Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[GlobeSoc]

I'm going to make a very bold prediction on KS-4
50% (D)
47% (R)
3% (L)

Brownback is extremely unpopular, which would act to suppress Democratic defections and drive up their turnout on election night, while creating the potential for some moderate registered republicans to actually be voting dem as a rebuke to Brownback. Obama no longer being president also means that Republican turnout overall may go down, and Trump being president will drive turnout of Democrats up.

[GlobeSoc]

Prediction:
Ron Estes (R) 50%
James Thompson (D) 36%
Chris Rockhold (Ltn) 4%

Implying you predict 10% of all ballots are invalid

[GlobeSoc]

Does anyone else think it's possible that internal poll is right an there could be a huge crossover vote from reps who are sick of Brownback/local rep leadership?

Yes, in fact one of the main questions I am going to have answered tonight is which faction of Republicans are turning out, moderates who defect or Brownbackers who won't. In fact, the Kansas republican civil war is what made me make my bold prediction in the first place, in spite of the republican lead in early voting.

[GlobeSoc]

Sedgwick is still almost completely out

[GlobeSoc]

Could someone construct a swing map of the counties?

[GlobeSoc]

Who's who for thé SC-5 candidates?

[GlobeSoc]

Yeah, SC-05 seems like if it has a similar swing as other specials, it would indicate that either southern wwc turnout is severely depressed or that that demographic gained massive elasticity out of nowhere. Either scenario would backfire the southern republican gerrymanders if it continued through 2018 and result in the unraveling of the republican caucus.

For this reason, I would say that the swing will only be 2-5 points to the democrats in the district. Even if on election night the early vote comes in 90% democrat I am still going to think the republican will win.

[GlobeSoc]

Great news, DCCC putting some money ($275,000) in SC-5 for Parnell.

http://www.postandcourier.com/news/national-democrats-making-modest-investment-in-south-carolina-race-to/article_69adf2f6-4a2b-11e7-8289-c776fc08cfce.html

I've been talking to some people there, and they wouldn't have put this money in unless their internals had tightened, or if the GOP is spending money as well.

Even if I don't like him, having a dem in rural white south would be nice.

[GlobeSoc]

What's colbert county doing on the dem side?

[GlobeSoc]

It seems to me that Huntsville doesn't have the votes to get Brooks into 2nd

[GlobeSoc]

Is there an AL-Sen county map?

[GlobeSoc]

Is there an AL-Sen county map?

On NY Times page, i think...

I was thinking of one with percentages in each county

[GlobeSoc]

Is there an AL-Sen county map?

On NY Times page, i think...

I was thinking of one with percentages in each county

That's what you get if you mouse over the NYT county map ...

Visually, like with different shades of the same color for the strength of their vote share.

[GlobeSoc]

Politico has an article this morning about the OH-12 race.

Is Rep. Jordon a Democratic Party mole? He seems like he is the Democrats' best friend, again, and again.

No, he's just fiscally 1980s socially 1980s generally 1980s