Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)
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Author Topic: Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)  (Read 198850 times)
Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #825 on: April 23, 2017, 08:48:21 AM »

^ Well, i know that it's possible for Black candidate to win majority-white Southern district. Sometimes - even a rural one. IIRC - in 2007 Black Democrat won state Senate seat in Mississippi which was rural and more then 95% white (he lost it later, but it's another story). But it's still a big rarity... So, my point was that "being Black" doesn't in any way increases electoral chances of candidate in southern majority-white (especially - more or less rural) districts, and to state that such candidate "would be the best, because he/she is Black" is a mistake. Black candidate can win there, but he/she must have other outstanding qualities and "happen to be Black", not be a "Black candidate".

And when i speak about whether such and such area is "Southern" i mean strictly political tradition and preferences. A words of one North Florida political commentator about his state come to mind: "I'm convinced that the further south you drive, the further north you get"...

P.S. The same about white politicians in majority-Black seats: Steve Cohen now wins convincingly, but was regularily primaried by Black candidates, many of whom spoke about "this being a Black seat", before. The same with members of state legislatures (Patricia Todd in Alabama, and some other). Racial polarization in voting is still high enough..

- I don't disagree that it's a much steeper climb, all I was saying is that it's possible. 

- The only part of Florida I think you could really argue isn't southern is the Gold Coast.

- I forget the results in his first race, but Cohen won in his primaries in a landslide every time he sought re-election in TN-9.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #826 on: April 23, 2017, 10:52:19 AM »

I forget the results in his first race, but Cohen won in his primaries in a landslide every time he sought re-election in TN-9.

Cohen won 30-25-12 in his first primary. AFTER that he really won convincingly (the closest being 66-32), but was primaried every election.

P.S. Well, i literally quoted North Florida columnist from Pensacola..
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #827 on: April 23, 2017, 12:30:26 PM »

I forget the results in his first race, but Cohen won in his primaries in a landslide every time he sought re-election in TN-9.

Cohen won 30-25-12 in his first primary. AFTER that he really won convincingly (the closest being 66-32), but was primaried every election.

P.S. Well, i literally quoted North Florida columnist from Pensacola..

- Right, but he sailed through the primaries every time, winning landslide victories without breaking a sweat (against the 2006 runner-up, a former Memphis Mayor, and the President of the Memphis Urban League among others).

- That phrase is the sort of clever albeit highly over-simplified one-line that tends to make for a memorable line and decidedly flawed analysis.  There are conservative areas in south Florida (ex: Lee County) and liberal areas of northern Florida (ex: Leon County).  The fact is that the only area of Florida one could really argue is really more northern than southern is the gold coast.

- P.S.: Writing random words in all-caps or bolding them doesn't make your argument more persuasive.  I understand what you're saying perfectly well; I just think it's an oversimplification that could lead to faulty political analysis.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #828 on: April 23, 2017, 03:03:13 PM »

^ Well, as i already said - let's agree to disagree and respect each other opinions...
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Badger
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« Reply #829 on: April 23, 2017, 04:13:29 PM »


For the Dems: Parnell is a Goldman Sachs executive, Frank is a student and army veteran (and African American), Murphy is a marine veteran who now works for the non-profit Carolina Veterans Commission. Essentially, uninspiring candidates that leave little hope for anti-trump forces, unless one of these is really good at campaigning.

As a rule - i don't believe in African American candidates winning majority white southern districts... There are some rare exceptions on state legislative level, but mostly the vote is too polarized by race.  IMHO, even with Trump this is a closest to Safe R special..

Sanford Bishop would like a word.

His district is about 50-50.  Compare this with SC-05. Democrats need districts to be 40-45% Black minimum, and pray, that 10-15% of whites will still vote Democratic, to have a chance. How many such districts exist? Even Bishop won his district narrowly couple of times (2010, 1996, 2000)..

All I'm saying is that, and I mean this as constructive criticism, you tend to generalize a lot (sometimes you're right, other times you're way off) and it might not be the worst idea to allow for the possibility of exceptions a bit more often.  

Well, if you show me recent examples of such biracial coalition (not pre-2010, but after it, when polarization soared, including - racial one) - i may reconsider my position. Bit so far - i stick to it... It's extremely difficult to elect Black candidate in white-majority Southern districts now. I can fathom that say, in Southern Florida or Research Triangle (which are more or less "non-siuthern" politically), but not in many ither places.. In "typical" southern districts correlation between Democratc aand Black percentages is very strong...

Senator Tim Scott says hi, both as Senator from South Carolina and Congressman from SC-1.  

Not all African-Americans are Democrats.  It is perfectly possible for a black Republican to win in the South a majority white district.

This is true. There are some African-American Republican politicians who enjoy white support. Though almost all African American voters are indeed Democrats.
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« Reply #830 on: April 28, 2017, 08:23:24 AM »


Senator Tim Scott says hi, both as Senator from South Carolina and Congressman from SC-1.  

Not all African-Americans are Democrats.  It is perfectly possible for a black Republican to win in the South a majority white district.

I think Scott is a very nice, friendly guy... but not a great Senator at all.  Just listening to some of his speeches during the Devos 24 hour Senate session, etc ... a 6th grader can string together a more logical speech. 

I don't think Scott would have ever won the Senate seat, had he not 1st been appointed by Haley.  This gave him time to build up some popularity as the only Black Republican Senator (and from South Carolina at that).  I'm sure he was a decent Congressman- but seems out of his depth as Senator... Good thing he was dating one of Nikki's friends when it came time to appoint a new Senator. 

That said- I would rather have an ineffective Republican Senator than a Strong Republican Senator.  But on the other hand- a Black Republican Senator will be almost impossible to ever beat in SC. 

But I've heard there is a slight chance Scott could run for Governor in 2018... which I think would be a Much better fit for him than Senator.  (Although with him just winning re-election, its hard to imagine).

.... if he were to run for Governor- he would definitely win... And I Think Mark Sanford really wants his Senate seat, if it came open.
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« Reply #831 on: May 02, 2017, 04:22:27 PM »

Today is the South Carolina 5 primary​! It's time to find out who will be facing off for Mick Mulvaney's old seat in June! Polls close in under two hours. Results by county will be here: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/SC_US_House_0502.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
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« Reply #832 on: May 02, 2017, 05:28:13 PM »

NYT results map: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/south-carolina-house-special-election-primary
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #833 on: May 02, 2017, 05:29:00 PM »


Thank you.
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« Reply #834 on: May 02, 2017, 06:43:47 PM »

Early vote starting to drift in:

 Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Ralph Norman
95   42.6%   
Tommy Pope
77   34.5   
Chad Connelly
35   15.7   
Sheri Few
10   4.5   
Tom Mullikin
4   1.8   
Kris Wampler
2   0.9   
Ray Craig
0   0.0

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Archie Parnell
85   55.2%   
Les Murphy
58   37.7   
Alexis Frank
11   7.1   
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« Reply #835 on: May 02, 2017, 06:53:13 PM »

1% of the vote is in.

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
1,063   44.1%   
Ralph Norman
862   35.8   
Tom Mullikin
208   8.6   
Chad Connelly
207   8.6   
Sheri Few
57   2.4   
Kris Wampler
9   0.4   
Ray Craig
3   0.1

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Archie Parnell
866   70.4%   
Alexis Frank
206   16.7   
Les Murphy
158   12.8   
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OneJ
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« Reply #836 on: May 02, 2017, 07:07:35 PM »

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
2,540   38.5%   
Ralph Norman
1,788   27.1   
Tom Mullikin
1,193   18.1   
 Others   1,075   16.3   
15% reporting (52 of 358 precincts)

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« Reply #837 on: May 02, 2017, 07:07:59 PM »

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Archie Parnell
2,892   73.1%   
Alexis Frank
768   19.4   
Les Murphy
297   7.5   
15% reporting (52 of 358 precincts)
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« Reply #838 on: May 02, 2017, 07:12:06 PM »

Calling the democratic primary for Parnell!

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Archie Parnell
3,162   73.8%   

Alexis Frank
813   19.0   
Les Murphy
310   7.2   
17% reporting (61 of 358 precincts)

Republican Primary so far:

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
2,576   37.8%   
Ralph Norman
1,807   26.5   
Tom Mullikin
1,277   18.8   
Chad Connelly
858   12.6   
Sheri Few
254   3.7   
Kris Wampler
21   0.3   
Ray Craig
16   0.2   
17% reporting (61 of 358 precincts)
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« Reply #839 on: May 02, 2017, 07:18:30 PM »

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
3,221   35.2%   
Ralph Norman
2,443   26.7   
Tom Mullikin
1,844   20.1   
Chad Connelly
1,242   13.6   
Sheri Few
354   3.9   
Kris Wampler
28   0.3   
Ray Craig
23   0.3   
25% reporting (91 of 358 precincts)


Remember that there is a runoff if no one reaches 50%.
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« Reply #840 on: May 02, 2017, 07:24:03 PM »

Democratic Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Archie Parnell
4,191   72.6%   
Alexis Frank
1,142   19.8   
Les Murphy
442   7.7   
27% reporting (97 of 358 precincts)
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« Reply #841 on: May 02, 2017, 07:33:39 PM »

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
4,621   32.2%   
Ralph Norman
3,930   27.4   
Tom Mullikin
3,017   21.0   
Chad Connelly
2,002   14.0   
Sheri Few
676   4.7   
Kris Wampler
56   0.4   
Ray Craig
33   0.2   
41% reporting (145 of 358 precincts)
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« Reply #842 on: May 02, 2017, 07:44:04 PM »

Calling the republican primary - it'll be a runoff between Pope and Norman!

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
5,447   31.1%   
Ralph Norman
4,596   26.3   

Tom Mullikin
3,317   19.0   
Chad Connelly
3,283   18.8   
Sheri Few
744   4.3   
Kris Wampler
69   0.4   
Ray Craig
44   0.3   
50% reporting (179 of 358 precincts)
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« Reply #843 on: May 02, 2017, 07:58:34 PM »

Not impossible for Norman to overtake Pope for first, but regardless, it's a runoff as no one is getting to 50%.

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
7,102   30.8%   
Ralph Norman
6,443   27.9   

Tom Mullikin
4,289   18.6   
Chad Connelly
4,021   17.4   
Sheri Few
1,083   4.7   
Kris Wampler
92   0.4   
Ray Craig
56   0.2   
68% reporting (243 of 358 precincts)
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« Reply #844 on: May 02, 2017, 08:01:18 PM »

It's dogfight to see who wins the initial R round:

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
7,666   30.9%   
Ralph Norman
7,429   29.9   

Tom Mullikin
4,381   17.7   
Chad Connelly
4,059   16.4   
Sheri Few
1,115   4.5   
Kris Wampler
98   0.4   
Ray Craig
59   0.2   
70% reporting (249 of 358 precincts)
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #845 on: May 02, 2017, 08:12:11 PM »

Anyone know why Chester and Kershaw counties still haven't reported anything yet (according to NYT)?
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« Reply #846 on: May 02, 2017, 08:17:02 PM »

Some York + Kershaw remain

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
8,660   31.1%   
Ralph Norman
8,397   30.1   

Tom Mullikin
4,852   17.4   
Chad Connelly
4,454   16.0   
Sheri Few
1,310   4.7   
Kris Wampler
127   0.5   
Ray Craig
61   0.2   
79% reporting (282 of 358 precincts)

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« Reply #847 on: May 02, 2017, 08:19:32 PM »

Norman now in first!

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Ralph Norman
9,395   31.5%   
Tommy Pope
9,087   30.4   

Tom Mullikin
5,106   17.1   
Chad Connelly
4,680   15.7   
Sheri Few
1,367   4.6   
Kris Wampler
151   0.5   
Ray Craig
64   0.2   
82% reporting (293 of 358 precincts)
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« Reply #848 on: May 02, 2017, 08:27:21 PM »

This is super fun to watch. Not sure which I'll support, but I'm leaning towards Norman, sort of.

Glad Sheri Few is going nowhere (see this).
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« Reply #849 on: May 02, 2017, 09:06:42 PM »

With all of York in, Pope barely goes back into first. All that is left now is Kershaw.

Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.   
Tommy Pope
11,409   32.6%   
Ralph Norman
11,373   32.5
   
Tom Mullikin
5,498   15.7   
Chad Connelly
4,945   14.1   
Sheri Few
1,536   4.4   
Kris Wampler
186   0.5   
Ray Craig
74   0.2   
91% reporting (324 of 358 precincts)
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