Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

While national Dems can't be NRA shills and keep the  base, they definitely​ should come out as supporters of the Heller Decision and quit supporting the magazine limits and assault weapons stuff. Don't just drop the issue, actually say your position has changed. And on Background checks and the like, show your support for it regularly, not just when there's been a crisis and you can find 50 crying parents on every corner to attend your big speech.

the absurd thing is ofc, that there are majorities .....crude one sometimes...for the changes democrats propose, but this is just not mattering at all in the political world of the US.

meaning: it is necessary to adapt your politics to be also directed AGAINST a majority to increase your majority, cause the people who are for more gun control are voting for you anyway.

Well, it's a majority made up of like 95% support in NYC and 20% support or less in places like NY-21 and KS-3. It's not a majority conducive to winning a large house majority in the foreseeable future.

you are absolutely effing correct and since this topic is much easier for me to swallow than abortions and seems to be even more polarizing, i kind of agree with what you have proposed.

it's just mind-biggling for an middle-european, to say the least, that it's a winning strategy.

Abortion is very polarizing in a straight opinion poll, but at the same time, it's something that a strong majority of women never have, so it's not really all that personal for a lot of people - out of sight, out of mind. And then you get people like me, that definitely care about stopping Abortion, but don't want to be a single issue voter on the issue, because holding the country hostage over one issue just doesn't​ seem right. So unless you're Hillary-level stupid and go around supporting partial birth, Abortion doesn't really take up the minds of swing voters.

But with guns, it's very personal - most Americans, even a lot of mainline Dems, own a gun or know someone who does. It's very personal because suddenly your own property is at risk - you can't just not think about it. And if you're pro life as well, now you have two counts against the Dem. So it's pretty easy to see how this issue can much more easily occupy the minds of swing votes.

[Tintrlvr]

Using the ol' Excelorama, plugging in the shift (Pompeo -> Estes, Giroux -> Thompson) across all House seats would see the Dems picking up 99 seats, winning the house 293 to 142.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but it should maybe entice the blue avatars here to cut it out with the gloating.

Maps please

I'll throw that in the to do list.

FWIW, here are the seats that flip: Alabama 2   Alaska AL   Arizona 2   Arkansas 2   California 1   California 10   California 21   California 25   California 39   California 42   California 45   California 48   California 49   Colorado 3   Colorado 6   Florida 3   Florida 6   Florida 15   Florida 16   Florida 18   Florida 26   Florida 27   Georgia 6   Georgia 7   Georgia 12   Illinois 6   Illinois 12   Illinois 13   Illinois 14   Indiana 2   Indiana 9   Iowa 1   Iowa 3   Iowa 4   Kansas 3   Kentucky 6   Maine 2   Michigan 1   Michigan 3   Michigan 6   Michigan 7   Michigan 8   Michigan 11   Minnesota 2   Minnesota 3   Missouri 2   Montana AL   Nebraska 2   Nevada 2   New Jersey 2   New Jersey 3   New Jersey 7   New Jersey 11   New York 1   New York 19   New York 22   New York 23   New York 24   North Carolina 2   North Carolina 5   North Carolina 6   North Carolina 7   North Carolina 8   North Carolina 9   North Carolina 13   Ohio 1   Oklahoma 5   Pennsylvania 6   Pennsylvania 7   Pennsylvania 8   Pennsylvania 12   Pennsylvania 15   Pennsylvania 16   South Carolina 1   South Carolina 5   South Carolina 7   Texas 6   Texas 7   Texas 10   Texas 14   Texas 21   Texas 22   Texas 23   Texas 24   Texas 25   Texas 27   Texas 31   Utah 4   Virginia 1   Virginia 2   Virginia 5   Virginia 7   Virginia 10   Washington 3   Washington 5   Washington 8   West Virginia 2   Wisconsin 6   Wisconsin 7

Heh.

(Also shows how brutal the Ohio gerrymander is, for what it's worth.)

[Brittain33]

(Also shows how brutal the Ohio gerrymander is, for what it's worth.)

...and how terrible Clinton's performance was for what people still think of as a median swing state.

[Tintrlvr]

(Also shows how brutal the Ohio gerrymander is, for what it's worth.)

...and how terrible Clinton's performance was for what people still think of as a median swing state.

Believe the swing calculations Wiz did are based on 2016 Congressional, not Presidential, results.

[Badger]

Using the ol' Excelorama, plugging in the shift (Pompeo -> Estes, Giroux -> Thompson) across all House seats would see the Dems picking up 99 seats, winning the house 293 to 142.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but it should maybe entice the blue avatars here to cut it out with the gloating.

Maps please

I'll throw that in the to do list.

FWIW, here are the seats that flip: Alabama 2   Alaska AL   Arizona 2   Arkansas 2   California 1   California 10   California 21   California 25   California 39   California 42   California 45   California 48   California 49   Colorado 3   Colorado 6   Florida 3   Florida 6   Florida 15   Florida 16   Florida 18   Florida 26   Florida 27   Georgia 6   Georgia 7   Georgia 12   Illinois 6   Illinois 12   Illinois 13   Illinois 14   Indiana 2   Indiana 9   Iowa 1   Iowa 3   Iowa 4   Kansas 3   Kentucky 6   Maine 2   Michigan 1   Michigan 3   Michigan 6   Michigan 7   Michigan 8   Michigan 11   Minnesota 2   Minnesota 3   Missouri 2   Montana AL   Nebraska 2   Nevada 2   New Jersey 2   New Jersey 3   New Jersey 7   New Jersey 11   New York 1   New York 19   New York 22   New York 23   New York 24   North Carolina 2   North Carolina 5   North Carolina 6   North Carolina 7   North Carolina 8   North Carolina 9   North Carolina 13   Ohio 1   Oklahoma 5   Pennsylvania 6   Pennsylvania 7   Pennsylvania 8   Pennsylvania 12   Pennsylvania 15   Pennsylvania 16   South Carolina 1   South Carolina 5   South Carolina 7   Texas 6   Texas 7   Texas 10   Texas 14   Texas 21   Texas 22   Texas 23   Texas 24   Texas 25   Texas 27   Texas 31   Utah 4   Virginia 1   Virginia 2   Virginia 5   Virginia 7   Virginia 10   Washington 3   Washington 5   Washington 8   West Virginia 2   Wisconsin 6   Wisconsin 7

Heh.

(Also shows how brutal the Ohio gerrymander is, for what it's worth.)

I thought the same thing, but it also has to do with the lack of any bench in the Ohio Democratic Party. I tend to believe some of those Southern States would never be as elastic even in this highly hypothetical cenario comma whereas a lot of Ohio districts if a tsunami of this sort was coming could get decent local candidates to run and flip a number of seats that would fall outside of the mathematical calculus. But yes, the gerrymandering in Ohio is as bad as in any state

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The republican Ohio district that has the best prospects of a dem beating the incumbent, based on the pundits, seems to be the 14th (Joyce). While that district wouldn't flip in any normal scenario, in a year where Virginia 1 is flipping along with a ton of Texas seats and Georgia 12 flips back, I'd expect it to flip as well.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The republican Ohio district that has the best prospects of a dem beating the incumbent, based on the pundits, seems to be the 14th (Joyce). While that district wouldn't flip in any normal scenario, in a year where Virginia 1 is flipping along with a ton of Texas seats and Georgia 12 flips back, I'd expect it to flip as well.

OH-14 could definitely be flipped in even a year like 2012 (i.e. a mildly Democratic-leaning year) with an A-list recruit (although it'd probably start as a lean-R race in such a scenario).  Democrats have no excuse for their recruiting failures there; this is the sort of seat where we should be competing in order to expand the playing field.  I should also add that with good candidates, Joyce, Johnson*, Gibbs*, Turner (either as an open seat or in a Democratic wave), and Renacci's seats could all be pretty competitive under the right circumstances.  Of course, it is true that the Ohio gerrymander is absolutely one of the worst in the country despite looking much cleaner than the maps in states like PA, NC, and MD.

*Would probably require a Democratic wave election.

[Adam Griffin]

OH's gerrymander is intense - as shown by my little project of comparing Dem/GOP vote totals across midterms/presidential elections. It's almost as bad as Wisconsin's, and probably would be worse if OH only had a single-digit number of CDs. If you take 2016 Democratic vote totals and stack it up against 2014 GOP midterm vote totals*, only one district flips: OH-1. This is alongside a broader, national scenario where Democrats win the House 271-164.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH's gerrymander is intense - as shown by my little project of comparing Dem/GOP vote totals across midterms/presidential elections. It's almost as bad as Wisconsin's, and probably would be worse if OH only had a single-digit number of CDs. If you take 2016 Democratic vote totals and stack it up against 2014 GOP midterm vote totals*, only one district flips: OH-1. This is alongside a broader, national scenario where Democrats win the House 271-164.

The thing is that Republicans in OH-1 aren't nearly as elastic as they are in some other districts.  Of course, any remotely reasonable map would have a safe Democratic seat contained entirely within Hamiltin County.

[rob in cal]

  I would have guessed the Libertarian candidate would have gotten more support in the Kansas vote. Say you are a right of center voter and want to protest the various Trump failures or Gov Brownback, but can't bring yourself to vote for a Democrat, you'd think voting Libertarian would have been a nice option, but apparently wasn't for many people.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

  I would have guessed the Libertarian candidate would have gotten more support in the Kansas vote. Say you are a right of center voter and want to protest the various Trump failures or Gov Brownback, but can't bring yourself to vote for a Democrat, you'd think voting Libertarian would have been a nice option, but apparently wasn't for many people.

My guess is that they just didn't turn out to vote at all.

[Crumpets]

Using the ol' Excelorama, plugging in the shift (Pompeo -> Estes, Giroux -> Thompson) across all House seats would see the Dems picking up 99 seats, winning the house 293 to 142.

Obviously that's not going to happen, but it should maybe entice the blue avatars here to cut it out with the gloating.

Maps please

Here's the map. For me the biggest takeaway is just how big those redistricting cases in FL, NC, and VA might end up being.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For results coverage tonight, please follow the main GA-6 thread. I will still post here when I am ready to make a final call on the race, but otherwise coverage will be on the main GA-6 thread.

[The Other Castro]

For results coverage tonight, please follow the main GA-6 thread. I will still post here when I am ready to make a final call on the race, but otherwise coverage will be on the main GA-6 thread.

Then why is this called the results thread if we're not going to talk about results in this thread?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

People are already doing election day stuff on the other thread - turnout reports and the like. This thread will be used for results on the rest of these nights - next one is SC Primary on 5/2 - but unless people really want to switch over here when polls close, I see no reason to veer off from the other thread.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: OSSOFF VS. HANDEL RUNOFF

[The Other Castro]

Well, I should have stayed with my first prediction:

Ossoff 47%
Handel 17%
Gray 12%
Hill 11%
Moody 9%
Other 4%

Runoff

Ossoff 52%
Handel 48%

[Mr. Smith]

Well, I should have stayed with my first prediction:

Ossoff 47%
Handel 17%
Gray 12%
Hill 11%
Moody 9%
Other 4%

Runoff

Ossoff 52%
Handel 48%

For the above, probably.

For the run-off, I'm skeptical.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Looking forward to an exciting runoff! The total R to Total D vote margin was very silm: 51.03% R to 48.89% D. This should be one of the closest runoffs in history. But before it happens, we have other things to watch. The next election is the SC-5 primary on May 2nd.

[GlobeSoc]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

[Roronoa D. Law]

Before 2016 SC-05 would have been Dem best pick opportunity up but muh suburban GA-6 is so glamorous.

[Jeppe]

I hope Alexis Frank wins the nomination. Goldman Sachs executive running for the Dems is bad messaging.

[Maxwell]

Before 2016 SC-05 would have been Dem best pick opportunity up but muh suburban GA-6 is so glamorous.

Meh, SC-5 does not allow much room for error - low ceiling for dems.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

[Figueira]

Hoping for Alexis Frank, not that it's likely to matter much in the end. Still, after Kansas and Georgia, it would be stupid to ignore this entirely.