seem to have them up yet.  Those counties are all pretty small, too.